NEW YORK, July 23, 2026, 07:04 EDT
- LSEG’s preliminary consensus forecasts indicate revenue of $14.42 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.21 per share.
- Data Center and AI revenue is forecast to reach $5.37 billion, representing about 92% of the anticipated annual sales growth for Intel.
- Shares of Intel closed Wednesday at $102.62, advancing 5.8% across the past five sessions and marking a 178.1% gain year-to-date.
Intel is required to show in its second-quarter results that AI server demand is yielding profits. U.S. cash markets remained closed at the time. The firm plans to announce earnings after Thursday’s closing bell.
Initial figures indicate robust performance, with growth largely concentrated. LSEG expects total revenue to climb by 12.1%, while the Data Center and AI segment is forecast to grow by 36.4%.
Using the precise growth rates, DCAI is responsible for close to 92% of the total rise. Its share of revenue rises to nearly 37%, compared to roughly 31% previously. Revenue outside DCAI grows by only about 1%.
The main issue is concentration, making guidance crucial. Investors are looking for server demand to appear in pricing, product mix, and margin results.
The margin headline needs updating. Consensus forecasts see an adjusted gross margin at 38.8%. Last year’s number, 29.7%, included charges that Intel stated reduced both reported and adjusted margins by about eight percentage points.
Including those charges gives a notional baseline of 37.7%. The true underlying increase is about 1.1 percentage points, well below the reported nine-point improvement.
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 preliminary consensus | Change or read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $12.9 billion | $14.42 billion | +12.1% |
| DCAI revenue | $3.9 billion | $5.37 billion | +36.4% |
| Revenue outside DCAI | About $9.0 billion | About $9.05 billion | About +1% |
| Adjusted gross margin | 29.7%; about 37.7% for illustrative base | 38.8% | Up roughly 1.1 percentage points versus the adjusted base |
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.10 | $0.21 | Returns to adjusted profit |
The numbers rely on Intel’s disclosed figures, unrounded growth projections from LSEG, and the charge effects provided by Intel.
Intel shares closed at $102.62 on Wednesday, down 2.7%. Despite this drop, the stock advanced 5.8% in the previous five sessions and has jumped 178.1% so far in 2026.
The increase has raised the bar. Bernstein analysts said conditions have improved, but pointed out that “fundamentals overall still remain somewhat on the challenging side.” Reuters
Repeatability remains in question. Last quarter, Intel gained from limited capacity, enabling sales of older and lower-end chips that were not expected to sell. This sales mix might not recur.
In April, CEO Lip-Bu Tan said AI inference demand was “significantly increasing the need” for Intel’s CPUs, wafers and advanced packaging. The financial results due Thursday will indicate how much this trend contributed to continued earnings. Intel Corporation
Expenditure on foundries remains a stabilizing factor. TD Cowen analysts highlighted that large-scale investment and the rollout of new manufacturing methods are still putting pressure on margins. A positive customer update may be as significant as a modest beat in sales.
The report comes as traders remain cautious. At 05:37 EDT, futures for the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.4%. Market participants renewed doubts over the returns on significant investments in AI.
Intel will hold its conference call at 14:00 PDT. The first thorough cash-market reaction is expected during trading on Friday. Key focus areas include third-quarter revenue, gross margin, server capacity, and updates on foundry operations.
Risks: A possible deceleration in the PC market, less favorable server mix, higher costs from ramping up foundry operations or renewed chip-sector selloffs could counteract a modest earnings beat. More optimistic forecasts for capacity and margins may help extend the rally.
