TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
Here are five U.S.-listed stocks to watch on Monday, August 10, based on Friday’s closing data and the latest weekend results. The model favors companies with upward earnings revisions, strong cash flow, attractive valuations, and solid entry points. Stocks with double-digit moves on Friday are penalized.
Constructive • buy pullbacks, not Friday’s gaps
7,757.64 • +0.62%
26,690.62 • +1.30%
54,036.93 • +0.28%
4.64%
$83.55 • +1.30%
-23,000 • unemployment 4.1%
The S&P 500 closed at a record high despite a drop in payrolls. The disappointing jobs report bolsters expectations for a cautious Fed on rates but also clouds the outlook for growth. Investors will be watching consumer inflation data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. Stocks that surged over 10% Friday are still excluded from the main allocation until entry points strengthen.
24% weight
AerCap
NYSE: AER
95 / 100
Friday’s 2.3% decline brought AerCap near 9 times its updated earnings outlook. The forecast does not factor in additional aircraft sale gains in the second half, suggesting a conservative approach to potential upside. Limited aircraft supply continues to bolster lease rates, asset values, and share buybacks priced below the company’s intrinsic value estimate.
Shares closed at $151.72, down 2.26%. The stock holds a consensus Overweight rating, with an average target price of $179.30 and estimates ranging from $165 to $190, implying an 18.2% upside.
The company reported revenue and other income of $2.17 billion, up 15%. Adjusted net income came in at $811 million, with adjusted earnings per share of $5.14. Operating cash flow totaled $1.5 billion.
The company projects adjusted EPS of approximately $16.80 for 2026, reflecting a 9.0× earnings multiple. Book value stands at $119.21 per share, with an adjusted debt-to-equity ratio of 2.05×.
Initiate positions between $149 and $153, add between $143 and $147, and avoid buying above $158.
Lease yields, airline credit quality, aircraft sale margins, delivery delays, and ongoing share buybacks at prices below intrinsic value.
weaken returns. Gains on asset sales also vary by quarter.
22% weight
Constellation Energy
NASDAQ: CEG
94 / 100
Constellation has increased its annual profit forecast and secured 920 MW in long-term power contracts, enhancing earnings visibility as data center demand strains the supply of reliable electricity. After Friday’s 3.4% gain, a gradual entry may be wiser than buying in full at the open.
Shares closed at $269.89, up 3.40%. Analysts rate the stock a Buy on average, with a consensus price target of $351.55. Target estimates range from $290 to $441, implying a potential gain of 30.3%.
Adjusted operating EPS rose to $2.55 from $1.91 a year ago, with revenue at $7.50 billion. The company raised its 2026 guidance to $11.50–$12.50 and completed the Brazos Valley sale for $860 million.
Trading at 22.5 times the midpoint of guidance, the company has secured 920 MW in new power agreements lasting 15 to 20 years. Ongoing efforts to restart the Crane facility and integrate Calpine offer further potential to boost earnings.
Initial buy range is $264–$272; consider adding at $250–$258; avoid buying above $279.
Key developments include crane restart targets, progress on Calpine integration, contract margin performance, and nuclear fleet availability during the autumn outage period.
integration costs and regulatory intervention can offset the higher earnings range.
20% weight
Cheniere Energy
NYSE: LNG
92 / 100
Cheniere shares fell 3.7% on Friday, bringing the stock back into the model’s initial buy zone after management raised EBITDA and distributable cash flow guidance. Production is increasing at Corpus Christi, long-term contracts continue to support cash flow, and share buybacks are reducing the share count. However, geopolitical risk keeps the position weighted below AerCap.
Closed at $256.14, down 3.66%. Consensus rating is Buy, with an average price target of $307.29 and estimates ranging from $255 to $340, implying a potential upside of 20.0%.
Revenue reached $5.73 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up 27% to $1.80 billion. Distributable cash flow totaled $1.17 billion. The company delivered 184 cargoes, a 19% increase.
For 2026, the company forecasts EBITDA between $7.90 billion and $8.40 billion, and distributable cash flow in the range of $5.30 billion to $5.80 billion. Projected output stands at 53 to 54 million tonnes per annum. The market capitalization is 9.7 times the DCF midpoint.
Buy the first tranche at $252–$258, add more at $242–$248, but avoid buying above $264.
Corpus Christi Train 7 is set for its first LNG production, with completion expected this autumn. The company is focusing on cargo routing, maintaining 2027 contract margins, and ongoing share repurchases.
changes can produce large earnings swings. Expansion spending remains substantial.
18% weight
Walt Disney
NYSE: DIS
90 / 100
Disney’s rebound now spans its parks, streaming business, merchandise, and free cash flow. Shares are trading at about 14 times projected fiscal 2027 earnings, with the average analyst target still over 20% above Friday’s close. A planned share buyback of at least $9 billion backs the outlook, though sports profit continues to lag.
Shares closed at $104.91, up 0.22%. Analysts rate the stock a consensus Buy, with an average price target of $127.46. Targets range from $88 to $144, suggesting an implied upside of 21.5%.
Revenue rose 7% to $25.25 billion, with adjusted EPS up 28% to $2.06. Segment operating income climbed 21% to $5.56 billion, while free cash flow surged 63% to $3.07 billion.
Analysts expect FY2026 EPS of $6.86 and FY2027 EPS of $7.48, putting the stock at 15.3 times FY2026 earnings and 14.0 times FY2027. Fourth-quarter segment operating income is projected to be around $4.9 billion.
Initial buy range: $102–$106. Add between $97 and $100. Avoid purchases above $109.
Key topics include streaming profitability, domestic park visitor numbers, expenses for sports broadcasting rights, fourth-quarter performance, and the speed of share buybacks.
demand or softer international attendance could dilute gains elsewhere.
16% weight
AIG
NYSE: AIG
88 / 100
Friday’s drop brought AIG shares to roughly book value and below 10 times projected 2026 earnings. Premiums increased, underwriting stayed disciplined, and capital returns were strong. The reduced position accounts for catastrophe risks and weaker international commercial pricing.
Shares closed at $78.78, down 1.49%. Analysts rate the stock Overweight, with an average price target of $88.80 and estimates ranging from $80 to $102. This implies a potential upside of 12.7%.
General Insurance reported underwriting income of $686 million, up 10%. Net premiums written rose 9% to $7.52 billion. Adjusted EPS increased 10% to $2.00, while the combined ratio improved to 89.0%.
Consensus 2026 EPS stands at $8.02, valuing shares at 9.8 times forward earnings, with book value per share at $77.39. The company returned $904 million to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.
Initiate a first position at $77–$80, add more at $73–$75, but avoid buying above $82.
Key factors include renewal pricing, reserve development, catastrophe risk, international commercial margins, and the speed of share buybacks.
underwriting gains. International commercial pricing is becoming less supportive.
| Ticker | Price | Forecast | Valuation | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AER | $151.72 | 2026 guide $16.80 | 9.0× guide EPS | $179.30 | +18.2% | $149–$153 |
| CEG | $269.89 | 2026 guide midpoint $12.00 | 22.5× guide EPS | $351.55 | +30.3% | $264–$272 |
| LNG | $256.14 | 2026 DCF midpoint $5.55bn | 9.7× market cap / DCF | $307.29 | +20.0% | $252–$258 |
| DIS | $104.91 | FY2027 consensus $7.48 | 14.0× forward EPS | $127.46 | +21.5% | $102–$106 |
| AIG | $78.78 | 2026 consensus $8.02 | 9.8× forward EPS | $88.80 | +12.7% | $77–$80 |
Constellation and Cheniere price targets could be updated following the latest reports. Cheniere’s GAAP results are affected by derivative mark-to-market impacts, so distributable cash flow is used for comparison. Price targets represent projections, not guaranteed returns.
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
Earnings and estimate updates
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
Valuation relative to projections
Quality of entry following the move
Short-term event risk
Use limit orders; do not convert Friday’s record close into a market-order chase.
Establish each position in three parts. Hold off for the first 30–60 minutes after an opening gap above 3%. Consumer inflation data is due Wednesday, with producer prices following on Thursday. Postpone the initial tranche if the 10-year yield tops 4.75% or the S&P 500 opens more than 1% lower.
NYSE: BRK.B
WAIT FOR PRICE DISCOVERY
Shares closed at $521.80 on Friday, just ahead of the weekend report. Operating profit climbed 16% to $12.98 billion, while revenue grew 10% to $101.8 billion. Berkshire bought back $4.5 billion in stock during the quarter. GEICO’s underwriting profit dropped 45%. The market’s response at Monday’s open remains to be seen.
NASDAQ: TEAM
RESULT STRONG, 35% GAP TOO LARGE
Revenue climbed 28% to $1.77 billion, with cloud revenue up 31% and remaining performance obligations jumping 44%. Shares closed Friday at $149.07, capping a 35.35% rise. Operating performance strengthened, but valuations remain high.
NASDAQ: HALO
GUIDANCE RAISED, TARGETS LAG PRICE
Revenue rose 48% to $481 million, while royalty income climbed 50% to $308 million. Management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $1.84 billion–$1.91 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $8.65–$9.00. Shares jumped 20.15% on Friday to $103.12, surpassing analysts’ broad target range ahead of results.
NASDAQ: ABNB
GOOD QUARTER, 17% GAP
Revenue climbed 17% to $3.6 billion, with gross booking value up 16% to $27.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA rising 21% to $1.3 billion. Management has upgraded its full-year guidance. After Friday’s 17.42% surge to $178.07, a pullback may be needed before considering entry.
6.7 / 10
Stocks remain moderately elevated, with record index levels and a softer payroll report fueling risk appetite. However, equities could quickly reprice on inflation concerns, a 4.64% Treasury yield, and Brent crude trading above $83. AerCap and AIG are reducing interest rate exposure, while Constellation and Cheniere are increasing positions tied to power markets and geopolitical trends.
The recent drop in payrolls could prompt the Fed to hold rates steady, though it may also point to softer demand. Stocks open the week at record highs after a series of sharp post-earnings moves. Investors are watching Wednesday’s consumer inflation figures and Thursday’s producer price data for direction on yields and valuations. Ongoing oil market and shipping disruptions continue to pose inflationary threats.