Chicago, April 30, 2026, 08:02 (CDT)
TransUnion sees the U.S. consumer credit landscape dividing more acutely—on one end, a greater share of borrowers are landing in the top credit tier. On the other, non-prime consumers are racking up more debt, and cracks are starting to show.
This is coming up now since lenders haven’t stopped making loans, though they’re more cautious, tightening up as household expenses hold steady at elevated levels. According to TransUnion, which published the study with its first-quarter 2026 Credit Industry Insights Report, super-prime borrowers increased by 15 million from late 2019 through late 2025. Meanwhile, debt-to-income ratios climbed for many near-prime and subprime consumers—a sign that their debt loads are getting heavier compared to their earnings.
Mortgages, credit cards, personal loans—the gap is widening across them all. National Mortgage News has flagged debt-to-income ratios that are now topping pre-pandemic highs, especially for non-prime borrowers. Analysts are calling it a K-shaped economy: households with stability keep moving ahead, while those under pressure are slipping further behind.
Michele Raneri, who leads U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion, told National Mortgage News there’s “more stress on the lower end than in 2019.” According to the outlet, near-prime borrowers saw their back-end debt-to-income ratios jump by 220 basis points, reaching 21%. Subprime DTI ratios weren’t far behind, climbing 210 basis points to hit 17.7%. (One basis point equals a hundredth of a percentage point.) National Mortgage News
TransUnion flagged a sharper climb in non-mortgage debt burdens for borrowers with weaker credit. Its latest data put near-prime non-mortgage DTI at 16.5% in late 2025—up from 14.7% six years earlier. Subprime borrowers saw an increase too, hitting 14.3% from 12.8%. Super-prime? Not much change there: 5.4% versus 5.1%.
Credit cards are still where the strain shows up. Bankcard balances climbed 4.6% year-over-year, hitting $1.12 trillion in the first quarter, TransUnion reports. The share of borrowers at least 90 days behind rose by 10 basis points to 2.53%. Paul Siegfried, senior vice president at TransUnion, pointed to “smaller credit limits on new accounts” as a factor keeping delinquency from moving much. TransUnion Newsroom
Personal loan activity notched fresh highs again. TransUnion reported 7.6 million originations in the fourth quarter, a 21.7% jump compared to the prior year. Outstanding balances climbed to $277 billion in the first quarter. “More targeted,” is how Josh Turnbull, senior vice president for consumer lending, described the growth, noting lenders are giving out smaller balances and keeping stricter checks on subprime customers. TransUnion Newsroom
Mortgage numbers painted a mixed picture. Originations climbed 12.8% to 1.39 million during the fourth quarter, thanks in large part to a 90% spike in rate-and-term refinancing. But the share of consumer mortgages at least 60 days delinquent edged up to 1.57%. Satyan Merchant, senior vice president for automotive and mortgage at TransUnion, noted that rising rates expected in early 2026 could cool down activity.
Riskier borrowers haven’t been shut out entirely. According to TransUnion, banks’ subprime card originations increased by 220 basis points between Q3 2019 and Q3 2025, with deep-subprime rising 320 basis points. Still, there’s a big gap in credit lines: super-prime accounts opened at $12,511, while deep subprime saw just $678 and high subprime $1,034.
The credit report came out just two days after TransUnion posted first-quarter revenue of $1.25 billion, a 14% jump from the same period last year, and bumped up its 2026 outlook on the back of fresh deals, among them a new majority stake in Trans Union de Mexico. CEO Chris Cartwright described the results as a “strong quarter of outperformance,” but flagged some market uncertainty as well. TransUnion Newsroom
Discussion among investors has zeroed in on growth drivers. Sandpiper Investment Research, writing on Seeking Alpha, bumped TransUnion to a “strong buy” based on organic growth, the Mexico acquisition, and valuation. The report also pointed out a 24% jump in U.S. Financial Services revenue, with mortgage revenue up 50% for the quarter. Seeking Alpha
It’s not just TransUnion in the spotlight here. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau names the company as one of the country’s three major consumer-reporting agencies, together with Equifax and Experian. These three provide reports packed with payment records and credit-usage details—data that lenders use to decide whether or not to extend credit.
This isn’t just another straightforward credit-crisis warning. National Mortgage News pointed out debt-to-income ratios haven’t breached the familiar 28/36 mortgage rule used by certain lenders, and according to TransUnion, lenders are still keeping non-prime access intact. The concern: if inflation bites harder, rates stay high, or the job market stumbles, borrowers lower on the credit ladder could run out of slack to handle another hit.
