NEW YORK, July 17, 2026, 07:07 EDT
- Opendoor shares ended Thursday at $4.57, falling 3.8%, with 144.1 million shares traded.
- Turnover over two days reached 26.9% of shares outstanding at the end of March, with the price rising just 0.4%.
- Initial calculations indicate second-quarter revenue of about $900 million. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be close to breakeven.
Opendoor Technologies Inc. NASDAQ:OPEN saw a sharp uptick in two-way trading before Friday’s session. Investors exchanged approximately 259.5 million shares on Wednesday and Thursday, representing 26.9% of the company’s shares as of the end of March; the stock price rose just 0.4%.
The minimal change in results hides ongoing debate ahead of the August earnings report. Bulls seek confirmation that quicker home turnovers can balance out ongoing weak housing demand, while bears argue that the stock’s valuation is moving ahead of actual business improvement.
As of 07:07 EDT, U.S. markets had yet to open. Stock-index futures were down, with Nasdaq 100 futures dropping 2.1% as of 04:55 EDT. Opendoor ended Thursday at $4.57, a decline of 3.8%.
| Trading measure | July 15 | July 16 | Two-session result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close | $4.75, rose 4.4% | $4.57, declined 3.8% | 0.4% higher than on July 14 |
| Volume | 115.4 million | 144.1 million | 259.5 million |
| Turnover versus March-end shares | 12.0% | 15.0% | 26.9% |
Calculations are based on 963.3 million shares outstanding as of March 31. Trading volume on Thursday was 2.8 times higher than the stock’s 65-day average.
Combined volume was also 1.4 times higher than the short position reported on June 30. While this does not confirm short covering, it indicates positioning was unusually active.
The valuation gap is still significant following a recent upward revision of the price target. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Ryan Tomasello lifted his target to $2.65 on Monday but maintained an Underperform rating. As of Thursday’s close, the stock price was 72% above his target.
The housing market contracted further this week as the average 30-year mortgage rate increased to 6.55%, up from 6.49%. Homebuilder sentiment dropped to 34 in July, marking its 15th consecutive month below 40. “Many potential buyers remain on the sidelines,” said NAHB chairman Bill Owens. Freddie Mac
This raises the stakes for both parties ahead of the August 4 report. Management has forecast around 25% sequential revenue growth from the first quarter. Contribution margin is targeted at about 6%, while adjusted EBITDA is projected to be close to breakeven. Provisional calculations put second-quarter revenue at approximately $900 million, which would translate to around $54 million in contribution profit at a 6% margin.
First-quarter results indicated gains and challenges. Gross margin improved to 10.0% from 8.6% the previous year. Revenue dropped 38% to $720 million, and net loss increased to $173 million from $85 million.
Inventory dropped to $1.14 billion, compared with $2.36 billion a year before. Cash was reported at $999 million, and non-recourse debt remained near $1.14 billion. While the reduced book limits capital risk, it also increases the need for quicker inventory turnover to drive growth.
Chief Executive Kaz Nejatian outlined the operational strategy in May: “Better acquisitions, faster turns, stronger margins,” he said. “The machine is working.” The August update will now need to provide data to support that assertion. Opendoor Technologies Inc.
Risks are still significant. Higher mortgage rates may reduce resale speed and lead to deeper price reductions. Shifts in inventory levels could offset margin improvements, and high short interest may increase volatility. The company cannot provide an exact reconciliation between its non-GAAP and GAAP outlooks due to uncertainties in valuation items.
The next clean catalyst comes after the market closes on August 4. Investors are able to submit their questions between July 22 and July 29. Turnover is likely to remain volatile in the meantime. Execution remains the key issue.
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