CBA (ASX:CBA) shares edge higher, but lower-priced competitors take lead in rate moves

CBA closed Friday at A$174.03, gaining 1.0% during the session. It rose 1.3% from the previous Friday’s A$171.78 close. The Motley Fool Australia The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3% across the same five sessions. Australian Securities Exchange CBA therefore outperformed the benchmark by about 1.6 percentage points. The stock remains 6.2% below its A$185.59 52-week high. Google

Australia’s June CPI is due Wednesday, July 29, at 11:30 a.m. AEST. May headline inflation was 4.0%, while trimmed mean inflation reached 3.6%. Australian Bureau of Statistics Both remain above the RBA’s 2% to 3% target range. The cash rate is 4.35%, with the next decision scheduled August 11. Reserve Bank of Australia June employment jumped 76,300, while unemployment held at 4.4%. Reuters A hotter reading would probably strengthen near-term rate-hike bets. For CBA, higher deposit margins could help, but borrower pressure may rise.

CBA will release its FY26 results on Wednesday, August 12. CommBank First-half cash profit was A$5.445 billion, rising 6% year on year. CommBank Third-quarter cash profit was about A$2.7 billion, rising 4% year on year. It was 1% below the first-half quarterly average. Together, those figures imply roughly A$8.1 billion over nine months. Reuters said Q3 profit missed analyst forecasts by about 2%. Reuters Investors will watch margins, provisions, expenses and the final dividend closely.

The first-half net interest margin was 2.04%, down four basis points. That decline applied against both the prior half and prior year. CommBank Third-quarter underlying margin was broadly stable after excluding non-recurring tailwinds. Net interest income rose 1%, but total operating income stayed flat. Expenses increased 1%, while operating performance rose 1.7% sequentially. Operating performance was also 5.6% above the prior comparative quarter. Margin resilience remains the central earnings test for August.

Over the year to March, Australian home loans grew A$41.2 billion. That represented 7.1% growth, broadly matching overall system expansion. Business lending rose A$21.6 billion, or 12.5%, at 1.2 times system. Household deposits increased A$38.3 billion, or 9.1%, at 1.1 times system. CBA also funded A$45 billion of new home loans during Q3. This volume growth supports revenue while lending margins remain competitive.

Loan impairment expense reached A$316 million in Q3, or 12 basis points. That doubled the first-half loan-loss rate of six basis points. CBA also added A$200 million to forward-looking collective provisions. Ninety-day home-loan arrears were 0.69%; personal-loan arrears reached 1.71%. Credit-card arrears stood at 0.68% in March. Corporate troublesome and non-performing exposures rose to A$6.5 billion. Actual losses remained low, so deterioration is visible but not yet severe.

Under the announced policy, negative gearing on established homes tightens from July 2027. It generally affects established properties bought after May 12, 2026. New builds retain access, while properties held before announcement are grandfathered. Treasury Investor loans formed 43% of CBA’s first-half mortgage funding. That exposure makes future investor demand an important volume risk. However, the timing and scale of any slowdown remain uncertain.

CBA’s CET1 ratio stood at 11.6% on March 31. That was 1.35 percentage points above APRA’s stated regulatory minimum. Deposit funding was 79%, while liquidity and stable-funding ratios were 133% and 116%. The fully franked interim dividend rose 4.4% to A$2.35 per share. Its 72.2% payout ratio sat inside CBA’s 70% to 80% target. CommBank The final dividend will be announced with results on August 12. The amount remains unknown until that announcement. CommBank

At Friday’s close, CBA traded at 28.17 times trailing earnings. NAB traded at 20.15 times, while Westpac traded at 18.31 times. Google CBA’s dividend yield was 2.84%, versus 4.21% and 4.15%. Its market value stood near A$291 billion at Friday’s close. Google The stock remains only 6.2% below its current 52-week high. Google The valuation premium is unmistakable. Whether CBA’s superior franchise deserves that gap remains disputed.