HELSINKI, July 26, 2026, 21:22 EEST — Markets have closed.
- Nokia shares ended Friday trading at €8.222, marking a weekly decline of 7.1%. The stock dropped 10.3% over Thursday and Friday.
- Comparable operating profit for the second quarter exceeded the consensus forecast by 13.6%. Orders for AI and cloud totaled €2.8 billion.
- Analysis shows that if third-quarter earnings are similar to those of Q2, Nokia requires between €931 million and €1.43 billion in Q4.
Nokia shares saw a marked downturn last week. The stock began trading on Thursday at €9.762 and finished Friday at €8.222.
The stock slid 10.3% over two sessions, despite reporting earnings that surpassed expectations. Comparable operating profit increased by 18% to €434 million, above the €382 million analysts had forecast.
The forecast included the more challenging figure. Nokia increased its profit outlook by €100 million, stating the adjustment was technical with no impact on business operations.
| Measure | Q2 or 2026 indication | Investor comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Comparable operating profit | €434 million | Up 18% year on year; 13.6% above analysts’ expectations |
| AI and cloud sales | €446 million | Grew 105%; accounts for 9.3% of overall revenues |
| AI and cloud orders | €2.8 billion | Equals 6.3 times the quarter’s AI and cloud revenue |
| Full-year operating-profit outlook | €2.1 billion-€2.6 billion | Guidance holds steady |
| Implied Q4 operating profit | €931 million-€1.43 billion | Roughly 2.1 to 3.3 times the Q2 figure |
Estimate calculated using €434 million as an approximation for management’s statement of “largely flat” third-quarter profit.
The technical update came after two business units were reclassified as discontinued operations. If not for this adjustment, Q2 sales would have been €66 million greater and comparable operating profit €13 million less.
The majority of full-year earnings are expected to come in the latter part of the year. Nokia reported comparable operating profit of €735 million in the first half, and forecasts that Q3 profit will be broadly in line with Q2.
Nokia, with €434 million in Q3, must generate between €931 million and €1.43 billion in Q4. The midpoint of its outlook calls for €1.18 billion, nearly 2.7 times the profit reported in Q2.
Orders provide a balance. AI and cloud orders reached €2.8 billion, representing 6.3 times the sales from the corresponding quarter.
Nokia anticipates around half of those orders will generate revenue within 12 months. This suggests approximately €1.4 billion, representing 78% of the annualized Q2 sales run-rate.
Chief Executive Justin Hotard said, “Demand remains strong, while supply continues to be the main industry constraint.” Extended lead times are prompting customers to place longer-term orders. Reuters
Network Infrastructure led results for the quarter, with sales up 12%. Operating profit increased by 42% and margin expanded to 8.1% compared to 6.4%.
Sales for Mobile Infrastructure rose by 6%, while profit held steady at €310 million. The margin slipped to 11.6%, down from 12.2%.
Key risks involve the supply of components, fluctuations in memory prices, and project execution. Nokia anticipates restructuring charges of €800 million and corresponding cash outflows of €700 million to €800 million for this year.
Ericsson STO:ERIC-B has highlighted concerns about rising memory costs. Hotard noted that Nokia will transfer any increased expenses it cannot absorb through design modifications.
Nokia stock trades ex-dividend on Monday, with a payout of €0.04—representing 0.49% of the previous session’s closing value. Any drop at the open could partly reflect this technical adjustment.
The record date for the dividend is set for July 28, with the payment planned on August 6.
No financial results have been scheduled for release this week. Nokia’s next official earnings report will be published on October 22.
For now, investors face two metrics to watch: roughly €1.4 billion in imminent order conversions and a significant fourth-quarter profit target.
