Ambev Shares Close Week Up on Robust Brazil Beer Contribution
2 August 2026

Ambev Shares Close Week Up on Robust Brazil Beer Contribution

SAO PAULO, August 2, 2026, 16:00 BRT

  • Ambev S.A. (NYSE:ABEV; BVMF:ABEV3) ADRs ended trading on Friday at $3.11, marking a 1.6% increase over the week.
  • Brazil accounted for 60.9% of normalized EBITDA in the second quarter, an increase of 5.6 percentage points.
  • Organic EBITDA increased by 8.9%, versus a reported growth rate of 3.6%.

Ambev increased the proportion of its earnings generated in Brazil in the second quarter. Brazil accounted for 60.9% of total EBITDA, up from 55.3% in the same period last year.

Stock chart for BVMF:ABEV3

The move is the most direct message to investors. Brazil Beer posted a 12.8% increase in EBITDA, as international divisions encountered softer volumes and negative currency effects.

The ADR posted a mild response, rising 0.65% on Thursday before slipping 0.32% on Friday. Markets in both the U.S. and Brazil were shut on Sunday.

SessionADR closeDaily moveVolume
July 24$3.060-0.97%16.44 million
July 30$3.120+0.65%59.90 million
July 31$3.110-0.32%57.17 million

Closing prices indicate a 1.6% rise from July 24 to July 31.

Underlying operations performed better than the reported figures in reais suggest. Revenue growth was reduced by 5.8 points due to currency and scope impacts, while EBITDA growth was lowered by 5.3 points.

Q2 year-on-year metricReported growthOrganic growthOrganic minus reported
Volume+0.4%+1.4%1.0 point
Net revenue+0.3%+6.1%5.8 points
Gross profit+4.0%+10.5%6.5 points
Normalized EBITDA+3.6%+8.9%5.3 points

Ambev posted revenue of R$20.15 billion and normalized EBITDA totaling R$6.38 billion.

The composition of growth shifted compared to the first quarter, with volumes increasing more quickly, pricing gains moderating, and margin expansion becoming broader.

Organic metricQ1 2026Q2 2026
Total volume up+0.1%+1.4%
Net revenue up+8.1%+6.1%
Normalized EBITDA up+10.1%+8.9%
EBITDA margin difference+60 basis points+80 basis points
Normalized EPS up+0.5%+24.2%

Financial results for the first and second quarters are sourced from Ambev’s filings with regulators.

Brazil Beer drove overall growth, with volume increasing by 5.0% and premium brands seeing mid-twenties percentage gains in volume. In contrast, Brazil NAB volumes declined 4.4%. However, EBITDA rose 13.8%.

Business unitVolume growthRevenue growthEBITDA growthMargin changeGroup EBITDA share
Brazil Beerup 5.0%increased 8.9%rose 12.8%improved 110 bps51.4%
Brazil NABdown 4.4%up 1.4%jumped 13.8%rose 320 bps9.6%
Central America and Caribbeangrew 5.4%climbed 7.1%gained 4.9%fell 90 bps15.9%
Latin America Southdropped 2.9%advanced 4.4%added 2.6%decreased 30 bps9.4%
Canadadeclined 1.8%rose 2.1%increased 2.9%up 30 bps13.7%

The numbers are based on organic growth and adjusted EBITDA.

Cash conversion improved. Operating cash flow climbed 54.5% to R$4.71 billion. Capital expenditures declined 19.1% to R$880 million.

R$ billionQ2 2025Q2 2026Change
Cash flow from operations3.0504.711+54.5%
Capital spending1.0880.880-19.1%
Operating cash flow after capex1.9623.832+95.3%

The last row represents a derived metric. This is not Ambev’s definition of free cash flow.

Management deployed the cash assertively, with approximately 95% of the buyback finished by the date of the filing. In addition, approval was given for a new R$1.1 billion interest-on-capital payout.

Chief Executive Carlos Lisboa stated that performance led to “another quarter of beer volume growth.” Premium volumes for the group climbed by a percentage in the high teens.

However, the quarter fell short of the market’s elevated expectations. Analysts had predicted Brazil Beer volume to rise by almost 7%, while the actual increase was 5%. One forecast came in 1.6 percentage points above the result.

Parent company Anheuser-Busch InBev (EBR:ABI) reported growth driven by the Americas. The group saw Q2 volumes increase by 0.9%, with revenue up 5.6% and EBITDA climbing 5.8%. These consolidated results account for Ambev.

Ambev maintained its forecast for Brazil Beer cash-cost growth at 4.5%-7.5% per hectoliter. This provides limited flexibility should currency or commodity conditions deteriorate.

Risks: A portfolio concentrated in Brazil heightens sensitivity to domestic weather, demand, and the real. Reported growth may remain skewed by Bolivia’s currency devaluation and inflation accounting in Argentina.

Ambev does not have any corporate events planned between August 3-7. Its upcoming earnings announcement is set for October 29. Market focus next week will be on whether shares hold their post-results advance in the face of persistent FX headwinds.

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Further analysis

Is Ambev’s earnings rebound now sustained?
Normalized EBITDA for Q2 climbed 8.9%, with the margin at 31.6%. Organic revenue increased by 6.1%, and total volume was up 1.4%. Brazil Beer drove gains, seeing a 5.0% increase in volume and a 12.8% rise in EBITDA. The rebound remained uneven. Volumes for Brazil NAB, LAS, and Canada declined by 4.4%, 2.9%, and 1.8%, respectively.
Is there sufficient potential for gains in ABEV shares at $3.11?
ABEV ended the session at $3.11 on July 31. Current average analyst targets are in the range of $3.27 to $3.32, representing a 5%-7% upside. Ambev holds 11 Neutral, four Buy, and three Sell recommendations. Barron’s consensus forecasts earnings per share at $0.20 for 2026 and $0.21 for 2027, equating to 15.6 times and 14.8 times forward earnings, respectively. The price targets are spread from $2.55 to $4.00. Barron's
What factors might push estimates beyond consensus?
The main driver is the portfolio mix. Premium volume climbed in the high teens, mid-sixties growth was seen in balanced selections, and no-alcohol beer advanced in the low twenties. BEES Marketplace GMV jumped 58%, while Zé Delivery GMV was up 16%. According to management, there were also market share increases for beer in Brazil across a wide base. GMV does not represent revenue. The key focus remains on profit conversion. The upcoming test is on October 29.
Is there potential for margins to continue widening in the second half?
Q2 normalized EBITDA margin increased by 80 basis points, reaching 31.6%. Growth in Brazil Beer cash COGS per hectoliter eased to 4.5%. However, growth for the first half was still 9.7%. The full-year outlook remains at 4.5%-7.5%, mainly due to aluminum and mix. This projection is based on current commodity prices and exchange rates. Cash SG&A climbed 10.7% following higher World Cup and distribution expenses. Additional cost reductions remain critical.
Are capital returns likely to continue underpinning the share price?
Ambev reported holding R$15.4 billion in net cash as of June 30. Operating cash flow for Q2 increased by 54.5% to R$4.71 billion. The company returned approximately R$5.9 billion through July 30. Out of 208 million authorized shares, 198.5 million have been repurchased, representing 95% of the program and about 1.3% of shares outstanding. The board has also set R$1.9 billion in gross IOC and approved an additional R$1.1 billion. The current buyback now provides minimal further support.
What are the risks that should receive greater focus?
Currency movements and scope changes weighed on Q2 growth. Organic revenue was up 6.1%, while reported revenue edged higher by 0.3%. Organic EBITDA climbed 8.9%, and reported EBITDA gained 3.6%. Ambev reported potential tax contingencies totaling R$113.2 billion, including R$32.8 billion relating to IOC deductions and R$23.6 billion associated with foreign tax credits. No provision has been made. Management views the risk of loss as possible rather than probable. The final result is still unclear.

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the founder and CEO of TS2 Space, a satellite communications company serving customers around the world. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he has more than two decades of experience in telecommunications, satellite services and technology ventures. He writes about satellite communications, space technology, artificial intelligence and the stock market, with a particular focus on technology companies, semiconductors, emerging industries and the trends shaping global innovation. Follow Marcin Frąckiewicz on Google News, Facebook. or Linkedin.

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