NEW YORK, July 27, 2026, 13:05 EDT ASML NASDAQ:ASML shares fell 6% after a report on China’s DUV capabilities challenged the company’s lithography market position.
- ASML’s U.S. shares were at $1,645.65, falling 6.3% with Nasdaq trading still underway.
- An article stated that China is expected to produce five immersion DUV machines this year and around 20 by 2027.
- Initial estimates indicate the equity value declined by nearly $44 billion, exceeding implied 2026 China revenue by more than four times.
Shares of ASML Holding N.V. listed in the United States dropped 6.3% on Monday after news that China has started producing its own immersion deep-ultraviolet lithography machines.
Production volumes are still low, according to the report. A state-backed manufacturer, who was not identified, anticipates delivering around five machines this year and approximately 20 in 2027. ASML offered no comment.
The report states that the systems continue to trail ASML in both reliability and performance. Additional testing is necessary prior to initiating large-scale production.
An initial comparison by units highlights the disparity in scale. Five units represent 3.8% of ASML’s targeted 2026 immersion-DUV capacity, which is about 130 systems. In 2027, twenty units would correspond to 11.8% of its estimated capacity of approximately 169 systems.
The stock movement signals concerns that extend past this year’s equipment shipments. Investors appear to be factoring in the risk of a sustained breach in ASML’s competitive barrier in China.
Early estimates indicate equity values dropped by almost $44 billion on Monday. ASML forecasts its 2026 revenue to reach between $49 billion and $51 billion, projecting that roughly 20% will come from China. This suggests annual sales to China approaching $10 billion.
The amount wiped out was roughly 4.4 times the projected revenue. This is not a prediction of lost profits. It indicates that investors are factoring in lower future pricing, service revenues and market share.
As of 12:49 p.m. EDT, delayed U.S. quotes indicated widespread declines among chip-equipment shares.
| Security | Price | Monday move |
|---|---|---|
| ASML NASDAQ:ASML | $1,645.65 | fell 6.3% |
| Applied Materials Inc. NASDAQ:AMAT | $507.91 | dropped 5.3% |
| Lam Research Corp. NASDAQ:LRCX | $286.42 | declined 6.2% |
| KLA Corp. NASDAQ:KLAC | $200.57 | slipped 4.7% |
| iShares Semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SOXX | $510.15 | was down 3.2% |
The three equipment peers dropped by an average of 5.4%. ASML lagged the group, falling roughly one percentage point more. The numbers suggest both broad sector pressure and heightened worries surrounding ASML’s business.
The decline in shares followed robust quarterly results released 12 days earlier. ASML posted second-quarter revenue of €9.33 billion, with a gross margin of 54% and net income totaling €2.92 billion. The company sold 86 new lithography systems, up from 67 sold in the previous quarter.
Management lifted its full-year sales forecast to between €43 billion and €45 billion. The company now anticipates a gross margin of 54% to 56%. Sales for the third quarter are projected at €11 billion to €12 billion.
Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet stated that first-half order intake was “extremely strong.” ASML intends to raise low-NA EUV and immersion-DUV capacity by 30% in 2027. ASML
Michael Roeg, an analyst at Degroof Petercam, described the July performance as “blow-out results across the board.” The decline on Monday indicates that China-related risks remain capable of overshadowing short-term execution. Reuters
The Chinese devices being reported focus on immersion DUV rather than extreme ultraviolet technology. ASML is still the sole commercial source for EUV machines. By the close of the second quarter, nearly all of the company’s increased EUV production capacity through 2027 had already been reserved.
China continues to represent a significant DUV market. ASML is already barred by export regulations from selling EUV machines and its advanced DUV models in the country. The emergence of a dependable homegrown substitute could put further strain on the legal equipment and service segments that remain.
Risks: Chinese equipment could fall short in reliability, yield, or output tests. On the other hand, quicker technology progress or stricter service regulations might impact ASML’s China revenue ahead of present expectations.
The next indication will come from operations. Investors are set to monitor tool uptime, how customers respond, and the proportion of ASML’s sales to China. Currently, the market is factoring in a much bigger question about competitive barriers than simply five machines.
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