SÃO PAULO, July 22, 2026, 15:09 BRT
Banco Bradesco S.A. (BVMF:BBDC4; NYSE:BBD) climbed on Wednesday, yet its earnings target is becoming more challenging. To meet the lower end of 2026 guidance, average post-provision income over the next three quarters will need to exceed that of the first quarter.
Preferred shares were last at R$18.89, rising 1.8%. The New York ADR advanced 1.4% to $3.71. Trading in both main sessions remained active.
The Ibovespa climbed up to 2.35% by 14:59 BRT, indicating widespread buying across the market, which supported Bradesco’s gains.
Bradesco posted net interest income after provisions of R$10.384 billion for the first quarter. On an annualized basis, this amounts to R$41.54 billion. The management’s guidance for the full year begins at R$42 billion.
Achieving the floor demands R$10.54 billion each quarter from Q2 to Q4, which is 1.5% higher than in the first quarter. The midpoint calls for an 11.1% increase.
| 2026 NII post-provisions | Required average Q2–Q4 | Shift from Q1 |
|---|---|---|
| R$42 billion, lower bound | R$10.54 billion | +1.5% |
| R$45 billion, midpoint | R$11.54 billion | +11.1% |
| R$48 billion, upper bound | R$12.54 billion | +20.8% |
Based on Bradesco’s published first-quarter results and its outlook for 2026.
The lower threshold calls for only slight acceleration, while the upper range demands a distinct increase. Investors now face a tangible quarterly benchmark.
Recurring profit for the first quarter increased by 16.1% to R$6.81 billion. Return on average equity was 15.8%. However, provisions jumped 26.5%, outpacing the 16.4% growth in total NII.
Fee income increased by 6.2%, compared with full-year guidance of 3%–5%. Insurance income climbed 20.4%, exceeding the projected 6%–8% range. Expenses were up 7.8%, close to the upper end of the 8% forecast.
Chief Executive Marcelo Noronha stated, “We will continue to grow and maintain the pace.” He also said Bradesco sought increased guarantees throughout its loan portfolio.
This transition benefits payroll loans, auto financing, and secured working capital. The loan portfolio increased 8.4% from a year earlier. Delinquencies over 90 days rose to 4.2%.
Shares in Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (BVMF:ITUB4; NYSE:ITUB) gained 0.5% among private-bank ADRs. Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BVMF:SANB11; NYSE:BSBR) edged up 0.3%. Bradesco outperformed both.
Itaú maintains an edge in profitability. Using each bank’s adjusted metric, Itaú recorded a 24.8% ROE for the first quarter, while Bradesco came in at 15.8%, resulting in a nine-point difference.
XP’s initial estimates project a second-quarter profit of R$6.9 billion, up 15%. The brokerage forecasts return on equity at 15.8% and anticipates credit costs to remain steady. This would keep profitability at the same level as the first quarter.
Bradesco began its quiet period on Wednesday. The bank will release its results following the close of trading at B3 and the NYSE on August 5. Its webcast is scheduled for August 6.
NII after provisions is the main metric to watch. If Q2 comes in close to R$10.54 billion, it would satisfy the needed average for the remaining quarters. A higher figure would ease the pressure for the rest of the year.
Risks: Management highlighted issues with legacy rural-credit deterioration and cited a particular wholesale case. Provisions have increased more rapidly than NII. Any additional slippage would raise the required run-rate for the second half.
