HOUSTON, March 19, 2026, 14:30 CDT
Oil prices whipsawed Thursday as Iran struck energy sites throughout the Gulf. Brent crude surged as high as $119 a barrel, then slid back, changing hands at $108.46 by 12:39 p.m. CDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate hit $100.02 before settling at $96.77. Meanwhile, Dubai and Oman crude premiums set fresh records, approaching $65 a barrel. “This pullback from the highs suggests the market has gained more confidence in supply,” said Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group. Reuters
The equation has shifted. Instead of just betting on a chokepoint pinch near the Strait of Hormuz, traders are now factoring in the risk of outright strikes on gas and refinery infrastructure—a move Lloyds strategist Nick Kennedy labeled a “clear escalation.” That’s pushed the market’s time horizon out: lost supply isn’t just a short blip, it could drag on for months. Reuters
The implications go beyond crude. According to the IMF, a lasting 10% jump in energy prices would tack on roughly 0.4 percentage point to global inflation and slow growth. The International Energy Agency noted that member states have already begun tapping into emergency reserves. Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan also signaled willingness to help keep Hormuz open and collaborate with producers to steady markets. Reuters
Brent kept pulling away from WTI, with the spread between the two benchmarks stretching out to $12.05 on Wednesday—the widest margin since March 2015. That gap handed traders an arbitrage play: buy U.S. crude on the cheap and move it into pricier overseas markets. According to Signal Maritime’s Georgios Sakellariou, more cargoes out of the U.S. Gulf were getting booked for late March and early April. Neil Crosby at Sparta Commodities pointed to infrastructure attacks as the main driver lifting Brent at this point. Reuters
The shift is clear: Asian refiners are moving U.S. crude through the Panama Canal on medium-sized tankers—an unusual move lately, given the premium per barrel. Buyers are “scrambling to get whatever barrels they can,” Kpler analyst Matt Smith told Reuters, with speed winning out over cost. Reuters
The physical toll is proving tough to ignore. Strikes have sidelined 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity for as long as five years, QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said. Shell is a partner at the hit Pearl gas-to-liquids facility, while Exxon has interests in the LNG trains that took damage. “For production to restart, first we need hostilities to cease,” Kaabi told reporters. Reuters
Crude markets are feeling the impact, as major buyers start redrawing their supply lines. Ryosuke Tsugaru, a senior executive at Japan’s JERA, warned that if 90 million metric tons of Middle East LNG disappears from the global market, spot prices and volatility will climb. Buyers, he said, would pivot to sources outside the Middle East—namely the U.S. and Canada. Reuters
Stocks took the blow alongside oil, with the S&P 500 energy sector alone holding its ground as equities broadly retreated and bond yields edged up. Investors faced the question of how central banks might handle the oil surge. Michael Arone of State Street called it a “holding pattern” for policymakers, who are now working the conflict into their forecasts. Reuters
The rally could fizzle out just as quickly as it started, or it might even gather steam. Goldman Sachs is sticking to its main scenario: oil flows pick up again by April, Brent slides back into the $70s by the fourth quarter. But there’s a catch. If supply disruptions drag on or the Strait of Hormuz remains bottlenecked, the bank cautions that oil may stay above $100—and could test the 2008 record. Reuters
