Adobe Stock After Hours: What December 9 Signals Before Today’s Q4 2025 Earnings (NASDAQ: ADBE)

On Tuesday, December 9, 2025, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) quietly set the stage for one of the most important earnings days of the year—for both the stock and the broader AI trade. The shares closed higher, options and prediction markets are bracing for a sharp move, and Wall Street is sharply divided on whether Adobe is an “AI laggard,” an “AI loser,” or one of the most undervalued software names in the market. ^[1]

With Adobe scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2025 results after the closing bell on Wednesday, December 10, and the Federal Reserve announcing a key rate decision the same day, investors heading into the December 10 U.S. open need to know exactly what is already priced in—and what could still surprise. ^[2]

How Adobe Stock Traded on December 9, 2025

Adobe finished Tuesday’s regular session at $344.32, up 1.53% on the day. The stock traded between $338.58 and $347.77 with volume of about 4.16 million shares, according to historical data from Investing.com. ^[3]

That move extended a steady rebound from late November: shares had been trading near $322–$323 at the start of December and around $336 as of December 3, when retail sentiment first turned meaningfully bullish. ^[4] Forbes separately noted that Adobe’s stock has risen roughly 10% leading into the Q4 report, underlining the strength of the recent bounce. ^[5]

However, the recovery comes after a bruising year. Zacks and MarketWatch both highlight that Adobe shares are still down roughly the mid‑30% range over the past 12 months, making it one of 2025’s notable underperformers in large‑cap software and AI. ^[6]

In after‑hours trading on December 9, quotes hovered just above the regular-session close, with modest additional gains as traders continued to position for Wednesday’s event-heavy session. Real‑time feeds show after‑hours prices around the mid‑$345 area, only fractionally above the official close—suggesting cautious optimism but no panic buying. ^[7]

When Adobe Reports and Why Today’s Open Matters

Adobe’s Q4 and full‑year FY2025 earnings call is scheduled for Wednesday, December 10, 2025, at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern), according to the company’s investor relations calendar. ^[8]

Historically, Adobe releases its earnings press release shortly after the U.S. market close and then hosts the call. That means:

Before the opening bell on December 10, traders will be positioning based on expectations, not results.
During Wednesday’s session, the stock will trade as a pure “anticipation play” into the close.
After the close, both the Fed decision and Adobe’s actual Q4 numbers and FY2026 guidance could hit within hours of each other, potentially amplifying volatility across growth and AI‑exposed names. ^[9]

Street Forecasts: What Wall Street Expects from Adobe’s Q4 2025

Consensus numbers going into the print are tight and well‑telegraphed:

Adjusted EPS (non‑GAAP): about $5.40 per share, up roughly 12–13% year over year. ^[10]
Revenue: around $6.11 billion, which would be Adobe’s first ever $6 billion+ quarter. ^[11]

These expectations line up with Adobe’s own Q4 2025 guidance, issued with its Q3 earnings in September, when management projected: ^[12]

Q4 revenue:$6.075–$6.125 billion
GAAP EPS:$4.27–$4.32
A modest full‑year revenue raise to $23.65–$23.70 billion

Analysts will also be laser‑focused on subscription metrics, particularly Digital Media net new annualized recurring revenue (NN DM ARR), where Barclays has modeled $571 million for Q4, with a bullish scenario in the $600–610 million range. ^[13]

Insider‑focused research suggests total company ARR could end FY2025 around $25.8 billion, roughly 11.5% year‑over‑year growth, slightly above the company’s original ARR growth goal of about 11%. ^[14]

Zacks notes that Adobe has beaten consensus EPS in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of roughly 2.5%, which is one reason many investors are quietly expecting at least a small beat again this quarter. ^[15]

Analyst Snapshot: Targets Cluster Around $415–$450

Despite the share price slump, the sell‑side remains broadly constructive:

Stifel (J. Parker Lane): Buy rating, price target cut from $480 to $450, citing a clearer and more credible AI strategy but lingering uncertainty about how quickly sentiment can turn. ^[16]
Barclays (Saket Kalia): Overweight, target reduced from $465 to $415 ahead of earnings, still positive on ARR momentum and the potential uplift from the Semrush acquisition, but cautious until there is more visibility on guidance. ^[17]
TD Cowen (J. Derrick Wood): Hold with a $420 target, expecting a “marginal beat” and in‑line guidance, and noting that while AI demand is ramping, competition is intense and growth is likely to slow somewhat into 2026. ^[18]
Citi: Neutral rating with a lower $366 target, reflecting higher operating expenses and margin pressure from increased investment, even as the firm also expects a slight Q4 beat. ^[19]

According to TipRanks aggregation, Wall Street’s overall stance is a “Moderate Buy”, based on 17 Buy, 7 Hold, and 2 Sell ratings in the last three months. The average price target sits near $466.86, implying around 35% upside from recent levels. ^[20]

AI Strategy Pivot: From Closed Firefly to “AI Hub”

One of the most important narratives behind Adobe into this earnings print is its AI strategy reset.

TipRanks and Stifel describe how Adobe has shifted from pitching its Firefly models as a stand‑alone walled garden to positioning Creative Cloud as an open “AI hub”, where users can tap Adobe Firefly, ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Microsoft Copilot inside the same workflow. ^[21]

According to Stifel, investors had previously been unclear on: ^[22]

How Firefly compared to rival AI tools
How Adobe would actually monetize generative AI
Whether AI might shrink the number of paid Creative Cloud seats over time

After Adobe’s MAX 2025 investor session, Stifel argues that management has finally articulated a more convincing plan:

Adobe wants to be the “Switzerland” of creative AI, the neutral platform where creators can plug in multiple AI engines. ^[23]
Rather than fighting every AI startup, Adobe is leaning into its role as the workflow layer with deep integration, pro‑grade tools, and enterprise‑ready compliance.

Stifel still trimmed its target, but believes the company is in the early stages of a “critical and successful AI‑induced strategy pivot”—a view that clashes sharply with some of the more bearish commentary on the Street. ^[24]

Semrush Deal: Strengthening the Digital Experience Story

On November 19, Adobe announced an agreement to acquire Semrush (SEMR) for $12 per share in cash, valuing the SEO and marketing analytics firm at roughly $1.9 billion. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. ^[25]

Analysts see several implications:

The acquisition should deepen Adobe’s digital experience and marketing data capabilities, particularly around search visibility and AI‑driven content optimization. ^[26]
Insider Monkey notes Barclays expects Semrush to add 1–2 percentage points of FY2026 revenue growth once integrated, likely neutral to slightly positive for EPS. ^[27]
Stifel’s earlier bullish stance on Adobe highlighted Semrush as a key strategic pillar in building out AI engine optimization (AEO)—a future growth area as consumers rely more on AI‑powered search and recommendations. ^[28]

For investors heading into December 10, the key question is how much detail Adobe will provide on integration plans, cross‑sell opportunities, and expected financial contribution from Semrush in FY2026 guidance.

Bulls vs Bears: Is Adobe an AI Laggard, an AI Loser, or an Undervalued Winner?

The narrative around Adobe has become unusually polarized—especially in the last 24 hours.

The Bearish View: “AI Loser” and Sentiment Overhang

A recent Wedbush‑linked analysis, highlighted by MarketWatch, groups Adobe among a dozen potential “AI loser” stocks—names that risk being left behind in the next phase of the AI boom. ^[29]

For Adobe, the criticism centers on:

A subscription‑first pricing model that could be undercut by cheaper, usage‑based AI tools
Concerns that Firefly’s monetization has been slower than hoped, giving rivals time to capture budget and mindshare ^[30]
The risk that freelance creatives and smaller agencies migrate to lower‑cost AI‑centric platforms if Adobe cannot clearly justify its premium pricing

MarketWatch’s “incredibly frustrating stock” piece, published just after Tuesday’s closing bell, underscores how investors have watched a high‑quality business deliver solid numbers while the stock fell around 37% over the past year, with no obvious catalyst yet to re‑rate the multiple. Analysts in that story say they will be heavily focused on fiscal 2026 ARR guidance—ideally around 10% growth or better—to determine whether sentiment can turn. ^[31]

The Bullish View: Data Moat, AI Upside and Deep Value

On the other side, 24/7 Wall St. argues that retail traders have grown convincingly bullish on Adobe into this print: ^[32]

Shares were recently trading near $336, and “sentiment scores” on social platforms have held in the low‑70s (on a 0–100 scale).
Prediction market Polymarket is pricing in roughly a 91% probability that Adobe beats earnings expectations on December 10.
The bullish thesis centers on Adobe’s “unscrapable data moat”—a massive trove of proprietary creative‑workflow data and Adobe Analytics e‑commerce data that competitors cannot simply scrape from the open web.

That same piece highlights record U.S. Black Friday sales of $11.8 billion, up 9.1% year‑over‑year, as tracked by Adobe Analytics, reinforcing the company’s unique vantage point in online commerce. ^[33]

Meanwhile, Zacks has grouped Adobe among “AI laggards” with strong 2026 growth potential, alongside names like Marvell, Atlassian, Workday and Snap—stocks that have lagged the headline AI leaders but still feature rising earnings estimates and solid top‑line forecasts. ^[34]

Morningstar, in a separate analysis, has gone as far as calling Adobe an “underdog AI stock” with as much as 70% upside, arguing that the company’s revenue surprises, margin trajectory and still‑early AI monetization efforts are not reflected in today’s price. ^[35]

Options and Prediction Markets: Bracing for a Big Move

Options traders are expecting fireworks after the print—even if the implied move is slightly below recent history.

TipRanks’ options analytics show the market is pricing in roughly a 7.58% move in either direction following Q4 results, compared with an average 8.3% absolute post‑earnings move over the past four quarters. ^[36]

At the same time:

Consensus EPS expectations are tightly clustered at $5.40, revenue at about $6.11 billion. ^[37]
Prediction markets (Polymarket) put the probability of an earnings beat above 90%, according to 24/7 Wall St. ^[38]

Put together, that implies asymmetric sentiment: investors broadly expect a beat, but the implied move is not extreme. Any miss or weak guidance could therefore generate an outsized downside reaction, while a clean “beat and raise” might still struggle if the market has already priced in good news.

Macro Backdrop: The Fed Could Supercharge the Reaction

All of this is happening against the backdrop of a crucial Federal Reserve meeting.

The Fed’s December 9–10, 2025 FOMC meeting is widely watched as markets price in a likely 25‑basis‑point rate cut, though officials’ commentary on the 2026 path for rates is what really matters for long‑duration growth stocks. ^[39]

Key points from recent coverage:

The 10‑year Treasury yield has been ticking higher again, reflecting some nervousness about how aggressive the Fed can be on cuts if inflation remains sticky. ^[40]
The S&P 500 is near record highs, with investors hoping for a year‑end “Santa rally” that could be derailed by a surprisingly hawkish tone. ^[41]
Adobe is specifically named, alongside Oracle, Broadcom and Costco, as one of the headline earnings events investors are watching in Fed‑focused previews this week. ^[42]

For Adobe, that means multiple layers of risk and opportunity:

A dovish Fed and solid earnings/guidance could combine into a powerful relief rally.
A hawkish Fed tone—or even just a “higher for longer” message—could blunt the impact of good company‑level news.

Five Things to Watch Before the Opening Bell on December 10

Heading into today’s U.S. session, here are five key questions serious Adobe watchers should be asking:

1. Will Q4 Beat the $5.40 EPS / $6.11B Revenue “Line in the Sand”?

Consensus is unusually tight. Any miss on either metric—or even just in‑line results paired with soft commentary—could disappoint a market that prediction markets say is heavily leaning toward a beat. ^[43]

2. How Strong Is Digital Media ARR and Creative Cloud Demand?

Barclays’ base case of $571M NN Digital Media ARR versus a $600–610M upside scenario will be closely scrutinized, along with any commentary on Creative Cloud seat growth, churn and pricing power in the face of cheaper AI alternatives. ^[44]

3. What Does Fiscal 2026 ARR and Revenue Guidance Look Like?

Many analysts—and especially the MarketWatch skeptics—are looking for around 10% ARR growth in the fiscal 2026 outlook. Anything notably below that could reinforce the “AI loser” narrative; anything above might help trigger a re‑rating. ^[45]

4. How Convincing Is the AI Monetization and Data‑Moat Story?

Investors will want concrete numbers or KPIs around:

Firefly and generative AI attach rates
Incremental ARR or revenue obviously tied to AI offerings
Any early revenue contribution from the Semrush deal, and how Adobe plans to leverage its closed‑loop creative and analytics data to keep competitors at bay. ^[46]

5. Does Management Directly Address the “AI Laggard / AI Loser” Label?

With Zacks calling Adobe an AI laggard with upside potential and Wedbush reportedly flagging it as a possible AI loser, investors will be listening carefully for how directly management counters concerns about: ^[47]

Competitive pressure from cheaper AI‑native tools
The risk of shrinking seat counts as automation improves
Whether Firefly and related offerings can become material growth drivers rather than just defensive features

Bottom Line: Cautious Optimism, High Stakes

After Tuesday’s modest 1.53% gain, Adobe heads into Wednesday’s session with: ^[48]

A rebounding share price still well below last year’s highs
Consensus forecasts that leave little room for error
A sharply split narrative—undervalued AI underdog vs. at‑risk subscription dinosaur
A powerful macro catalyst (the Fed) hitting the tape almost simultaneously with its Q4 report

For traders, the setup is straightforward: the options market is telling you to expect a large move, and prediction markets think that move is more likely up than down—but sentiment is fragile enough that a single cautious guidance line could flip the script. ^[49]

For long‑term investors watching from the sidelines before the open, the most important thing may not be Wednesday’s headline price reaction at all, but what Adobe reveals about its 2026 AI and ARR trajectory, the integration of Semrush, and its ability to turn its unique data moat into durable, visible growth.