NEW YORK, July 15, 2026, 11:10 a.m. EDT
- China approved Apple Intelligence following early numbers showing Apple’s mainland shipments up 24.4% in Q2, as the overall market slipped 4.3%.
- Apple hit a new high of $325.65, then traded at $324.03. That puts Apple’s market cap at $4.77 trillion, 39.2 times its trailing earnings.
Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL got regulatory clearance for its Apple Intelligence product in China on Wednesday, moving the focus for investors to the staying power of Apple’s recent rebound in the country. The rally started before Apple Intelligence launched. IDC’s estimates, rounded, show Apple shipped about 2.4 million more iPhones year-on-year in mainland China in the June quarter.
The point is, the stock is set up for another move. Apple was up 2.9% to $324.03 late in the morning, hitting a new intraday high and tacking on roughly $135 billion in market cap. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.24%.
China’s cyberspace regulator said Apple Intelligence was one of seven phone-based generative AI services to finish registration, which is needed before they can launch to the public. The notice did not say when Apple Intelligence might be released in China. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. NYSE:BABA said its Qwen AI model is set to work with Apple’s iPhone, iPad, Mac and Vision Pro devices in China. Baidu Inc. NASDAQ:BIDU said it is also working with Apple to bring features to Chinese iPhone users. On-device AI keeps some processing on the phone itself.
Early IDC numbers point to a stark divide between Apple and the rest of the market:
| Company or market | Q2 2026 share | Q2 2025 share | Shipment growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huawei | 22.6% | 18.1% | up 19.4% |
| Apple | 18.1% | 13.9% | up 24.4% |
| Xiaomi Corp. HKG:1810 | 12.4% | 15.1% | fell 21.7% |
| China smartphone market | 100.0% | 100.0% | down 4.3% |
Preliminary numbers are rounded.
Applying Apple’s share to IDC’s 66 million-unit estimate, Apple moved about 11.9 million phones, up from 9.6 million in the same period last year. It’s an increase, but not enough to confirm a new AI-fueled device replacement wave. “Huawei and Apple held their prices steady while competitors were raising theirs,” said IDC analyst Arthur Guo. IDC said some promotions and talk of second-half Apple price hikes also pushed buyers to act early. IDC
Apple’s Greater China business was already picking up before this week’s registration. Net sales in the region climbed 28% to $20.5 billion in the March quarter, making up 18.4% of its total revenue. Apple credited most of the gain to iPhone. The shipment and revenue numbers track different timeframes and areas, but both suggest the recovery started before any local Apple Intelligence launch.
Wall Street is split on whether Apple can keep up its strength with higher prices. KeyBanc Capital Markets’ Brandon Nispel downgraded Apple to Underweight, set a $250 target, and pointed to slower device upgrades. He sees Services growing 7% in fiscal 2027, well below the nearly 12% the market is pricing in. But Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS analyst Erik Woodring stuck with his Overweight call and $360 target, saying product price hikes could add 2% to 4% to fiscal Q3 EPS and about 1% to fiscal 2027 EPS.
| Analyst view | Rating | Target | Move from $324.03 | Main assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc | Underweight | $250 | -22.8% | Higher prices weigh on hardware and Services growth |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $360 | +11.1% | Company keeps pricing power even as component costs rise |
Investors see a simple story here. Getting China approval lifts the bull case, but that doesn’t mean new revenue right away. Apple has to use this to drive more upgrades, hold on to customers longer or push up Services. The stock trades at 39.2 times trailing earnings, so there’s not much room for delays, a weak rollout or no bump in replacement rates.
Clearance isn’t a launch. Apple still needs to rely on local AI models, and there’s no timeline from regulators. IDC is warning China’s market drop might hit 20% in the second half if things stay as they are. CEO Tim Cook has said “memory costs will drive an increasing impact on our business.” Higher prices could help margins but risk cooling the buying that fueled Apple’s June quarter. Reuters
Apple’s July 30 fiscal Q3 report is next up. Investors are focused on Greater China sales, product margins, and any launch updates. Another quarter of share gains after recent price hikes would back Woodring, while weaker results from pulled-forward demand would help Nispel. Beijing lifted restrictions, but the valuation debate is ongoing.
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