Adobe Stock (ADBE) on December 10, 2025: ChatGPT Integration, Q4 Earnings Preview and Analyst Forecasts

Date: December 10, 2025
Ticker: NASDAQ: ADBE

Key points

Adobe reports Q4 FY2025 earnings after today’s closing bell, with Wall Street expecting around $6.11 billion in revenue and $5.40 in adjusted EPS, its first-ever $6B+ quarter. ^[1]
Shares trade around $344 today, roughly 25–30% lower year to date and about 38% below their 52‑week high of $552.83, making Adobe one of 2025’s notable software underperformers despite solid growth. ^[2]
Adobe launched Photoshop, Express and Acrobat inside ChatGPT this morning, bringing its flagship tools to a claimed 800 million ChatGPT users and deepening its generative‑AI strategy. ^[3]
Analyst sentiment is broadly positive but divided: most firms rate ADBE a Buy with average 12‑month targets in the mid‑$450s, yet Wedbush has added Adobe to its list of potential “AI loser” stocks at risk in the next phase of the AI boom. ^[4]
Options and prediction markets are braced for a big move: options imply about a 7.6% swing on earnings, while Polymarket odds recently put the chance of an EPS beat at 91%. ^[5]

Adobe stock today: price and performance snapshot

As of early afternoon on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, Adobe stock trades around $344 per share, down a fraction on the day. ^[6] That leaves the company with a market capitalization of roughly $144 billion and places ADBE about 38% below its 52‑week high of $552.83. ^[7]

Despite double‑digit revenue growth, Adobe has materially lagged the broader market in 2025. Barron’s notes that ADBE is down about 23% this year, versus a roughly 16% gain for the S&P 500. ^[8] Other commentators, looking at slightly different cut‑off dates, peg the decline closer to 27% year to date. ^[9] Over a 12‑month horizon, Zacks estimates Adobe shares are down about 38%, while Alphabet and Microsoft have risen sharply over the same period. ^[10]

In other words, Adobe is entering earnings as a growth company trading like a bruised value stock, something many bullish analysts keep highlighting.

The big news today: Adobe apps come to ChatGPT

The headline move on December 10 is Adobe’s announcement that Photoshop, Adobe Express and Acrobat are now available directly inside ChatGPT. ^[11]

According to Adobe’s own newsroom and multiple tech outlets:

Users can invoke the tools simply by typing natural‑language prompts such as “Adobe Photoshop, brighten this image and blur the background” inside ChatGPT. ^[12]
The integration targets ChatGPT’s reported 800 million users, who can now perform core photo editing, graphic design and PDF tasks without leaving the chat interface. ^[13]
Photoshop in ChatGPT supports common adjustments and effects, Express handles quick social and marketing designs, and Acrobat covers editing, merging, compressing and converting PDFs. ^[14]
The apps offer a streamlined subset of desktop functionality, with the option to send projects back into full Creative Cloud tools for deeper work. ^[15]

This launch builds on Adobe’s broader push into “agentic AI” and conversational workflows, including its earlier Acrobat Studio product that lets users query and transform PDFs with AI. ^[16]

From an investor’s perspective, the ChatGPT integration matters for three reasons:

Top‑of‑funnel expansion: It exposes Adobe’s ecosystem to hundreds of millions of people who may never have installed Creative Cloud, especially casual creators and small businesses. ^[17]
AI data and engagement: Every edit and workflow inside these tools feeds back into Adobe’s data flywheel, reinforcing what some bulls call its “creative data moat” in AI. ^[18]
Monetization proof point: Barron’s and others have emphasized that investors want hard evidence that generative AI is adding revenue, not just features. Today’s launch gives management a fresh narrative to lean on in the earnings call. ^[19]

Q4 FY2025 earnings preview: chasing a $6B+ quarter

Adobe reports fiscal Q4 2025 and full‑year results after the market close today, followed by a 2 p.m. Pacific earnings call. ^[20]

Street expectations

Across FactSet, TipRanks and other aggregators, consensus estimates cluster around: ^[21]

Revenue: ≈ $6.11 billion, up roughly 9–10% year over year (and the first quarter above $6B if delivered).
Non‑GAAP EPS: ≈ $5.40, up around 12–13% from last year’s $4.81.

Adobe’s own guidance for Q4 calls for: ^[22]

Total revenue:$6.075–$6.125 billion
Digital Media revenue:$4.53–$4.56 billion
Digital Experience revenue:$1.495–$1.515 billion, with subscription revenue of $1.395–$1.41 billion

Zacks’ segment‑level consensus implies high‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit growth in both Digital Media and Digital Experience, with subscription revenue expected to grow around 10% year on year. ^[23]

Some data providers list slightly lower EPS expectations (around $4.99) based on different coverage universes, but the $5.40 figure remains the dominant benchmark used in most previews. ^[24]

Current fundamentals

Trefis and other fundamental models highlight that over the last twelve months Adobe has generated roughly: ^[25]

$23–23.2 billion in revenue
$8.4 billion in operating profit
$7.0 billion in net income

That implies strong operating margins and substantial free cash flow for a business still growing revenue at around 10% annually, following FY2024 revenue of $21.51 billion. ^[26]

At today’s price near $344, StockAnalysis shows a forward P/E around 15 and a trailing P/E of about 21, while 12‑month analyst targets on that platform average $453.48, or roughly 32% upside. ^[27]

AI metrics in focus

Adobe has been steadily quantifying its AI momentum:

In Q3 2025 it reported $5 billion in “AI‑influenced” annual recurring revenue (ARR) across its portfolio, underlining how widely Firefly and other AI features have spread inside Creative and Experience Cloud. ^[28]
The Wall Street Journal recently noted that AI‑linked ARR exceeded $250 million in Q3 alone, yet the stock is still down roughly 23% this year. ^[29]
A separate Motley Fool piece says Adobe’s AI‑first products already surpassed their full‑year 2025 revenue target by the end of Q3, reinforcing the idea that monetization is starting to catch up to the hype. ^[30]

Investors will be laser‑focused on net new Digital Media ARR, where some forecasts center around the mid‑$500 million range, with bulls hoping for a print north of $600 million. ^[31]

What Wall Street is saying about Adobe today

Consensus: still a Buy, with sizable upside

TipRanks’ latest pre‑earnings roundup describes Adobe as “Moderate Buy”, based on 18 Buys and 7 Holds in the last three months, with an average price target of about $465.67—roughly 37% above recent levels. ^[32]

In the same report:

Options data imply about a 7.58% one‑day move in either direction after earnings.
TD Cowen’s J. Derrick Wood maintains a Hold with a $420 target, expecting a small beat and “in‑line” guidance. ^[33]
Barclays analyst Saket Kalia trims his target from $465 to $415 but keeps an Overweight rating, expecting solid net‑new Digital Media ARR and potential 10%+ ARR growth in FY2026. ^[34]

Barron’s similarly notes that Stifel’s J. Parker Lane has cut his Adobe target from $480 to $450 while reiterating a Buy, underscoring that the stock’s re‑rating has already been severe. ^[35]

From a quantitative angle, Zacks currently assigns Adobe a Rank #2 (Buy), arguing that Q4 results should benefit from strong demand for AI‑infused offerings like Creative Cloud Pro, Firefly and Acrobat AI Assistant. ^[36]

Retail and prediction‑market sentiment

A detailed look from 24/7 Wall St. shows that: ^[37]

Retail sentiment scores for ADBE on social platforms have been running in the 71–73 range in recent weeks.
Polymarket odds price a 91% probability that Adobe beats EPS estimates on December 10, with consensus again anchored around $5.40 in non‑GAAP EPS.
Analysts cited there list 24 Buy/Strong Buy ratings versus just 3 Sells, with an average price target of around $450, implying mid‑30s upside from early‑December prices.

The same piece points out that Adobe still boasts 30% profit margins, a return on equity near 53% and about 11% expected earnings growth, yet trades at a forward P/E in the mid‑teens and a PEG ratio under 1.0, metrics many would associate with a mature industrial rather than an AI‑exposed software leader. ^[38]

The skeptics: “AI losers” and an “incredibly frustrating stock”

Not all commentary is flattering:

A recent Wedbush Securities report highlighted a dozen potential “AI loser” stocks—companies that could be structurally disadvantaged by the AI transition. Adobe appears on that list alongside names like Intel, DocuSign and Workday, with concerns that AI could undercut traditional SaaS models and empower cheaper competitors. ^[39]
MarketWatch describes Adobe as an “incredibly frustrating stock” that looks cheap and is improving AI monetization, yet may face a long road to repairing investor sentiment. ^[40]
Benzinga’s technical analysis article, “Why Adobe’s Downtrend Isn’t Something You Can ‘Edit’ Away,” argues that the stock remains in a long‑running downtrend on weekly charts, despite the approaching earnings catalyst. ^[41]

Separately, historical data compiled by Trefis show that only about 25% of Adobe’s earnings days over the last five years produced a positive next‑day return, with negative reactions skewing larger (median −6.3%) than the positive ones (median +3.0%). ^[42] That track record is one reason short‑term traders are so cautious heading into tonight’s report.

Strategy moves: Semrush deal, Google tie‑up and the AI “data moat”

Beyond earnings and today’s ChatGPT launch, several strategic initiatives shape Adobe’s medium‑term story.

Semrush acquisition

In November, Adobe agreed to acquire Semrush (SEMR) for $12 per share in cash, valuing the SEO and marketing‑analytics firm at around $1.9 billion. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending approvals. ^[43]

TipRanks and Barron’s both frame this move as a way to deepen Adobe’s Digital Experience stack, giving it richer SEO, content‑marketing and performance‑measurement capabilities that pair naturally with its creative and analytics tools. ^[44]

Google Cloud partnership

Adobe has also expanded its partnership with Google Cloud, bringing models like Gemini, Veo and Imagen into Firefly, Photoshop and Premiere and allowing enterprises to customize Adobe’s generative AI on Vertex AI via Firefly Foundry. ^[45] This plays directly into the enterprise AI platform race and positions Adobe as an “AI hub” integrating multiple model providers.

The “data moat” thesis

A widely circulated Reddit‑driven thesis, amplified by 24/7 Wall St., argues that Adobe’s proprietary creative‑workflow data—every edit in Photoshop, every layout change, every collaborative Figma session—is a unique AI training asset that competitors cannot scrape or replicate. ^[46]

That idea dovetails with Adobe’s own marketing around Firefly, where case studies (for example with IBM) claim up to 80% cost reductions and dramatically faster ideation cycles when teams adopt its generative tools. ^[47]

If this data advantage translates into meaningfully better AI features and stickier workflows, bulls believe it could justify today’s investments and help Adobe defend pricing power even as AI makes individual users more productive.

Why the stock is down anyway: the bear case in brief

So why is a high‑margin, cash‑generative, AI‑infused software leader trading nearer its multi‑year lows?

Across Barron’s, MarketWatch, Nasdaq/Motley Fool and Zacks commentary, several recurring concerns emerge: ^[48]

AI may shrink the customer base. If one designer empowered by generative AI can do the work of several, some investors fear that overall seat counts could fall, pressuring subscription growth even as individual productivity soars.
Competition is intensifying. Adobe’s AI business is still small compared with giants like Microsoft and Alphabet, whose platforms embed AI deeply across productivity, cloud and advertising. ^[49]
Growth is decelerating. While 10% revenue growth is solid, it’s a step down from the hyper‑growth era that investors once priced in, especially when peers in AI infrastructure are growing faster. ^[50]
Mixed technical and sentiment signals. Articles describe Adobe as a “vast underperformer” into earnings, with some technical analysts warning that its downtrend may not be finished even after a sharp drawdown. ^[51]
Sector rotation. Software broadly has lagged the semiconductor‑driven AI trade, and Wedbush’s “AI loser” list has further spotlighted fears that some application vendors may be left behind in the next phase of the boom. ^[52]

This tension—strong fundamentals vs. skeptical narrative—is exactly what tonight’s earnings call will test.

What to watch in tonight’s earnings and guidance

Based on the latest previews, here are the metrics and themes most likely to drive ADBE’s next move:

Headline numbers vs. consensus
- Revenue near or above $6.11B and EPS at or above $5.40 will be the first hurdle. Even a small miss could sting, given how many traders are positioned for a beat. ^[53]
Digital Media net new ARR
- Anything near the high end of expectations (north of $600M) would support the case that AI features are driving incremental subscriptions rather than merely protecting existing ones. ^[54]
AI monetization details
- Investors will look for concrete updates on AI‑influenced ARR, uptake of AI‑first products, and early engagement data from the ChatGPT integration. ^[55]
FY2026 outlook
- Baird’s Rob Oliver and others say the market is intensely focused on whether Adobe guides to around 10% total ARR growth for FY2026 and how much of that is AI‑driven. ^[56]
Semrush and M&A synergies
- Any color on how Semrush will be integrated into Adobe Experience Cloud—and what revenue lift is expected for 2026—could shape the long‑term growth narrative. ^[57]
Capital allocation and buybacks
- Management has already signaled it views the stock as undervalued, with Benzinga noting roughly 8 million shares repurchased in Q3; investors will want to see if that pace is maintained. ^[58]

Given the combination of an earnings release and a same‑day Federal Reserve decision, several commentators warn that volatility could be amplified, even if results are decent. ^[59]

Bottom line: Adobe at an inflection point

On December 10, 2025, Adobe sits at a crossroads:

The company is on the cusp of its first $6B+ quarter, with strong margins, robust free cash flow, and a growing portfolio of AI‑driven products. ^[60]
Its flagship tools just landed inside ChatGPT, dramatically expanding reach and potentially strengthening its already powerful data and distribution advantages in creative software. ^[61]
Yet the stock trades far below its highs, burdened by worries that AI could erode its moat rather than reinforce it.

Whether Adobe’s earnings and guidance tonight validate the bull case of a misunderstood, AI‑levered compounder or confirm the bear view of a maturing franchise facing structural pressure will likely determine where ADBE trades into 2026.

For investors, this is a high‑risk, high‑volatility setup. Short‑term price swings around earnings can be extreme, and even accurate fundamental analysis doesn’t guarantee favorable timing. Anyone considering Adobe stock should weigh their risk tolerance, investment horizon and diversification, and may want to consult a qualified financial adviser before making decisions.