New York, February 6, 2026, 15:56 ET — Regular session
- The stock dropped 5.2% to $15.61, having bounced between $17.69 and $15.08.
- Fourth-quarter revenue jumped 51% to $71.7 million. The company now sees 2026 MRD revenue landing between $255 million and $265 million.
- The CEO reported selling shares on Feb. 2, while BTIG bumped its price target up to $22.
Shares of Adaptive Biotechnologies dropped 5.2% to $15.61 Friday afternoon, giving up early gains as enthusiasm over the company’s quarterly results and 2026 outlook faded. The stock’s range for the day ran from $17.69 down to $15.08.
Adaptive’s clonoSEQ test zeroes in on minimal residual disease, or MRD—those hard-to-detect cancer cells that sometimes slip through after treatment, signaling possible relapse. As MRD monitoring grabs attention from both oncologists and drug companies, investors are left scrutinizing which players will actually convert rising test volumes and improved reimbursement into steady cash flow.
Adaptive posted fourth-quarter revenue of $71.7 million late Thursday, jumping 51% year over year, with the MRD segment making up 86% of sales. The company reduced its net loss to 9 cents per share from 23 cents. For 2026, Adaptive projected MRD revenue between $255 million and $265 million and expects total operating expenses in a $350 million to $360 million range. No revenue forecast was provided for the Immune Medicine unit. CEO Chad Robins described 2025 as “an outstanding year”: MRD revenue climbed 46%, while clonoSEQ test volume hit 105,587, up 39%. The company pointed to expanded Medicare coverage for clonoSEQ and announced two data-licensing deals with Pfizer. By the end of 2025, Adaptive had $240.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. 1
On the call, executives projected clonoSEQ volumes climbing more than 30% in 2026. The company is aiming for an average selling price of around $1,400 and wants to end 2026 with both positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. CFO Kyle Piskel flagged “some level of execution risk” tied to renegotiating two major payer contracts, which could impact about 17%-18% of clonoSEQ volume. 2
BTIG bumped its price target on Adaptive up to $22 from $21, sticking with its buy call and pointing to what it described as “firing on all cylinders” after the latest quarter. The commentary arrived as traders looked hard at expenses even as MRD growth continued to draw attention. 3
CEO and Chairman Chad M. Robins offloaded 124,998 shares on Feb. 2 for a weighted average of $18.44, according to a regulatory filing from earlier this week. The sale took place under a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan. Robins disclosed roughly 2.46 million shares still in his possession after the transaction. 4
Still, the stock’s sharp turnaround highlights just how closely investors are watching pricing and reimbursement bets—particularly now that MRD testing isn’t a one-horse race, with rivals like Natera and Guardant Health in the mix. If volumes fall short, or if payments from insurers drag, Adaptive could be forced to clamp down on costs even more just to stay on track with its profitability goals.
Immune Medicine continues to be tough to model. Revenue mainly arrives via partnerships and licensing deals—no guidance was provided.
Watch Feb. 9: that’s when Adaptive’s collaboration and license agreement with Genentech is slated to end, per an earlier company filing. Investors are looking for any word on new partners or initial signals from payer contract negotiations—either could set the tone for where the stock heads next. 5
