TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
Here are five U.S.-listed stocks for Monday, August 10, featuring the latest morning prices, recent company earnings, and current analyst forecasts. The model highlights estimate revisions, cash conversion, and valuation, while price and event risk weigh on each entry’s score.
Selective • buy evidence, not gaps
7,765.23 • +0.10%
26,699.40 • +0.03%
53,956.68 • -0.15%
4.69%
$85.90 • +2.81%
CPI • Wed 08:30 ET
Stocks bounced back from an early drop, though the market remains mixed. Energy shares are out front as oil prices climb, but the Dow and other rate-sensitive sectors are trailing. The 10-year Treasury yield holds around 4.69%, putting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. Earnings reports stay solid: 85.1% of the 436 S&P 500 companies that have released results so far have beaten profit forecasts. Key inflation data is on deck, with CPI due Wednesday, PPI Thursday, and retail sales Friday.
24% weight
Taiwan Semiconductor
NYSE: TSM
96 / 100
TSMC’s July sales update provides the latest insight into its operations. Revenue climbed 44.7% year over year, following a quarter with a 67.7% gross margin. While the stock is not inexpensive, forecasts continue to improve and Monday’s advance leaves room for a gradual entry.
Shares traded at $421.20 intraday, up 0.28%. The stock holds a Strong Buy consensus, with an average price target of $540.20 and estimates ranging from $430 to $700, implying a potential upside of 28.3%.
July revenue reached NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7%. For January through July, revenue totaled NT$2.872 trillion, an increase of 37.0%. Second-quarter revenue was $40.20 billion, with a gross margin of 67.7%.
Third-quarter revenue is projected between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion, with gross margins expected in the 65% to 67% range. The company anticipates U.S. dollar revenue growth just above 40% in 2026 and is trading at 19.1 times forward earnings.
Initial tranche: $414–$424; consider adding at $398–$405; avoid buying above $432.
August revenue, third-quarter margin performance, advanced packaging capacity, and a shift in product mix toward 2-nanometre production.
concentration and the cost of overseas fabs could interrupt the current
earnings-revision cycle.
22% weight
AerCap
NYSE: AER
95 / 100
AerCap stands out with a notable valuation cushion. Management has upped its guidance, analysts have made significant upward revisions to 2026 estimates, and share buybacks are ongoing at prices below the average target. While the current discount factors in leverage and the cyclical nature of the business, limited aircraft supply continues to underpin lease rates and asset values.
Shares traded at $150.81 intraday, down 0.60%. The consensus rating is Overweight, with an average price target of $179.30 and a target range of $165 to $190, implying an 18.9% potential upside.
Total revenue and other income reached $2.167 billion, up 15%. Adjusted net income was $811 million, with adjusted EPS at $5.14. Operating cash flow came in at $1.5 billion.
The 2026 adjusted EPS guidance stands at around $16.80, with projected earnings at 9.0 times and a price-to-book ratio of 1.27. Consensus estimates for 2026 EPS have climbed 8.4% over the past month to $18.72.
Initiate positions at $148–$152, consider adding at $142–$146, but avoid buying above $156
Lease yields, airline credit quality, aircraft sale margins, and ongoing share buybacks as long as the stock trades below its estimated intrinsic value.
aircraft values can reduce returns. Gains on asset sales also vary by quarter.
20% weight
Constellation Energy
NASDAQ: CEG
93 / 100
Constellation’s outlook relies on contracted power, not short-term oil fluctuations. The company boosted EPS guidance, secured 920 MW in long-term deals, and cleared restart milestones at Crane. Its valuation remains yield-sensitive, so the model limits exposure and buys only within a set range.
Shares traded at $274.00 intraday, up 1.52%. The stock holds a consensus Buy rating, with an average price target of $349.96 and projections ranging from $290 to $441, implying a potential upside of 27.7%.
Adjusted operating EPS for Q2 came in at $2.55, up from $1.91. The company secured 920 MW of new power purchase agreements with contract lengths ranging from 15 to 20 years. It also reached a deal to sell Brazos Valley for $860 million.
The company projects 2026 adjusted earnings per share between $11.50 and $12.50, implying a 22.8 times multiple at the midpoint. Wall Street estimates 2027 EPS at $13.27, with third-quarter consensus at $3.69.
Buy the first tranche between $266 and $274, add positions at $252 to $260, and avoid buying above $280.
Calpine integration, nuclear outage performance, Crane’s scheduled 2027 restart, and the conversion of long-term power contracts into cash flow.
regulatory delays can move earnings. Higher bond yields also compress the
valuation of long-duration contracted cash flows.
18% weight
Walt Disney
NYSE: DIS
90 / 100
Disney’s latest quarter delivered stronger operating leverage and cash flow, outpacing revenue growth. Segment income climbed faster than sales, free cash flow surged, and share buybacks accelerated. Monday’s drop enhances the entry point, though parks and sports rights remain cyclical.
Shares traded at $102.99 intraday, down 1.83%. Analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy, with an average price target of $127.72 and estimates ranging from $88 to $160, suggesting a potential upside of 24.0%.
Revenue rose 7% to $25.248 billion. Segment operating income climbed 21% to $5.555 billion. Adjusted EPS increased 28% to $2.06, while free cash flow surged 63% to $3.072 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share are projected to grow by around 12% in fiscal 2026, excluding the impact of the extra week. For fiscal 2027, double-digit adjusted EPS growth is expected. Shares are trading at 13.8 times fiscal 2027 consensus EPS. The company plans at least $9 billion in share buybacks for fiscal 2026.
Initial tranche: $101–$105. Consider adding between $96 and $99, but avoid chasing above $109.
Key topics include fourth-quarter park margins, progress in streaming profitability, sports rights expenses, and whether the expanded buyback program will keep reducing the share count.
Rising sports-rights costs and continued decline in linear television may
offset gains in streaming and theatrical releases.
16% weight
American International Group
NYSE: AIG
87 / 100
AIG offers stability to a portfolio focused on growth. Premiums and underwriting income increased, the combined ratio improved, and the stock is trading near its adjusted book value. However, with forecasts holding steady instead of picking up, its weighting remains below the other four picks.
Shares traded at $78.12 intraday, down 0.84%. Analysts maintain an Overweight consensus, with an average price target of $88.60 and a target range of $80 to $101, implying a potential 13.4% upside.
Net premiums written rose 9% to $7.5 billion. Underwriting income increased 10% to $686 million, while the combined ratio held at 89.0%. Adjusted earnings per share climbed 10% to $2.00.
Consensus earnings per share for 2026 are projected at $8.02, valuing the stock at 9.7 times forward earnings. For 2027, consensus EPS rises to $8.85. The shares trade at 0.98 times the adjusted book value of $79.98 per share.
Initial tranche at $76.50–$79; consider adding at $72.50–$74.50; avoid buying above $82.
Key factors include commercial pricing trends, catastrophe losses, reserve development, investment income, and the speed of share repurchases following $904 million in capital returned last quarter.
erase underwriting gains. Softer commercial pricing and lower investment
income would also limit earnings growth.
| Ticker | Price | Forecast | Fwd P/E | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | $421.20 | Q3 sales $44.6bn–$45.8bn | 19.1× | $540.20 | +28.3% | $414–$424 |
| AER | $150.81 | 2026 guide $16.80 | 9.0× | $179.30 | +18.9% | $148–$152 |
| CEG | $274.00 | 2026 midpoint $12.00 | 22.8× | $349.96 | +27.7% | $266–$274 |
| DIS | $102.99 | FY2027 consensus $7.48 | 13.8× | $127.72 | +24.0% | $101–$105 |
| AIG | $78.12 | 2026 consensus $8.02 | 9.7× | $88.60 | +13.4% | $76.50–$79 |
Prices shown are delayed intraday figures as of around 10:29 ET. Forward multiples are based on the specific earnings estimates or management guidance for each company. Analyst targets represent estimates and are not guaranteed returns; intraday prices may fluctuate rapidly.
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
Results and updated forecasts
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
Valuation compared to projections
Entry quality remains consistent following the move.
Short-term event risk
Use limit orders and build each position in three tranches.
Avoid buying if prices break above the specified ceiling. Trim the initial position if Brent stays above $88 or the 10-year yield exceeds 4.75%. Hold any cash not yet invested until after Wednesday’s CPI, then review the outlook following PPI and retail sales data.
NYSE: BRK.B
GOOD REPORT, POORER ENTRY
Shares have risen about 2.3% following the results. While the balance sheet remains solid, the model is holding off for a dip below $525 instead of buying at the current level near $534.
NYSE: LNG
OIL-DRIVEN GAP
Shares are up roughly 2.4% alongside the energy sector. The LNG cash flow outlook remains solid, but today’s gains are closely linked to crude prices and headlines around Hormuz. Consider a reassessment if the stock falls below $258.
NASDAQ: MNDY
GUIDANCE RESET
Quarterly revenue increased 22%, but weaker short-term guidance led shares to fall 7.6%, with significant intraday volatility. Consider waiting for two sessions of support before seeing the decline as a buying opportunity.
NASDAQ: INTC
DILUTION RISK
The announcement of a $15bn share sale sent the stock down roughly 4%. While the move could bolster the balance sheet, investors will want to see the pricing and potential dilution details before considering new positions.
7.1 / 10
Elevated but not extreme. TSM and CEG face both duration and policy risks, with oil prices and yields climbing ahead of CPI data. AerCap and AIG offer valuation support, while Disney shows a rebound in cash flow instead of just another AI-driven story.
Brent crude remains above $86, while the 10-year yield hovers near 4.69%, limiting the market’s tolerance for an upside inflation surprise. A tame CPI reading could support further gains from record levels, but a hotter print would likely hit TSM and CEG early. Maintain positions below target until each stock returns to its entry range.