Adobe Earnings Today: Q4 2025 Preview, Last Quarter’s Results, and What ChatGPT Integration Means for ADBE Stock

Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) reports its fourth-quarter and full‑year fiscal 2025 earnings after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, with a conference call scheduled from 2–3 p.m. Pacific Time (5–6 p.m. ET). ^[1]

Wall Street is bracing for record quarterly revenue, a fresh read on demand for Adobe’s AI products, and early commentary on its new ChatGPT integration for Photoshop, Adobe Express and Acrobat — all against the backdrop of a high‑stakes Federal Reserve decision later in the day. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at what analysts expect today and how Adobe performed last quarter, plus the key themes to watch for ADBE stock.

When Does Adobe Report Q4 2025 Earnings?

Earnings release: After U.S. market close, Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Earnings call: 2:00–3:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00–6:00 p.m. ET)
Format: Live webcast via Adobe’s Investor Relations site, with a replay available after the call. ^[3]

Adobe’s report lands within hours of the Fed’s December policy decision, which markets expect to feature a “hawkish cut” — a rate reduction tempered by cautious guidance on further easing. That combination could amplify any move in ADBE shares following the earnings release. ^[4]

Wall Street Expectations for Adobe’s Q4 2025 Earnings

Headline numbers

Across multiple data providers, expectations are tightly clustered around a solid, record-setting quarter:

Revenue: Around $6.1 billion, up roughly 9% year over year, which would mark Adobe’s first quarter above the $6 billion mark. ^[5]
EPS (non‑GAAP): Consensus of about $5.39–$5.40 per share, up from $4.81 in the prior‑year quarter. ^[6]

MarketBeat’s earnings page shows the consensus Q4 EPS at $5.39 and expected revenue of $6.11 billion, consistent with these forecasts. ^[7]

Segment forecasts

Visible Alpha data summarized by S&P Global suggests investors are expecting balanced growth across Adobe’s main businesses: ^[8]

Digital Media (Creative Cloud + Document Cloud):
- Revenue projected around $4.5 billion, up about 10% year over year.
- Digital Media annual recurring revenue (ARR) forecast near $19.2 billion, almost 11% higher than a year ago, helped by Firefly, Acrobat AI Assistant and GenStudio.
Digital Experience (Experience Cloud):
- Revenue expected around $1.5 billion, roughly 8% year‑over‑year growth.
Publishing & Advertising:
- Still a small, shrinking segment, with revenue expected to fall to about $53 million, down close to 18% year over year.

These estimates broadly align with Adobe’s own Q4 guidance issued alongside its Q3 report, which called for: ^[9]

Total revenue between $6.075–$6.125 billion
Digital Media revenue of $4.53–$4.56 billion
Digital Experience revenue of $1.495–$1.515 billion
Q4 non‑GAAP EPS of $5.35–$5.40

In short, Wall Street is looking for Adobe to meet or slightly exceed the top end of its own guidance, continuing its multi‑year pattern of modest beats.

Options and Sentiment: How Big a Move Is Priced In?

Options markets are preparing for heightened volatility:

TipRanks’ options tracking tool shows traders pricing in roughly a 7.6% move in either direction following the Q4 report, slightly below Adobe’s average move of about 8.3% over the past four quarters. ^[10]

Analyst sentiment remains constructive but more cautious than during the early AI euphoria:

S&P Global notes that ADBE shares are down roughly 25% year to date, reflecting fears about rising AI competition and slowing growth in core creative tools. ^[11]
MarketBeat data shows Adobe trading at about 21× trailing EPS of $16.05, with consensus calling for EPS to grow to $18.93 next year — roughly 14% growth. ^[12]

Several brokers have trimmed price targets but kept positive ratings. Recent commentary includes: ^[13]

JPMorgan: Overweight, $520 price target, citing durable growth and positive customer feedback on AI tools.
Barclays: Overweight, target cut to $415, expecting solid Digital Media ARR but acknowledging competitive pressure.
Piper Sandler: Overweight, target $470, supportive after the Semrush deal.
Bernstein SocGen: Outperform, target $508.
Stifel: Buy, target trimmed to $450.
TD Cowen: Hold, target $420, looking for steady but slightly decelerating growth into 2026.

Overall, expectations are high but not euphoric — which means a routine “in‑line” quarter and cautious guidance could still disappoint short‑term traders.

Quick Recap: Adobe’s Last Earnings (Q3 FY 2025)

Adobe’s most recent results, reported on September 11, 2025, set the stage for today’s report. ^[14]

Q3 2025 headline numbers

According to Adobe’s official release and Zacks/Nasdaq summaries: ^[15]

Revenue:
- $5.99 billion, a record quarter for Adobe
- Up about 10–11% year over year (roughly 10% in constant currency)
Earnings:
- GAAP EPS: $4.18
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $5.31, beating the consensus estimate of $5.18
Profitability and cash:
- GAAP operating income around $2.17 billion, with non‑GAAP operating income about $2.77 billion
- GAAP net income roughly $1.77 billion, non‑GAAP net income about $2.25 billion
- Operating cash flow: about $2.2 billion

Segment performance in Q3

Zacks’ breakdown and Adobe’s press release highlight robust growth in both of Adobe’s major clouds: ^[16]

Digital Media:
- Revenue of about $4.46 billion, up 12% year over year.
- Digital Media ARR ended the quarter around $18.59 billion, growing nearly 12% from the prior year.
Digital Experience:
- Revenue about $1.48 billion, up roughly 9–11% year over year.
- Subscription revenue within this segment was about $1.37 billion, growing around 11% year over year.
Publishing & Advertising:
- Revenue near $50 million, down from $60 million a year earlier, continuing a gradual decline.

Management also said that AI‑influenced ARR had topped $5 billion by Q3, with AI‑first offerings surpassing Adobe’s year‑end target, underscoring the importance of Firefly and related AI services in driving subscription expansion. ^[17]

Guidance raised after Q3

On the back of that performance, Adobe raised its fiscal 2025 guidance, including: ^[18]

Q4 2025 (company guidance):
- Revenue: $6.075–$6.125 billion
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $5.35–$5.40
- Digital Media revenue: $4.53–$4.56 billion
- Digital Experience revenue: $1.495–$1.515 billion
Full‑year FY 2025 (company non‑GAAP guidance):
- Revenue: $23.65–$23.70 billion
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $20.80–$20.85

S&P Global’s Visible Alpha consensus, which is based largely on GAAP, points to full‑year revenue around $23.7 billionand EPS close to $16.5, implying a sizeable gap between GAAP and non‑GAAP earnings due to stock‑based compensation and intangible amortization. ^[19]

New Since Last Quarter: ChatGPT Integration and Semrush Acquisition

Adobe brings Photoshop, Express and Acrobat into ChatGPT

On the morning of the earnings day, Adobe announced a deep integration between ChatGPT and three flagship apps: Photoshop, Adobe Express and Acrobat. ^[20]

According to Reuters and Investing.com:

ChatGPT users can now perform common creative and document tasks — such as editing photos, designing graphics and summarizing PDFs — by invoking Adobe tools directly within the chat interface.
The apps are free to use inside ChatGPT on desktop, web and iOS, with Android support already live for Adobe Express and coming soon for Photoshop and Acrobat.
Users must register with Adobe, giving the company a way to onboard potential new subscribers from ChatGPT’s very large user base, which Investing.com reports at about 800 million weekly users. ^[21]

Strategically, the move helps Adobe plant its tools inside one of the world’s most widely used AI assistants, potentially boosting awareness of its creative ecosystem at minimal friction. The integration also leans on Adobe’s earlier work on conversational interfaces and its Model Context Protocol, which is designed to connect AI assistants to external tools and content. ^[22]

Semrush deal and the marketing cloud

In November, Adobe agreed to acquire SEO and marketing analytics platform Semrush for $12 per share in cash, valuing the company at roughly $1.9 billion. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. ^[23]

Analysts expect the acquisition to:

Strengthen Adobe’s Digital Experience business by layering Semrush’s search data and AI‑driven marketing intelligence into Adobe’s existing analytics and campaign tools.
Provide incremental revenue in FY 2026, with a relatively modest short‑term impact on FY 2025 results. ^[24]

Today’s call may offer more detail on integration plans, revenue synergies and how Adobe intends to position Semrush alongside Experience Cloud and its generative marketing offerings such as GenStudio.

Key Metrics to Watch in Today’s Results

Beyond the headline revenue and EPS, several line items are likely to drive the stock’s reaction:

1. Digital Media net new ARR

Commentary from Parameter and broker notes suggests traders are laser‑focused on net new Digital Media ARR — essentially, how much additional recurring revenue Adobe adds in Creative and Document Cloud this quarter. ^[25]

Forecasts range from roughly $571 million on the conservative side to more optimistic scenarios above $600 million. A figure near the top of that range would support the thesis that Firefly and AI‑powered features are generating new demand, not just defending existing seats.

2. AI monetization and attach rates

Investors will be listening for concrete data points around: ^[26]

How many customers are paying for AI credits or AI‑enhanced bundles
The revenue mix from AI‑related upsells in both Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud
Early monetization signals from GenStudio, Acrobat AI Assistant and Firefly across creative and marketing workflows

Clarity on whether AI is delivering incremental ARR — rather than just being included in existing subscriptions — will be a major narrative driver.

3. Digital Experience growth and pipeline

Experience Cloud has been growing high single to low double digits, but investors want to see: ^[27]

Continued double‑digit subscription growth
Strong demand for Adobe Experience Platform (AEP) and AI‑powered marketing tools
Evidence that cross‑cloud deals (combining Creative, Document and Experience) are expanding

Any slowdown in Digital Experience could revive concerns that enterprise customers are tightening budgets heading into 2026.

4. Guidance for FY 2026

Visible Alpha and broker models generally assume: ^[28]

High single‑digit to low double‑digit revenue growth in FY 2026
Mid‑40s non‑GAAP operating margins
Continued share repurchases

If management guides to ~10% or better revenue growth and stable margins, as some analysts hope, it could reassure investors that Adobe remains a steady compounder despite AI disruption. Conversely, softer guidance or signals of heavier AI‑related investment could weigh on the stock in the near term.

5. Macro backdrop and Fed “hawkish cut”

Today’s earnings hit just as the Federal Reserve delivers its latest rate decision, widely expected to include a modest rate cut but potentially cautious commentary on future easing. ^[29]

For a long‑duration growth name like Adobe, a dovish message plus a solid earnings beat could be a powerful combination. A more hawkish tone from the Fed, even alongside good company results, might blunt the upside reaction.

How ADBE Stock Looks Going Into Earnings

A few high‑level takeaways from recent market data and analyst research: ^[30]

Year‑to‑date performance: Adobe shares are down roughly 24–25% in 2025, underperforming many large‑cap tech and AI peers.
Valuation: Around 21× trailing EPS with mid‑teens forward EPS growth expectations, positioning Adobe as neither a bargain nor in bubble territory by large‑cap software standards.
Track record: Adobe has beaten both revenue and EPS estimates in nine of the last ten quarters, though the stock has sometimes traded down after results, reflecting high expectations and concerns about future growth.
Street stance: The majority of analysts still rate the stock Buy or Overweight, but several have cut price targets in the past few months, citing competitive AI pressures and more normalised growth.

Bottom Line

Going into today’s Q4 2025 earnings, Adobe sits at the crossroads of several major themes:

Core business strength: Last quarter delivered record revenue, double‑digit ARR growth in both Digital Media and Experience, and enough momentum for Adobe to raise its full‑year outlook. ^[31]
AI and platform strategy: Integration with ChatGPT and ongoing development of Firefly, Acrobat AI Assistant and GenStudio show Adobe is pushing hard to stay central to the AI‑driven content and marketing landscape. ^[32]
Valuation reset: The stock’s pullback in 2025 has reset expectations, but the options market still prices in a sizable one‑day swing, and investors remain sensitive to any sign of slowing growth. ^[33]

If Adobe can hit or slightly beat consensus on revenue and EPS, show healthy net new ARR, and lay out credible, AI‑driven growth guidance for 2026, today’s earnings could mark an important inflection point for ADBE shares. A miss on ARR or cautious commentary, especially in the shadow of a hawkish Fed, could keep the stock under pressure.

Either way, given the combination of record expected revenue, AI product launches and macro uncertainty, Adobe’s Q4 report is shaping up as one of the most closely watched tech earnings events of this season.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.