New York, Jan 16, 2026, 11:57 AM EST — Regular session
- Adobe shares down about 2% in midday trading, underperforming a firmer broader market
- Investors stay focused on whether generative AI shifts software pricing power
- Next major catalyst: Adobe’s fiscal first-quarter earnings call on March 12
Adobe shares fell about 2% to around $298 in midday trading on Friday, extending a choppy week for the software maker as investors weighed fresh doubts about how fast it can turn its AI push into durable growth.
The stock move matters because Adobe has become a test case for a wider question hanging over big software: whether generative AI makes creation tools cheaper and more interchangeable, and whether customers will still pay premium subscription prices for the old stack.
Traders have also been using Adobe as a proxy for “show me” software — companies that talk up AI features but face pressure to prove they can sell them without giving up margins or cutting prices.
That debate sharpened this week after Oppenheimer downgraded Adobe, warning that its seat-based model — charging per user — could come under strain if customers push toward usage-based pricing, which charges by consumption. 1
Competition has become part of the tape, too. Apple rolled out details of its Creator Studio subscription, a cheaper bundle of creative apps that investors see as another angle of attack on Adobe’s Creative Cloud franchise. 2
Friday’s drop came even as the broader market steadied, led by a rally in chipmakers tied to AI spending, leaving some software names behind. 3
Still, the downside case is not the only one on desks. William Blair analyst Arjun Bhatia argued the software selloff “seems overdone,” saying newer AI tools are unlikely to fully replace complex systems businesses rely on. 4
The risk for Adobe is that “good enough” creative tools keep improving faster than Adobe can defend pricing, forcing more discounting and slowing growth in its digital media business even as it spends heavily on AI.
The next clear catalyst is March 12, when Adobe is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter results and hold its earnings call. Investors will be listening for concrete AI monetization signals and any shift in demand among small businesses and creators. 5
