CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) Stock Ends Week Down 7.4% as HEMGENIX Progress Faces Scale Test

CSL last closed at A$114.22 on 24 July, slipping 1.3%. Shares fell 7.4% over the week, as the ASX 200 edged down 0.3%. The share price remains 58.6% under the 52-week high of A$275.79. No market-moving CSL disclosure came out in that period. The specific reason remains unclear.

CSL is scheduled to announce its FY26 results on 18 August at 10:00 a.m. AEST. The company’s current outlook is for revenue of US$15.2 billion and NPATA of US$3.1 billion, both at constant currency. NPATA excludes any restructuring and impairment costs. These forecasts indicate falls of around 2.6% in revenue and 6.1% in NPATA compared to FY25. CSL will also provide an update on impairments and declare the final dividend.

H1 NPATA came in at US$1.923 billion on a constant currency basis. This means CSL will require roughly US$1.177 billion in the second half. It is typical for the second half to be lower, as Seqirus performance is subject to seasonal factors. May guidance had already factored in approximately US$650 million in identified revenue headwinds. Further progress will rely primarily on Behring’s growth and meeting cost targets.

CSL anticipates around US$5 billion in extra pre-tax impairments for FY26 and FY27, on top of its H1 impairments. These charges are non-cash items. For the first half, restructuring and impairment costs reached US$2.06 billion pre-tax. The further review covers Vifor intangibles and underutilised fixed assets. Timing and allocation await audit and board sign-off. These impairments cut statutory profit and equity, but have no direct cash impact.

US immunoglobulin demand continues to climb at a mid-to-high single-digit pace. However, the process of channel inventory normalisation is expected to lower FY26 revenue by roughly US$300 million. Immunoglobulin revenue for H1 dropped 6% to US$3.046 billion, though this figure is 3% above the previous half. The data indicate underlying demand is stronger than sales figures alone suggest. Investors require evidence that the inventory adjustment is close to completion.

The EMA’s medicines committee has advised withdrawing Tavneos’s authorisation in Europe. The European Commission has not reached a decision yet. CSL forecasts Tavneos revenues to reach around US$145 million in FY26. On 23 July, Amgen provided the FDA with updated analyses. The difference in sustained remission at Week-52 was 9.8 percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from minus 0.3 to 19.9. The FDA has not yet announced a decision or timeline.

CSL has dropped its aim to finalise the Seqirus demerger within FY26. Management continues to favour a separation, but notes its timing will rely on vaccine market trends. As of May, CSL was set to complete the operational split by 1 July. Seqirus reported a 2% decrease in H1 revenue to US$1.646 billion. Sales of seasonal influenza products increased 1%, even as the US market was expected to shrink by 6%–8%. No updated demerger timetable has been disclosed.

CSL continues with Gordon Naylor serving as interim chief executive. The company stated in May that the international search is on track but has not indicated when an appointment will be made. CSL anticipates Naylor will take on a non-executive director role following the handover. There has been no further announcement on a permanent CEO.

CSL completed its US$750 million buyback on 5 May, repurchasing 6.407 million shares at a total cost of A$1.065 billion. The average price per share stood at approximately A$166.16. The latest closing price is 31.3% under that average. The repurchased shares represented roughly 1.3% of the original share count. H1 leverage hit the 2.0 times upper end of management’s target. The interim dividend stayed at US$1.30 per share.

A survey of 16 analysts puts the average price target at A$138.93, around 21.6% higher than the previous confirmed close. Seven analysts recommend buying CSL, nine advise holding, and none suggest selling. Price targets span from A$103.73 to A$198.71. Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and lowered its target to A$163 on 22 July. Broker targets show notable variation and could trail fresh updates.