HSINCHU, Taiwan, May 15, 2026, 01:04 (UTC+8)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd has raised its outlook for the global semiconductor market, projecting it will surpass $1.5 trillion by 2030. The company’s earlier estimate was $1 trillion.
- TSMC’s presentation materials put AI and high-performance computing at 55% of that market.
- The company is rolling out new fabs, ramping up 2-nanometer production and advanced packaging, while Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom scramble for limited top-tier capacity.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd bumped up its long-term forecast for the chip sector on Thursday, projecting the global semiconductor market will top $1.5 trillion by 2030. That’s a sharp increase from TSMC’s earlier $1 trillion estimate, with the company pointing to surging artificial intelligence demand spurring quicker expansion of advanced manufacturing.
That’s what puts the forecast in focus. TSMC’s slides from its Taiwan Technology Symposium lay it out: AI and high-performance computing chips—those powering data centers and other demanding tasks—are set to account for 55% of the market. Smartphones will make up 20%, automotive chips 10%.
Demand isn’t the sole issue here—it’s supply, too. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom have largely locked up all of TSMC’s 3-nanometer AI chip capacity, Reuters said Wednesday. “TSMC is the real bottleneck,” summed up SemiAnalysis President Doug O’Loughlin. Reuters
TSMC is pushing ahead with expansion, aiming to build out nine phases of wafer fabs and advanced packaging sites during this year. The company says capacity increases will come even quicker in 2025 and 2026. Looking at the technology itself, TSMC projects that its 2-nanometer node and the A16 process are set to scale up, targeting a compound annual growth rate of 70% between 2026 and 2028.
The company put packaging to work—a less headline-grabbing side of chipmaking, but crucial these days for AI hardware. TSMC’s CoWoS, or Chip on Wafer on Substrate, stacks processors right up against high-bandwidth memory, letting data zip between them. From 2022 through 2027, CoWoS capacity is expected to climb by over 80% a year.
Executives at the Hsinchu event rolled out details on the A13, A12, and N2U processes, with an expanded CoWoS roadmap also in the spotlight. TSMC vice president for business development Yuan Li-pen said the company’s main CoWoS packaging solution is delivering yields over 98%. Upgrades down the line are targeting integration of more high-bandwidth memory chips for AI systems.
The expansion stretches worldwide, but Taiwan still anchors TSMC’s operations. The chipmaker said its initial Arizona plant is already producing, while tool installation for the second facility is set to start in the back half of 2026. Construction on a third fab is ongoing. Plans for a fourth plant and the site’s first advanced packaging line are slated to get underway this year. Over in Japan, TSMC said it’s bumping up the second fab to 3-nanometer tech, citing robust demand.
TSMC’s latest numbers reflect the pressure of a rapid cycle. April revenue climbed 17.5% year-on-year to NT$410.73 billion, though that figure slipped 1.1% from March. For the year to date through April, revenue posted a 29.9% gain over the prior period. Looking ahead, TSMC projects second-quarter revenue in the $39 billion to $40.2 billion range, topping the $35.90 billion reported in the first quarter.
Last month, Chief Executive C.C. Wei told analysts that demand tied to AI was still “extremely robust,” adding that TSMC sees a “multi-year AI megatrend” ahead. Over at Quilter Cheviot, technology research head Ben Barringer echoed that view to Reuters, saying “TSMC’s fabs are running hot” and that the AI momentum “keeps delivering.” Reuters
Samsung Electronics and Intel are still the main contenders to track on the manufacturing front. According to Focus Taiwan, TSMC’s latest packaging announcement followed talk of Intel and Samsung making progress. Reuters, however, reported this week that Intel’s foundry business — which manufactures chips for third-party designers — still faces serious doubts about whether it can turn into a reliable, profitable competitor.
Still, things can unravel. Reuters says around 10 Chinese companies got the green light from the U.S. to purchase Nvidia H200 AI chips, but shipments haven’t happened yet—export restrictions and China’s own chip ambitions remain big hurdles, even for buyers with approval. “The AI trend is real,” Northlight Asset Management’s Chris Zaccarelli told Reuters, but he warned investors could be “pulling a little too much forward from the future.” Reuters
Geopolitics remains the wild card. On Polymarket, bets on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2027 stand at 7%. Not a high probability, but for a firm embedded in the global advanced chip supply chain, it’s hardly negligible.
TSMC’s updated outlook isn’t really a cause for celebration—think of it as a production goal. Sure, the $1.5 trillion figure is credible for the sector. But getting there? That depends on whether the company can secure enough wafers, boost packaging capacity, and bring in the right talent before its clients decide to move on.
