STOCKHOLM, August 18, 2026, 14:36 CEST – H&M stock rose 3.1% following an insider buy valued at SEK 544 million, contrasting with the prevailing sell ratings from analysts.
Shares of H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB STO:HM-B advanced 3.1% to SEK 178.10 on Tuesday after the founding family acquired around SEK 544 million in shares and Citi issued a positive catalyst call. The stock outpaced the broader European market, which declined.
The valuation now surpasses forecasts from analysts. H&M shares were trading 4.0% higher than Citi’s revised SEK 171 price target and about 13% over the broader consensus target.
| Price reference | SEK | Gap from SEK 178.10 |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday at 14:09 CEST | 178.10 | — |
| Citi price target | 171.00 | -4.0% |
| Consensus analyst target | 154.90 | -13.0% |
| 12-month high | 194.30 | +9.1% |
Ramsbury Invest, under the control of the Persson family, acquired around 3.1 million B shares. The transactions took place between August 12 and August 14 at prices ranging from SEK 175.20 to SEK 175.70, a filing referencing Swedish regulatory disclosures showed.
The acquisition amounts to roughly 10.7% of Citi’s projected third-quarter adjusted operating profit. While this isn’t a valuation metric, it highlights the size of the insider commitment ahead of earnings.
Citi maintained its Neutral rating and increased its price target from SEK 158. The bank now forecasts third-quarter constant-currency sales to grow 0.8%, compared to its previous projection of a 0.5% decrease. The estimate for adjusted operating profit was raised to SEK 5.091 billion, which is 4% higher than the consensus.
The margin performance, rather than stated sales, is key to the earnings outlook. H&M’s revenue for its fiscal second quarter dropped 3.3% in kronor. However, gross margin increased by 120 basis points, and adjusted operating profit was up 11%.
| Fiscal Q2 metric | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | SEK 54.828bn | SEK 56.714bn | -3.3% |
| Gross margin | 56.6% | 55.4% | +120 bp |
| Adjusted operating profit | SEK 6.592bn | SEK 5.914bn | +11% |
| Adjusted operating margin | 12.0% | 10.4% | +160 bp |
| Inventory | SEK 34.942bn | SEK 38.817bn | -10% |
| Stores | 4,038 | 4,166 | -128 |
Chief Executive Daniel Ervér stated that sales came in “somewhat lower than planned.” He noted that restricted inventory had an impact on H&M’s “ability to fully meet demand.” The balance is significant as the group maintains discipline on markdowns. H&M results statement
Analysts continue to take a defensive stance. Of the 26 analysts monitored, just one recommends a Buy. Half maintain Sell ratings, indicating limited cushion for a disappointing September update.
| Analyst or consensus | Recommendation | Target | Implied gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citi | Neutral | SEK 171 | -4.0% |
| UBS | Hold | SEK 168 | -5.7% |
| Barclays | Sell | SEK 157 | -11.8% |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | SEK 155 | -13.0% |
| 26-analyst consensus | 1 Buy / 12 Hold / 13 Sell | SEK 154.90 | -13.0% |
River Island’s announcement of a 33-store restructuring also sparked renewed search activity. The retailer’s Sheffield location is set to shut on September 1, with Swansea to close on September 12. The resulting local demand may be redirected, but the broader impact on H&M nationwide remains unclear.
H&M has reduced its store count, with 128 fewer locations compared to the previous year at the end of May. The retailer is wagering that a smaller number of outlets, improved stock management and an increase in full-price sales will boost profit ahead of revenue growth.
Citi projects a third-quarter gross margin of 53.3%, an increase of 39 basis points. The bank’s fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast climbed 6%, yet still trails the Visible Alpha consensus by 3%. Citi maintained its Neutral rating.
Risks: Margin recovery could be hampered by currency pressures, tariffs, and wary consumers. Citi noted that potential tariff refunds might reach SEK 1.45 billion, though both timing and qualification are still unclear.
The September earnings report is the next key event. Investors now require profit figures robust enough to support a valuation higher than both Citi’s target and the consensus analyst estimate.
