TAIPEI, August 10, 2026, 19:00 CST
- Revenue for July was NT$467.58 billion, marking a 44.7% increase compared to the same period last year.
- Initial estimate: To achieve guidance, August and September combined require an average between NT$479.81 billion and NT$499.01 billion.
- Taipei stocks finished up 0.42%. The U.S. ADR rose 0.07% ahead of Monday’s market open.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM; TPE:2330) reported revenue of NT$467.58 billion for July. The figure marks a 44.7% increase year-on-year and a 5.6% rise compared to June, continuing a surge in production driven by AI demand.
The key investor milestone is now scheduled for August and September. TSMC forecasts third-quarter revenue between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion, using an exchange rate of NT$32 to the U.S. dollar.
Initial calculations indicate the next two months will need to average between NT$479.81 billion and NT$499.01 billion. This range is 2.6% to 6.7% higher than July’s figure. In other words, the record set in July is insufficient on its own.
Latest revenue movement
| Period | Revenue, NT$ billion | Month-on-month change | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 416.98 | 1.5% | 30.1% |
| June 2026 | 442.68 | 6.2% | 67.9% |
| July 2026 | 467.58 | 5.6% | 44.7% |
| January–July 2026 | 2,872.06 | — | 37.0% |
Source: TSMC. Sequential variations are measured. TSMC refers to its 2026 monthly data as unaudited.
The rise in July came after a tougher year-on-year comparison than June. While June posted a 67.9% increase over NT$263.71 billion in June 2025, July faced a higher base of NT$323.17 billion. As a result, absolute sales numbers offer a clearer view of demand.
Initial revenue bridge for the third quarter
| Scenario | Q3 guidance, US$ billion | Indicated Q3 revenue, NT$ billion | Needed August–September monthly average, NT$ billion | Increase over July | Estimated Aug.–Sept. year-on-year increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low end | 44.6 | 1,427.20 | 479.81 | 2.6% | 43.9% |
| Midpoint | 45.2 | 1,446.40 | 489.41 | 4.7% | 46.8% |
| High end | 45.8 | 1,465.60 | 499.01 | 6.7% | 49.7% |
Data sourced from TSMC guidance and monthly reports. Preliminary calculations are based on the company’s NT$32-per-dollar exchange rate estimate. Realized rates and shipping dates may vary.
During the July earnings call, Chief Executive C.C. Wei said AI growth was “stronger and stronger and stronger.” Executives also noted encouraging demand indicators from both clients and their end customers.
The breakdown of revenue explains the trend. High-performance computing accounted for 66% of revenue in the second quarter, rising 20% from the previous quarter. Chips produced on 7-nanometer nodes or more advanced technology made up 77% of wafer revenue. The recently introduced 2-nanometer node delivered 3%.
The focus has boosted earnings. Net profit for the second quarter surged 77% to NT$706.6 billion, surpassing the market forecast of NT$632.6 billion. TSMC counts Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA and Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL among its customers.
Most analysts continue to hold a positive outlook. FactSet Research Systems Inc. NYSE:FDS reports that out of 45 recommendations, 44 are either Buy or Overweight. Still, one fewer analyst rated it a Buy in the last month.
Analyst price targets and recommendations
| Measure | Current | One month earlier | Investor read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | 37 | 38 | 82.2% of ratings |
| Overweight | 7 | 7 | 15.6% of ratings |
| Hold | 1 | 1 | 2.2% of ratings |
| Underweight | 0 | 0 | None |
| Sell | 0 | 0 | None |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | No change |
| Median target | $532.50 | — | 26.8% higher than Friday’s closing price |
| Low-to-high targets | $430–$650 | — | Potential gain between 2.4% and 54.7% |
According to FactSet figures published by The Wall Street Journal. Price targets are based on TSMC’s closing price of $420.04 on August 7.
The target range highlights the valuation gap. The lowest projection provides limited downside cover following the latest rally, while the median suggests the potential for further significant gains.
Taiwan’s market had closed before the dateline. Shares in TSMC ended Monday at NT$2,380, a gain of 0.42%. The company’s New York ADR rose 0.07% to $420.34 ahead of the U.S. open.
The ADR rose 3.43% across the last five U.S. trading sessions, setting a higher threshold for new gains following the sales announcement.
The next supply-chain update comes on Wednesday. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (TPE:2317), also called Foxconn, is set to release its second-quarter earnings on August 12. The company’s revenue for July climbed 54.2% to an all-time high of NT$946.5 billion. Foxconn anticipates continued growth in AI rack shipments throughout this quarter.
Risks: TSMC’s exchange-rate forecast underpins the revenue bridge. Monthly shipment timing may fall into different reporting periods. Margin pressure may come from N2 ramp-up expenses, overseas factory dilution, and softer AI demand.
TSMC is due to release its August sales on September 10. Sales coming in under NT$479.81 billion would not confirm a quarterly shortfall. However, it would leave a greater share of third-quarter guidance resting on September results.
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