Tysons Corner, Virginia — May 4, 2026, 07:02 EDT
- Strategy is set to release its first-quarter numbers after the U.S. market wraps up Tuesday.
- Options markets now imply an 8.07% swing for MSTR shares following the report.
- After hitting pause on bitcoin buys this week, the company’s holdings stand at 818,334 bitcoin.
Strategy Inc shares pushed higher in early Monday trade, as investors braced for a first-quarter earnings update—one that’s likely to put the company’s sizeable bitcoin-backed balance sheet and its ongoing stock-for-token strategy under the microscope.
Timing is key here. MSTR’s been riding bitcoin’s rally lately, though the stock remains well below where it was a year ago. That puts the focus away from software revenue for Tuesday’s report—investors are watching to see if there’s still an appetite for this leveraged bitcoin play. Strategy shares last changed hands at $177.17, up $11.77 from the close. Bitcoin hovered around $78,900.
Strategy plans to release its first-quarter 2026 results once U.S. trading wraps up on May 5, with a video webinar scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern. The company, which claims to be the world’s first and biggest bitcoin treasury, also continues to operate its enterprise analytics software line.
Options markets are pricing in a potential 8.07% swing for MSTR after its earnings release, according to TipRanks. That’s a noticeably smaller move than the 11% average absolute change the stock has logged over the previous four quarters. The implied move, taken from the options market, gives a sense of how much traders anticipate shares could shift following the event.
Latest snapshot from the balance sheet: Strategy offloaded 1,451,601 Class A shares through an at-the-market program, according to a securities filing. The move pulled in $255 million in net proceeds from April 20 to 26. Proceeds went straight to buying 3,273 bitcoin at an average price of $77,906.
Strategy owned 818,334 bitcoin as of April 26, according to the filing, acquired for roughly $61.81 billion—an average of $75,537 per coin. That figure matches what’s posted on its purchases page. With this, MSTR is now heavily tethered to bitcoin’s moves, well beyond its usual quarterly software results.
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor paused ahead of earnings, posting on X: “No buys this week. Back to work next week.” That message came after the April 27 filing detailing a $255 million purchase, turning what’s usually a straightforward weekly buy into an earnings-week question mark. X (formerly Twitter)
Randy Binner at Texas Capital Securities bumped his price target on Strategy up to $225 from $200, holding his Buy rating, according to TipRanks. He’s now modeling mNAV at 1.25 times, compared to his previous 1.19 times call—tracking the premium or discount to the company’s bitcoin stash.
Binner bumped up his 2026 capital issuance outlook to $20 billion, up from his previous $17 billion call, pointing to the $11 billion raised so far this year. He’s sticking with his usual 10% to 12% average annual bitcoin appreciation assumption. As for the CLARITY Act—the crypto market-structure legislation—he noted that chances for passage have faded, but he’s not counting it out just yet: “there is still time” for it to move. TipRanks
Peer names are holding up, at least for the moment. Barron’s noted Monday that Coinbase and Robinhood were both climbing in premarket hours, spurred by bitcoin’s jump past $80,000. Strategy’s action is falling in with a wider lift across crypto-exposed stocks, not standing out as an isolated play.
Still, the risk cuts both ways. Should bitcoin falter or markets lose steam, Strategy may be forced into a tighter corner—deciding whether to load up on more bitcoin, issue additional shares, or shield current investors from dilution. TipRanks’ AI analyst is holding at Neutral on MSTR, pointing to soft financials, negative cash flow, and the leverage-driven swings in the stock.
