December 20, 2025 — AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) is closing out the week in the spotlight as U.S. drug-pricing policy headlines collide with a still-strong “post-Humira” growth narrative built around Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The stock finished the last regular session (Friday, Dec. 19) at $226.82, up 1.80%, while trading volume surged well above its recent average — a sign that investors were repositioning into large-cap pharma after a rapid sequence of Washington announcements. [1]
Below is a full roundup of what’s driving AbbVie stock right now (as of 20.12.2025), what analysts are forecasting, and which catalysts could matter most heading into early 2026.
AbbVie stock price action: a high-volume move as policy news hits pharma
AbbVie outperformed several major pharma peers in Friday’s session and saw unusually heavy trading volume, according to MarketWatch’s market recap. [2] A key reason: investors are re-assessing policy risk in big pharma after the White House expanded its “most-favored-nation” (MFN) style pricing push — a development that has implications not just for near-term sentiment but also for longer-term pricing power.
Separately, market data from the latest trade snapshot shows ABBV around $226.82 with an intraday range that included a high near $229.
Why the volume matters: in defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals, volume spikes often show up when investors are reacting to regulation headlines, rerating dividend-heavy names, or rotating into “cash flow + pipeline” stories ahead of earnings.
The biggest headline risk (and possible catalyst): Trump’s drug-pricing deals and AbbVie’s “next-up” status
1) Reuters: AbbVie was expected to be among companies nearing MFN-style agreements
On Dec. 17, Reuters reported that AbbVie and several other drugmakers were expected to announce agreements with the U.S. government to lower certain prescription drug prices and meet other demands tied to President Donald Trump’s push to align U.S. prices with those abroad. [3]
2) Dec. 19 announcements: nine additional drugmakers sign—AbbVie still not in the signed group
On Dec. 19, Reuters and other outlets reported that nine major pharmaceutical companies finalized agreements to cut prices for certain drugs (including for Medicaid and cash-paying consumers), alongside commitments related to future pricing and direct-to-consumer access through TrumpRx.gov. [4]
However, multiple reports also pointed out that AbbVie remains among the prominent companies still expected to be included in future agreements (often listed alongside Johnson & Johnson and Regeneron). MarketWatch explicitly noted those three as the remaining firms expected to join later. [5]
What this means for ABBV investors:
Policy uncertainty can cut both ways. On one hand, a deal could reduce headline/tariff/regulatory overhang. On the other, MFN-style commitments raise investor questions about pricing flexibility for future launches — especially for high-value specialty medicines.
Medicare pricing pressure is evolving: new CMS pilots and IRA-linked negotiated prices
AbbVie’s exposure to U.S. reimbursement dynamics is being watched closely, especially because several of its therapies touch Medicare-heavy patient populations.
CMS announces new international-reference-style pilot programs
Late on Dec. 19, Reuters reported that the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced two pilot programs aimed at lowering out-of-pocket drug costs by aligning certain Medicare drug prices with those in comparable countries. Under Reuters’ summary:
- GLOBE (Part B) would launch Oct. 1, 2026 and run through 2031
- GUARD (Part D) would launch Jan. 1, 2027 and run through Dec. 31, 2031 [6]
These programs are not “AbbVie-only” issues — but they shape the valuation framework investors apply to large U.S. drugmakers.
Report on 2026 out-of-pocket costs: Imbruvica still expensive
On Dec. 18, Reuters reported that Medicare enrollees are expected to pay roughly 50% less out-of-pocket in 2026 for some drugs, but highlighted that patients on certain high-cost therapies — including AbbVie’s leukemia therapy Imbruvica — could still face high monthly out-of-pocket costs. [7]
Earlier Medicare-linked list-price changes: deeper-than-expected cuts cited by analysts
In late November, Reuters noted that AbbVie’s list price cuts on certain products (including Linzess and Vraylar) were viewed by at least one analyst as deeper than expected, underscoring how pricing pressure can show up even before formal Medicare negotiation effects fully roll through. [8]
Investor takeaway:
AbbVie’s bull case has leaned heavily on durable growth in immunology and neuroscience, plus a reliable dividend. But the market is now layering in a bigger “policy discount rate” across the group — and ABBV’s near-term reaction may depend on whether policy shifts are perceived as (a) manageable, or (b) margin compressive.
Fundamentals check: Skyrizi and Rinvoq are still doing the heavy lifting
AbbVie’s core narrative in 2025 has been the shift from Humira (after U.S. biosimilar competition) to newer growth engines. The company’s third-quarter 2025 update remains one of the most important reference points investors are using to calibrate expectations.
Q3 2025: strong immunology growth, mixed elsewhere
In AbbVie’s Q3 2025 release, the company reported:
- Skyrizi global net revenues of $4.708 billion (up 46.8%)
- Rinvoq global net revenues of $2.184 billion (up 35.3%)
- Immunology portfolio net revenues of $7.885 billion (up 11.9%)
- Neuroscience portfolio net revenues of $2.841 billion (up 20.2%)
- Oncology portfolio net revenues of $1.682 billion (down 0.3%), with Imbruvica declining [9]
Guidance and the “earnings quality” debate
AbbVie raised its 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $10.61–$10.65 in that Q3 update, while also noting the impact of acquired IPR&D and milestones expense. [10]
Investors have been parsing these updates carefully because acquisition and collaboration costs can temporarily cloud “clean” operating leverage — even when underlying brands are performing well.
2025 sales outlook keeps improving
Industry coverage in late October emphasized that AbbVie increased its 2025 revenue projection again, and highlighted management confidence driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq demand. Fierce Pharma reported expectations including Skyrizi 2025 sales around $17.3 billion (as described in its coverage of AbbVie’s revised outlook). [11]
Dividend watch: AbbVie’s payout rises again in 2026
For many shareholders, AbbVie is as much a dividend stock as it is a growth story.
- AbbVie’s board declared a 5.5% dividend increase, raising the quarterly dividend from $1.64 to $1.73 per share, beginning with the payment scheduled for Feb. 17, 2026 (record date Jan. 16, 2026). [12]
- Market quote pages list forward annual dividends around $6.92 and a forward yield around ~3% at current prices. [13]
Why it matters now:
In a market increasingly sensitive to policy swings, yield plus dividend growth can act as a stabilizer — but only if investors believe long-term margins remain defensible.
Pipeline and competitive landscape: protection wins, new threats
A major positive: Rinvoq protection extends far out
A September Reuters report noted AbbVie expected no generic competition for Rinvoq until April 2037 following a settlement, which analysts framed as a meaningful extension of the franchise runway. [14]
That matters because Rinvoq is central to AbbVie’s plan to offset Humira’s decline and sustain growth into the next decade.
Near-term pipeline visibility: launches and label expansions
Recent sell-side style commentary has focused on the cadence of launches and expansions expected across AbbVie’s pipeline (particularly immunology and neuroscience). Zacks highlighted AbbVie’s lineup of late-stage launches and regulatory milestones. [15]
Competitive pressure is not standing still: psoriasis innovation
On Dec. 18, Reuters reported that Takeda’s AI-developed experimental pill zasocitinib succeeded in late-stage plaque psoriasis studies and could become a new competitor in a market that includes leading injectable biologics such as Skyrizi. [16]
Even if the market remains large and growing, new entrants can influence the pricing and share assumptions embedded in AbbVie valuation models.
December scientific data flow: oncology spotlight at ASH
AbbVie also promoted new data being featured at ASH 2025, underscoring its continued push in blood cancers and novel modalities. [17]
For equity investors, conference data is often less about immediate revenue and more about whether the pipeline can “replenish” growth as today’s blockbusters mature.
Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see AbbVie stock heading
Analyst outlooks into year-end 2025 are notably mixed — not because AbbVie lacks cash flow, but because the stock’s valuation, pipeline timing, and policy environment are being weighed differently across firms.
Consensus price targets cluster in the mid-$240s (with a wide range)
- Zacks summarizes a broad target range, with forecasts spanning roughly $203 to $289. [18]
- A widely cited “1-year target estimate” around $244.68 appears on major quote pages, implying moderate upside from the current zone. [19]
Recent rating actions shaping sentiment in December
- HSBC upgraded AbbVie on Dec. 10, 2025 and raised its price target to $265 (as reflected in analyst-rating aggregations). [20]
- Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight stance with a price target reported at $269 on Dec. 12, 2025, per Benzinga’s analyst-rating compilation. [21]
- Bank of America lowered its price target to $233 from $248 while keeping a Neutral rating, citing a premium multiple and limited late-stage catalysts (per The Fly via TipRanks). [22]
How to read the split:
- Bulls are leaning on durable immunology growth, reinforced franchise protection (Rinvoq), and dividend dependability.
- Cautious analysts are focusing on valuation, the timing of “next wave” pipeline catalysts, and the possibility that U.S. pricing policy could compress industry economics over time.
What to watch next for AbbVie (ABBV) heading into 2026
Here are the near-term catalysts and “known unknowns” most likely to move ABBV as of Dec. 20, 2025:
- Any AbbVie-specific MFN/TrumpRx agreement announcement
Reuters previously reported AbbVie was among drugmakers nearing a deal; the market may reprice the stock depending on the details and scope. [23] - Further CMS/Medicare policy details
The newly announced CMS pilot programs (GLOBE and GUARD) are still light on operational detail, but markets often trade the direction of travel before the fine print arrives. [24] - Next earnings window (late Jan / early Feb 2026 estimates)
Multiple earnings calendars currently estimate AbbVie’s next report around Jan. 30, 2026, though the company’s official announcement is the final authority. [25] - Pipeline readouts and label expansions
Investors will keep tracking the cadence of meaningful late-stage updates, especially anything that changes peak-sales expectations for major brands. - Competitive read-through in immunology (especially psoriasis and IBD)
New entrants like Takeda’s late-stage psoriasis pill may not be immediate revenue hits to AbbVie, but they can shift expectations about share, pricing, and category growth. [26]
Bottom line for AbbVie stock on Dec. 20, 2025
As of 20.12.2025, AbbVie stock is being pulled by two powerful forces at once:
- A company-specific strength story (Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth, franchise protection, and a rising dividend). [27]
- A macro policy reset around U.S. drug pricing that is moving fast and widening the range of plausible outcomes for big pharma valuations. [28]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. news.abbvie.com, 10. news.abbvie.com, 11. www.fiercepharma.com, 12. news.abbvie.com, 13. finance.yahoo.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.zacks.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. news.abbvie.com, 18. www.zacks.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. www.benzinga.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. news.abbvie.com, 28. www.reuters.com
