Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares fall after Japan Rubin order highlights more challenging AI demand environment

NEW YORK, July 17, 2026, 08:09 EDT

NVIDIA Corporation was set to open 2.35% down at $202.52 ahead of Friday’s session, with U.S. cash markets yet to open. Shares declined even after news of a new Japan-funded AI factory.

At that level, Nvidia dropped 4.7% from its Wednesday close. Based on a preliminary estimate using the May 15 share count, the market value loss is about $242 billion.

The order appears significant when viewed alone. KeyBanc analyst John Vinh projects Rubin GPU shipments will total between 1.7 million and 1.8 million in 2026. Noetra’s purchase of 27,500 GPUs represents roughly 1.6% of the midpoint of that forecast range.

The unit count is not expected to significantly change annual shipment forecasts. The project’s operating schedule also appears to extend past the coming several quarters.

The 140-megawatt facility is set to deploy 13,750 Vera CPUs. Construction will begin in April 2027, with operations planned to commence in June 2028.

“Japan invented modern manufacturing,” Chief Executive Jensen Huang said in Nvidia’s statement. NVIDIA Investor Relations

The shift in shares signals a broader adjustment. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped over 19% since its late-June peak. The index was on track for its steepest weekly decline since March 2025.

Shares in the AI supply chain moved lower in premarket trading. The following quotes were recorded between 7:26 and 8:03 a.m. EDT.

CompanyThursday closeThursday moveFriday premarketPremarket move
NVIDIA Corporation$207.40-2.40%$202.52-2.35%
Advanced Micro Devices $500.94-5.33%$485.15-3.15%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing $409.74-2.32%$396.79-3.16%

TSMC reported a record 77.4% increase in second-quarter profit, surpassing expectations from analysts. Revenue totaled $40.2 billion for the period. The company projected third-quarter revenue in the range of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion.

Nvidia posted quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion. The company’s data-center revenue climbed to $75.2 billion, a rise of 92% compared with a year earlier.

Nvidia advanced 8.3% for the week ending July 10. The indicated price for Friday was 4.0% below that closing level.

Risks: Harsher export restrictions, delays in product transitions, and reductions in customer spending could impact forecasts negatively. Nvidia notes that transitions may cause revenue to fluctuate more sharply. The company is still largely excluded from China’s data-center sector.

The key test next week is set for Wednesday when Alphabet reports results, drawing attention to AI capital expenditure. Any reduction in spending may impact the chip supply chain.

Mateusz Kaczmarek

Mateusz Kaczmarek is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global market developments. A graduate of the Poznań University of Economics and Business, he previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. His reporting focuses on technology companies, market trends and the forces shaping global investment markets. Follow Mateusz Kaczmarek on Google News.

AI PORTFOLIO

Top Stock Picks

Today’s highest-ranked model selections.

#1 STRONG BUY

CACI International

NYSE: CACI 95 / 100
#2 BUY

Constellation Energy

NASDAQ: CEG 93 / 100
#3 BUY

AerCap

NYSE: AER 91 / 100
#4 BUY ON PULLBACK

Motorola Solutions

NYSE: MSI 89 / 100
#5 ACCUMULATE

Walt Disney

NYSE: DIS 87 / 100
View full portfolio
Editorial model selection. Not personalised advice.
Nokia (HEL:NOKIA) Drops 21% Pre-Q2 with AI Spending Pressuring Stock Rally
Previous Story

Nokia (HEL:NOKIA) Drops 21% Pre-Q2 with AI Spending Pressuring Stock Rally

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) shares fall as $20 billion AI strategy intensifies dilution concerns
Next Story

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) shares fall as $20 billion AI strategy intensifies dilution concerns