NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 3:01 p.m. ET — Market closed Nasdaq
Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) heads into the final trading days of 2025 with investors still debating the same question that has defined much of the year for the software giant: is Adobe’s AI transition (and its ability to monetize it) a durable catalyst—or a pressure point in a rapidly changing competitive landscape?
With U.S. equities closed for the weekend, Adobe stock’s last regular-session print remains Friday’s close at $353.80, up 0.23% on the day, with the last after-hours quote around $353.40. StockAnalysis
Adobe stock price check: where ADBE stands heading into Monday
Friday’s close leaves ADBE in the middle of a wide one-year range, with $311.59–$465.70 cited as the 52-week band. At current levels, the market is valuing Adobe at roughly $148B in market cap, with a trailing P/E around 21 and a forward P/E near 15 (per aggregated market data). StockAnalysis
In the last two weeks, Adobe has largely chopped sideways, with recent closes clustering in the mid-$350s—and notable pivots around the $344–$360 zone based on December’s daily highs and lows. StockAnalysis
Because markets are closed, the next meaningful price discovery will come during Nasdaq extended-hours trading (pre-market begins as early as 4:00 a.m. ET) and then the regular session at 9:30 a.m. ET Monday. Nasdaq
Fresh Adobe stock headlines in the last 24–48 hours
Company-specific news flow over the weekend has been lighter than a typical weekday, with the most visible ADBE-related items skewing toward institutional positioning and investor commentary rather than new corporate announcements.
1) Institutional holders disclosed sizable Q3 position reductions
Two separate MarketBeat write-ups on SEC filings highlighted notable stake cuts by institutional managers:
- Carnegie Investment Counsel reported trimming its Adobe position by 85.5% in Q3, according to the outlet’s summary of the filing. MarketBeat
- Mogy Joel R Investment Counsel Inc. reported reducing its Adobe stake by 29.2% in Q3, also per MarketBeat’s summary. MarketBeat
For investors, the key context is that 13F filings are backward-looking (Q3 positioning) and can reflect portfolio rebalancing, mandate changes, or risk management—not necessarily a real-time view on Adobe’s next-quarter prospects. Still, big changes in institutional ownership often attract attention because they can shape sentiment around “who’s holding” into year-end.
2) Adobe included in a “digital media stocks to watch” weekend roundup
MarketBeat published a broader sector-oriented list of “Digital Media” names with high dollar trading volume, and included Adobe (ADBE) in that group. MarketBeat
3) A bullish long-form view: “accumulating” shares post-earnings
A Seeking Alpha contributor argued that Adobe’s recent results and AI momentum support accumulating shares, pointing to AI-linked metrics (including AI-first ARR mix and stronger generative usage) and describing valuations as depressed relative to history. Seeking Alpha
That thesis is explicitly opinion (and disclosed as such by the author), but it reflects a real split in the market: fundamentals vs. narrative risk.
4) A competitive bear case shows up indirectly—via Figma
A Motley Fool weekend piece focused on other growth names but flagged a familiar pressure point for Adobe: Figma could keep pulling developers away. The Motley Fool
Even when Adobe isn’t the headline, that competitive framing matters for ADBE because the stock’s multiple has been sensitive to any signal that AI tools (and faster-moving rivals) could weaken Adobe’s pricing power or workflow “lock-in.”
Wall Street forecasts and analyst targets: what the Street is modeling now
Across widely-followed consensus aggregations, Adobe’s forward outlook remains constructive on paper, but uneven in conviction depending on which analyst set and timeframe you reference.
Consensus targets cluster in the low-$400s—with a wide range
One widely used analyst aggregation lists an average target price around $428.95 (about +21% upside from current levels), with targets spanning roughly $280 to $540, and a consensus rating described as “Buy.” StockAnalysis
Meanwhile, MarketBeat’s aggregation (used in multiple recent weekend ADBE posts) framed Street consensus as “Hold” with an average target price around $417.93—close to the same zone, but with a more cautious label. MarketBeat
Named analyst calls investors are still digesting
While not all of these are from the last 48 hours, they remain highly relevant because they shaped December positioning and the post-earnings narrative:
- KeyBanc’s Jackson Ader downgraded Adobe to Underweight and set a $310 target, arguing the valuation discount is justified by factors including “AI competitive threats” (per Investing.com’s summary of the note). Investing
- Jefferies’ Brent Thill lowered Jefferies’ target to $500 from $590 while keeping a Buy rating, pointing to margin expectations and AI investment as a near-term drag (per TheFly via TipRanks). TipRanks
- Citi’s Tyler Radke raised Citi’s target to $387 from $366 and kept a Neutral rating, describing FY2026 outlook as “mixed” after the Q4 report (per TheFly via TipRanks). TipRanks
This mix helps explain why Adobe can post solid numbers, yet still struggle to sustain upside: analysts aren’t arguing about whether Adobe is profitable—many are arguing about the slope of growth and the durability of its moat in an AI-first market.
The fundamental backdrop: earnings, AI adoption, and FY2026 guidance
The biggest “anchor” for Adobe stock right now remains what management laid out around earnings—and how quickly AI features translate into durable recurring revenue.
Reuters: AI demand and FY2026 outlook above estimates
In Adobe’s latest results cycle, Reuters reported that Adobe forecast fiscal 2026 revenue and profit above Wall Street expectations, reflecting demand for its design tools and rising monetization of AI offerings. Reuters also reported Adobe’s annual revenue outlook of $25.90B–$26.10B and adjusted EPS outlook of $23.30–$23.50, alongside Q4 revenue of $6.19B versus estimates of $6.11B. Reuters
Reuters also quoted Adobe CFO Dan Durn pointing to accelerating AI adoption, including that monthly active users for Adobe’s freemium offerings increased 35% year-over-year to over 70 million. Reuters
What investors are still watching: AI monetization mechanics
The market’s ongoing focus is less about whether Adobe has AI features (it does) and more about whether those features:
- increase net-new ARR without heavy discounting,
- protect pricing in Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, and
- defend Adobe’s position against fast-moving rivals that can build AI-native workflows from scratch.
That’s why the most bearish notes often emphasize competitive threat and growth deceleration, while the more bullish notes emphasize Adobe’s distribution, installed base, and the practicality of integrating AI into existing workflows.
If you’re watching ADBE for Monday: what matters before the next session
With stocks closed, investors’ “prep work” is mostly about (1) catalysts, (2) macro tape, and (3) where Adobe could gap if risk appetite shifts.
1) Holiday-week macro calendar could drive tech sentiment
This is a holiday-shortened week, with markets closed for New Year’s Day (Thursday), and several market-moving data points still on the calendar. Investopedia’s weekly preview highlighted pending home sales (Monday), FOMC meeting minutes (Tuesday), and weekly jobless claims (Wednesday), noting no major corporate earnings scheduled for the week. Investopedia
For Adobe—and software broadly—rate expectations matter because long-duration growth stocks can reprice quickly when the market shifts its view on the Fed path.
2) Next major Adobe catalyst: Q1 FY2026 earnings date is on the calendar
Adobe’s investor relations site lists the next earnings call as Thursday, March 12, 2026 (2:00 p.m. Pacific Time). Adobe
That’s the next major “hard catalyst” where management can update ARR trends and AI monetization signals.
3) ADBE technical context investors are likely watching
Based on recent daily ranges:
- The mid-$340s have acted as a notable area of demand in December (a recent low near $343.88). StockAnalysis
- The upper-$350s to ~$360 zone has capped upside in recent sessions (recent highs around $359–$360). StockAnalysis
If Monday opens with a risk-on tone, traders often look for a reclaim of that upper band; if macro headlines hit tech sentiment, the conversation quickly returns to whether the mid-$340s can hold.
The takeaway for Adobe stock investors heading into the next open
Adobe stock enters Monday’s session with:
- a stable end-of-week price near $354, StockAnalysis
- mixed—but directionally higher—Street targets centered around the low $400s, StockAnalysis
- a market still split between “Adobe as an AI monetization winner” and “Adobe as a mature SaaS name facing AI-era disruption risk,” Reuters
- and a near-term tape likely driven by macro releases and year-end positioning rather than Adobe-specific headlines. Investopedia
In practical terms: when markets reopen, ADBE’s next move may be less about what happened over the weekend—and more about whether the early-week macro tape supports a continued year-end bid in large-cap tech, allowing investors to refocus on Adobe’s FY2026 guidance and AI adoption trajectory. Reuters
