NEW YORK, July 21, 2026, 07:09 EDT — U.S. cash market pre-open.
- The stock ended Monday at $65.45, rising 8.25%, as the S&P 500 fell 0.19%.
- USDC supply reached $73.1 billion as of July 16, marking a 5.1% decrease compared with the end of the first quarter.
- Preliminary estimate: With that balance, quarterly reserve income would be roughly $640 million based on the first-quarter return.
Circle Internet Group stock climbed 8.25% on Monday. However, the company’s most recent official USDC balance indicates a reduced income base in the short term.
On July 16, the amount of USDC in circulation was $73.1 billion, marking a decrease of $3.9 billion from the first-quarter end total of $77 billion.
In the first quarter, Circle reported $653 million in reserve income, accounting for 94% of its combined total revenue and reserve income.
The direction of usage shifted. According to Visa NYSE:V data, USDC accounted for close to 70% of adjusted stablecoin volume in the first half, while Tether’s USDT comprised about 25%. Adjusted total volume hit $1.79 trillion in June.
The division is significant. Elevated transfer volume may strengthen network effects even if revenue-generating reserves do not increase.
| Earnings driver | Q1 2026 reported | July 16 or sensitivity | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average USDC balance vs spot | $75.2 billion | $73.1 billion | -2.8% |
| USDC balance at quarter-end vs spot | $77.0 billion | $73.1 billion | -5.1% |
| Reserve return rate | 3.5% | 3.5% used | — |
| Gross reserve income for the quarter | $653 million actual | About $640 million preliminary | -2.0% |
| Gross income if return was 3.25% | $653 million actual | About $594 million preliminary | -9.0% |
The projections use the July 16 spot balance as a proxy for the quarterly average. The 3.25% scenario reflects a sensitivity test rather than an actual forecast. Timing, reserve composition, and distribution payouts are omitted from both sets of calculations.
Circle ended the session at $65.45, rising $4.99. Shares changed hands between $60.87 and $66.98, with a volume of 13.87 million. The overall market declined.
The most recent update on Circle’s pressroom was dated July 10. It was unclear what triggered the rebound on Monday.
The stock remained down overall. Shares dropped 8.6% from July 10 through last Friday. After Monday’s gain, it was trading 1.0% under the July 10 close.
The July 10 meeting came after Circle National Trust received full approval. CEO Jeremy Allaire described the OCC’s move as a “defining step.” Reserve management will be introduced later, as outlined in the approved business plan. Circle
Mizuho Securities analysts, headed by Dan Dolev, lowered their rating on Circle last week. The company, which operates under Mizuho Financial Group (TYO:8411), also reduced its price target for Circle to $50 from $85 and changed its rating on the stock to underperform.
Analysts stated that OpenUSD “could fundamentally alter CRCL’s business model.” The yield-sharing framework could enable distributors to push for a greater share of reserve income. CoinDesk
That pressure is already significant. Circle reported distribution, transaction and related expenses totaling $407 million in Q1. The margin for revenue after distribution costs stood at 41%.
Circle does not have any investor events planned. In the week ahead, attention moves to the next reserve update and short-maturity Treasury yields. These factors influence reserve earnings.
The upcoming test revolves around supply. USDC’s dominance in volume needs to translate into fresh increases in balances. Failing that, transaction growth may not boost earnings in the short term.
Risks: Increased USDC issuance or rising yields would heighten sensitivity. Declining rates, increased partner payouts, competition from OpenUSD, or fresh redemptions would diminish it.
