NEW YORK, June 5, 2026, 19:02 EDT
- U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Friday, reversing a two-day climb as revised weather models trimmed forecasts for cooling demand.
- The market remains tighter than it was a week ago, following a storage build that came in below forecasts and as LNG feedgas has started to recover.
- Traders look to see if strong heat and exports will balance out near-record output and the impact of ongoing plant maintenance.
Natural gas futures in the U.S. slid Friday, trimming gains from earlier in the week when warmer weather and a supportive storage report boosted prices. July gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled down 3.2% at $3.229 per million British thermal units. For the week, the contract slipped 1.9%.
The shift is important as the market heads into the summer demand season, making it harder to argue for easy downside. Gas storage remains above the five-year norm, although the gap tightened after the Energy Information Administration posted a 95 Bcf storage build for the week ended May 29. That came in under both market expectations and the typical five-year increase.
Weather is taking center stage for now. NatGasWeather.com reported that both overnight and midday model runs cut several cooling degree days in the 9- to 15-day outlook, trimming expectations for hotter weather and air-conditioning use. That shift sparked selling after a two-day bounce.
Gas futures moved higher Thursday after EIA reported a smaller storage build and weather models turned hotter. July Nymex gas gained 3.8% that day, according to Barchart, after storage came in under forecasts and Commodity Weather Group called for above-normal heat in the Midwest and Northeast through June 13.
Storage doesn’t just offer downside protection now. S&P Global reported inventories climbed to 2.578 trillion cubic feet for the week ended May 29. That puts inventories 138 Bcf, or 5.7%, over the five-year average, but still 3 Bcf under last year’s level. South Central storage, a Henry Hub price driver, is also tighter versus a year ago.
Nymex natural gas could keep seeing support into early summer if regional markets keep tightening, even without weather-driven demand, EBW Analytics’ Eli Rubin said in a note, according to Dow Jones.
LNG flows have made U.S. gas trade choppy this week. Feedgas sent to LNG export terminals dropped to the lowest in four months as spring maintenance cut output at plants like Golden Pass, backed by Exxon Mobil and QatarEnergy, and Freeport LNG in Texas. Average feedgas volumes to the nine big U.S. LNG export terminals dropped to 16.0 Bcf per day in June so far, down from 17.1 Bcf per day in May and the 18.8 Bcf per day record in April, according to Reuters.
US LNG exports dropped to 10.2 million metric tons in May as maintenance work hit plants, the lowest level so far this year except for February. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass, Freeport, Cameron LNG, and Golden Pass all reported outages or less gas due to planned work or commissioning.
Cheniere is still the top U.S. LNG exporter, but the latest numbers give a mixed picture. Europe stayed the largest buyer of U.S. LNG in May, though Asian demand hit its highest in a year as Japan-Korea Marker prices stayed above Europe’s TTF benchmark, according to Reuters.
Rally in natural gas can fade just as fast. A shift to cooler weather, more time with LNG feedgas curbed, or higher U.S. output could push storage levels back up and take the steam out of prices early this summer. Barchart said Lower 48 dry gas output hit 108.7 Bcf per day on Thursday, a 1.8% gain from a year ago. EIA has now upped its U.S. dry gas production estimate for 2026.
Traders now have a tighter setup compared to May. Gas supplies aren’t short, but inventories aren’t as comfortable as the top-line surplus implies. The next round of forecasts should help show if Friday’s drop was just some profit-taking, or a sign that another sell-the-rally move is coming.
