10x Genomics (TXG) Stock: Citi Downgrade, AI Partnerships and 2026 Forecast After December 11 Sell-Off

10x Genomics, Inc. (NASDAQ: TXG) — a leading player in single-cell and spatial biology — is back in the spotlight after a sharp share-price drop on 11 December 2025. A high-profile analyst downgrade from Citigroup hit the stock the same morning, even as the company pushes forward with ambitious AI collaborations and cancer atlas projects that could shape its long-term growth story. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at what moved TXG today, how Wall Street views the stock heading into 2026, and what recent partnerships and earnings say about its future.

Key Takeaways

TXG fell around 6% on 11 December 2025 after Citigroup cut its rating from Buy to Neutral while keeping its $18 price target. ^[2]
Shares trade in the mid‑$16 range, down over 6% on the day but still up more than 20% year to date, with a market cap around $2.2–2.3 billion. ^[3]
Q3 2025 results beat expectations: $149M in revenue (down ~2% year over year) and EPS of –$0.22 vs –$0.27 consensus, with operating losses narrowing and cash of $482M. ^[4]
Guidance remains cautious: Q4 2025 revenue is guided to fall ~6% year over year despite sequential growth, and Street models point to flat-to-slightly-declining revenue in 2026 with continued losses. ^[5]
Strategic upside drivers include AI and spatial biology: partnerships with Anthropic’s Claude for Life Sciences, the ASTRA pan‑cancer spatial atlas, and large-scale single-cell platforms like Chromium Flex. ^[6]
Analyst consensus is cautious but not bearish: most aggregators show a Hold–leaning consensus with average 12‑month price targets clustered around $15–17, slightly below or near the current share price. ^[7]

10x Genomics Stock Today: December 11, 2025

During the morning session on 11 December 2025, 10x Genomics shares dropped roughly 6% after Citigroup moved its rating from Buy to Neutral while keeping a $18 price target. ^[8]

Intraday quotes across news feeds show TXG trading around $16.4–$16.7, down more than 6% on heavy volume. ^[9] Despite today’s sell‑off, the stock remains up more than 20% year to date, though it trades meaningfully below its recent 52‑week high near $20. ^[10]

MarketBeat’s snapshot puts TXG’s market capitalization around $2.2 billion, with a 1‑year trading range of $6.78–$20.34 and a beta above 2, underlining just how volatile this stock has been. ^[11]

Why Did Citigroup Downgrade 10x Genomics?

Citigroup’s move is the immediate catalyst for today’s weakness. According to MT Newswires and Wall Street downgrade trackers, Citi shifted its rating on TXG from Buy to Neutral while reaffirming an $18 price target. ^[12]

A separate analysis from TipRanks summarises Citi’s concerns:

Cautious customer spending in academic and biopharma research labs.
Uncertainty around the pace of recovery in the broader biotech tools sector.
Intensifying competition in single‑cell and spatial biology, which could pressure growth and margins. ^[13]

TipRanks also notes that recent insider selling has added to negative sentiment, even though technical indicators there still flag the stock as a “Buy” on a trading basis. ^[14]

In other words, Citi isn’t calling for disaster — its target still implies modest upside from current levels — but it no longer believes the risk/reward skew justifies a Buy rating after the stock’s strong run into late 2025.

A Second Big Downgrade: Morgan Stanley Turned Cautious Too

Citigroup isn’t the first heavyweight to cool on 10x Genomics.

On 2 December 2025, Morgan Stanley analyst Tejas Savant downgraded TXG from “Overweight” to “Equal-Weight”, even while raising the price target from $17 to $20. ^[15]

That combination — higher target, lower rating — reflects a familiar logic:

The stock has rallied enough that upside to fair value looks more limited.
Execution risk remains, particularly around instrument demand and the pace of consumables growth.
The research funding environment is still choppy, making long‑range forecasts less reliable. ^[16]

Simply Wall St’s valuation narrative, last updated on 11 December, suggests a fair value estimate around $16.6, only slightly below where the stock trades now, and describes the risk/reward as “balanced” rather than obviously cheap or expensive. ^[17]

Fundamentals Check: Q3 2025 Earnings and Guidance

The current debate around TXG is happening against the backdrop of solid, but not spectacular recent results.

Q3 2025 by the numbers

For the quarter ended 30 September 2025, 10x Genomics reported: ^[18]

Revenue: $149.0 million
- Down about 1.8–2.0% year over year.
- Above the consensus estimate of roughly $142–143 million.
EPS (diluted): –$0.22
- Better than the –$0.27 expected by analysts.
- An improvement from –$0.30 in the prior-year quarter.
Gross margin: 67%, down from 70% a year earlier, reflecting product mix and inventory write‑downs.
Operating expenses: $132.5 million, about 10% lower than a year ago.
Operating loss: narrowed to $32.2 million from $41.5 million.
Net loss: $27.5 million vs $35.8 million in Q3 2024.
Cash and marketable securities: $482.1 million at quarter‑end.

Zacks highlighted the quarter as a double beat — better-than-expected revenue and EPS — and temporarily assigned TXG a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) in early November, noting the stock had outperformed the S&P 500 in the weeks after earnings. ^[19]

Q4 2025 guidance

Management guided Q4 2025 revenue to $154–158 million. At the midpoint, this implies: ^[20]

Around 5% sequential growth over Q3.
About 6% year‑over‑year decline, reflecting tough comps and softer instrument demand.

The guidance underlines the core tension in the TXG story:

The company is clearly improving its cost structure and narrowing losses,
But top‑line growth is lumpy and not yet on a reliable upward trajectory, especially on the instrument side.

Strategic Growth Drivers: AI, Spatial Atlases and High-Throughput Single Cell

While short‑term estimates and downgrades drive the day‑to‑day price, 10x’s long‑term thesis still rests on its technology platform and ecosystem.

Partnership with Anthropic and Claude for Life Sciences

In October 2025, 10x Genomics announced a collaboration with Anthropic to integrate its analysis tools into Claude for Life Sciences via the Model Context Protocol. ^[21]

Key points from the announcement:

Researchers can run single-cell and spatial data analyses through natural‑language queries, rather than command-line tools.
Claude connects to 10x Cloud Analysis, allowing large, complex data sets to be processed at scale.
The integration is explicitly designed to lower the computational barrier for biologists who aren’t bioinformatics experts. ^[22]

This is strategically important because anything that makes 10x data easier to analyse tends to increase the value of the underlying instruments and consumables.

ASTRA: Pan-Cancer Spatial Atlas for Asia-Pacific

On 18 November 2025, 10x Genomics, the Garvan Institute of Medical Research and the University of Tokyo launched the Asia-Pacific Spatial Translational Research Alliance (ASTRA). ^[23]

ASTRA will use the Xenium spatial platform to map cancer–immune interactions across 2,000 tumour samples spanning ten major cancer types.
The project aims to build a pan‑cancer spatial atlas that reflects the genetic and clinical diversity of under‑represented Asia‑Pacific populations.
It is supported by the ASPIRE program (a bilateral initiative between Japan’s AMED and Australia’s NHMRC). ^[24]

Beyond the scientific impact, ASTRA serves as a flagship use case for Xenium and for spatial biology more broadly, potentially driving adoption and recurring consumables revenue over time.

Large‑Scale Single Cell: Chromium Flex and High-Throughput Workflows

10x has also been upgrading its core single‑cell portfolio:

A recent announcement highlighted a next‑generation Chromium Flex assay with automation‑ready, plate‑based multiplexing, cited as enabling single‑cell profiling of up to hundreds of samples and tens of millions of cells per week in large functional genomics studies. ^[25]

These capabilities matter because the economics of single‑cell sequencing are increasingly about scale: labs want to run bigger experiments at lower cost per cell. If Flex and related platforms deliver on that promise, 10x could strengthen its moat even if end‑market funding remains choppy.

Additional research collaborations

10x has also been visible in projects like the TISHUMAP study with Singapore’s ASTAR Genome Institute, which focuses on AI‑driven drug target discovery in lung cancer using spatial technologies. ^[26]STAR

Together, these initiatives reinforce 10x’s position as a platform company embedded in cutting‑edge research workflows across oncology, immunology and neuroscience, even as its income statement remains firmly in the red.

What Are Analysts Forecasting for TXG?

Analyst and model‑driven forecasts tell a consistent story: slow growth, improving losses, but no near‑term profitability.

Revenue and earnings estimates

Across several aggregators:

StockAnalysis (13 analysts)
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: $14.73, implying about 12% downside from ~$16.7 at mid‑day. ^[27]
WallStreetZen (7 analysts)
- Consensus: “Buy” (2 Strong Buy, 5 Hold)
- Average target: $16.71, suggesting a small downside of ~5% from a reference price of $17.53. ^[28]
ValueInvesting.io (23 analysts)
- Consensus recommendation: “Hold”
- Average target: $16.86 (range $14.14–$21.00), again roughly flat to slightly below current levels. ^[29]

On fundamentals, those same sources generally expect: ^[30]

2025 revenue around $638 million, about 4.5% growth vs 2024.
2026 revenue around $616 million, implying low‑single‑digit decline as instrument softness weighs on the top line.
EPS improving from roughly –$1.5 in 2024 to about –$0.50 in 2025, but remaining negative in 2026 (around –$0.96 on average).

WallStreetZen also notes that TXG’s forecast revenue growth (~0.6% annually) and ROA (0%) lag both its Health Information Services peer group and the broader U.S. equity market. ^[31]

MarketBeat: Hold consensus and insider context

MarketBeat’s synthesis points to: ^[32]

4 analysts rating TXG Buy, 10 Hold, 2 Sell.
A consensus rating of “Hold” with an average target around $15.12.
A company profile emphasising its Chromium and Xenium platforms, plus software and consumables, sold across the U.S., EMEA, China and Asia-Pacific.

MarketBeat also highlights recent insider selling: over the past three months, insiders sold roughly 33,000 shares (~$635,000), including transactions by co‑founder Benjamin Hindson and CFO Adam Taich at about $19 per share. ^[33] Filings indicate at least some of these sales were to cover tax obligations from vesting restricted stock units, and insiders retain substantial holdings.

Algorithmic and technical models

Not all forecasts are sober.

Quant site StockScan assigns TXG a “Strong Buy” based on technical indicators and publishes an eye‑popping 12‑month average price target above $120, implying several hundred percent upside — far above mainstream analyst estimates and explicitly presented with a strong disclaimer. ^[34]

Such model‑driven projections are best read as scenario generators, not base cases. They highlight that TXG is a high‑beta, momentum‑sensitive stock more than they provide a realistic price road map.

Risk Factors: Spending Cycles, Competition and Volatility

Despite its scientific cachet, 10x Genomics is not a low‑risk investment.

1. Research spending and macro sensitivity

Both Morgan Stanley and Citigroup flag academic and biopharma spending as a key swing factor. If labs delay instrument purchases or scale back projects, 10x’s instrument revenue can drop quickly, and consumables growth may slow. ^[35]

The Q3 numbers already show declining instrument revenue offset partly by consumables, and Q4 guidance calls for a year‑over‑year revenue decline despite sequential growth. ^[36]

2. Competition in single-cell and spatial genomics

Single‑cell and spatial biology are crowded spaces, with rivals offering alternative platforms and chemistries. Several analyst notes cite pricing pressure and the risk of share loss as reasons to temper long‑term margin assumptions. ^[37]

3. Persistent losses and valuation

Despite narrowing losses, 10x remains unprofitable, with a negative net margin near –12% and forecast full‑year 2025 EPS of about –1.43. ^[38]

Using MarketBeat’s market‑cap figure (~$2.22B) and consensus 2025 revenue (~$638M), shares trade at roughly 3.5× forward sales, not outrageous for a growth tools company but not “deep value” either given the lack of profitability and muted growth outlook. ^[39]

4. Volatility and insider signals

A beta above 2 and recurring 5%+ daily moves (both up and down) make TXG inherently volatile. ^[40]

Recent insider sales — largely RSU‑related but still sizeable — and a short interest around 11% also point to a stock that can move sharply when sentiment shifts. ^[41]

Bull vs. Bear: How the Story Stacks Up After December 11

The bull case

Supportive analysts and long‑term‑oriented investors tend to emphasise: ^[42]

10x is deeply embedded in cutting‑edge biology — oncology, immunology, neuroscience — and platform tools like Xenium and Chromium can drive years of consumables revenue.
Major initiatives such as ASTRA and AI integrations with Claude for Life Sciences increase the value of the platform and lower barriers to adoption.
The company is controlling costs and narrowing losses while still investing heavily in R&D, backed by a robust cash position.
High‑profile institutional investors, including ARK Investment Management, have recently bought sizable positions (around 222,000 shares per Simply Wall St’s narrative), signalling renewed long‑term conviction in the platform. ^[43]

The bear case

More cautious voices argue that: ^[44]

Growth is too slow and too uneven to justify a premium valuation, especially with flat or shrinking revenue forecast for 2026.
Sustained profitability remains several years away, and the company’s returns on capital are forecast to lag both peers and the broader market.
Competition in single‑cell and spatial genomics could erode pricing power and compress margins as the field matures.
Recent downgrades from Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, plus insider selling, suggest accumulating risks rather than resolving them.

TXG Stock Outlook: What December 11 Means for Investors

Putting it all together, 10x Genomics in December 2025 looks like a high‑quality scientific platform with a middling near‑term financial profile:

The science and ecosystem look strong — AI‑driven workflows, global consortia like ASTRA, and high‑throughput single‑cell tools give TXG real strategic depth. ^[45]
The income statement is improving but fragile, with modest revenue growth, shrinking losses and periodic guidance cuts as funding cycles wobble. ^[46]
The valuation, after the recent rally and today’s pullback, looks roughly in line with most fair‑value estimates, which cluster in the mid‑teens. ^[47]

For risk‑tolerant growth investors, TXG may still be an attractive way to get exposure to single‑cell and spatial biology, with the understanding that the ride is likely to remain volatile and highly sensitive to funding headlines and analyst sentiment.

For more conservative investors, the recent double downgrade sequence (Morgan Stanley and Citi) plus the Hold‑tilted consensus and flat growth forecasts may justify a watch‑list stance rather than immediate action. ^[48]

Either way, 10x Genomics is a stock where fundamental progress and sentiment can diverge sharply from quarter to quarter — making position sizing, time horizon, and risk management just as important as the underlying story.

References