Veldhoven, Netherlands, April 26, 2026, 00:03 CEST
Shares of ASML Holding N.V. in Amsterdam climbed 2.3% late Friday. The bigger question for the Dutch chip-gear maker: Can it translate AI demand into shipments quickly enough, especially with TSMC holding off on its most advanced systems? High-NA EUV—the company’s high-resolution extreme ultraviolet lithography—lets customers etch finer chip details, but Bloomberg puts the price tag north of €350 million, or $410 million, per machine.
This is why it’s crucial right now. ASML has carved out a chokepoint in the semiconductor supply chain—its EUV machines are indispensable for the top chipmakers chasing leading-edge processors. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are still ramping up their spending on AI infrastructure. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that ASML aims to ship at least 60 standard EUV machines in 2026 and 80 the following year, all while putting about $2.2 billion into capacity expansion this year.
ASML has already pushed expectations higher. Earlier this month, the company reported net sales of €8.8 billion for the first quarter, pulling in €2.8 billion in net income. It also bumped up its 2026 sales forecast, now targeting €36 billion to €40 billion. CEO Christophe Fouquet flagged “very strong” order intake, noting that “demand for chips is outpacing supply.” He said the new guidance factors in possible scenarios tied to export-control discussions. ASML
The risks go right to the heart of ASML’s business. At the company’s annual meeting, Fouquet warned investors that missing delivery deadlines could push clients toward rivals or alternative tech. Being a bottleneck? ASML wants none of it—Fouquet called avoiding that “something ASML would avoid by all possible means.” On U.S. restrictions targeting China, CFO Roger Dassen said it’s still too soon to gauge the impact. China is projected to account for 20% of 2026 sales, but Dassen said demand for chip capacity will persist somewhere in the supply chain. Reuters
TSMC, widely recognized as ASML’s largest client, just introduced another layer of uncertainty. The Taiwanese chipmaker unveiled its A13 and N2U technologies, and signaled it’s sticking with current ASML EUV tools for now instead of jumping into the pricey High-NA machines, which Reuters has put at about $400 million apiece—twice as much as the previous models. “Leveraging existing EUV technology” is one of TSMC’s strengths, according to executive Kevin Zhang, who praised the firm’s R&D efforts. Reuters
Analysts, for their part, urged caution. Francois-Xavier Bouvignies at UBS told MarketWatch that TSMC’s comments might just reflect timing, not a fundamental change in direction. Citigroup analysts pointed out Intel and Samsung are still relatively upbeat on High-NA adoption. Bernstein weighed in as well, noting the delay “probably shouldn’t be a surprise” and suggesting slower High-NA uptake could be “neutral, or even positive,” for ASML if it bolsters demand for existing EUV tools and related upgrades. MarketWatch
So Intel and Samsung are in play again. Should one of them pick up the pace on High-NA, ASML’s latest machine won’t be riding just on TSMC. If they both hold back, the sales trajectory gets murkier. Right now, TSMC’s decision lets the market draw a line between chip demand for AI and orders for ASML’s priciest gear.
European semiconductor and electrical-equipment stocks held their ground this week. Investors betting on AI demand sent shares of ASM International, ASML, and BE Semiconductor higher, according to Reuters, as the hunt for data-center and chip exposure continued.
Investors face a fresh hurdle: visibility is dropping. Ahead of ASML’s earnings, Bloomberg noted the company plans to stop disclosing quarterly order figures—a stat that has regularly swayed the stock. Now, shareholders must piece together signals from ASML’s own guidance, clues from customer budgets, and what chipmakers are saying.
Shareholder payouts aren’t front and center this week, but they’re still in the mix. ASML’s shareholders have cleared a final dividend payout of €2.70 per share, which lifts the 2025 dividend to €7.50 overall. The board also has the green light to buy back as much as 10% of issued shares through October 2027.
So the immediate question for ASML stock isn’t about AI’s hunger for chips—it’s clear that demand is there. What’s less certain: Can ASML actually ship enough regular EUV machines now, then convince buyers to shell out for High-NA systems down the line? And with China curbs in play, does ASML risk its top market standing becoming a problem of too much capacity?
