New York, Feb 12, 2026, 14:03 (EST) — Regular session
- Adobe shares slipped roughly 1.4% in afternoon trading, joining another downturn in software stocks.
- AI disruption risk is in the mix as investors watch rate expectations, with Friday’s U.S. inflation data looming.
- Adobe’s next big catalyst: its earnings call set for March 12.
Adobe Inc (ADBE) slipped 1.4% to $253.66 as of 1:48 p.m. EST on Thursday. Shares moved in a range from $251.23 up to $261.75.
This matters to investors, who’ve grown cautious on software stocks. AI disruption worries are swirling, plus the outlook on U.S. rates later this year keeps shifting.
Software names dragged the market lower Thursday, with the S&P 500 software and services index tumbling roughly 2.7% as fresh Big Tech earnings fanned worries over surging AI-related capex. Jobless claims for the week slipped, but not as much as analysts had penciled in, sharpening the focus on Friday’s January Consumer Price Index — the next major inflation signal. Traders bumped up the probability the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged through June to nearly 40%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. “We see this as a ‘prove it’ year for AI. We need to start seeing some return on investments,” said Jack Herr, primary investment analyst at GuideStone Funds. 1
This year’s AI news has whipped software stocks around, with Anthropic’s push to roll out plug-ins for its Claude Cowork agent sparking a wave of selling. The S&P 500 software and services index is off roughly 15% since late January, as of Wednesday. “You’ve clearly seen that breakdown in terms of the monolithic AI trade,” said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Over at Truist Advisory Services, chief investment officer Keith Lerner noted that while earnings remain solid, it’s “hard for companies to come out and disprove the narrative.” 2
Deal activity is feeling the sting from the sector’s turmoil—a reset that’s been tough to ignore. The software and services index remains roughly 25% below its October 28 peak, with valuations swinging too fast for buyers or sellers to confidently fix a price, according to bankers. “Investors have been trading on fear,” said Wally Cheng, Morgan Stanley’s global tech M&A chief. Jefferies’ Ron Eliasek described the current multiple compression as “not sustainable.” 3
Adobe shares slid 2.84% Wednesday to finish at $257.16, marking a fifth consecutive loss. The stock now sits roughly 44.8% under its 52-week high of $465.70, which was reached on Feb. 13, 2025. Volume jumped to 7.7 million shares, well above the 50-day average, according to MarketWatch data. 4
Back in December, Adobe projected fiscal 2026 revenue between $25.90 billion and $26.10 billion, with adjusted EPS landing in the $23.30 to $23.50 range. The company is leaning heavily on continued appetite for its design tools and an uptick in AI product growth. But the most recent drop in the share price points to skepticism—investors appear unconvinced that new AI features will drive top-line gains without eroding margins. 5
Adobe’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results land March 12, with the earnings call set for 2:00 p.m. Pacific. Investors are likely to zero in on guidance and specifics around pricing or AI monetization—numbers alone may take a back seat. 6
If Friday’s CPI lands above forecasts, traders could see bond yields spike and rate-cut bets pushed further out. On the flip side, a cooler print might take some heat off rates. Either way, the AI theme has been whipping individual stocks around—momentum can reverse quickly.
Right now, Friday’s inflation numbers are in focus for traders, along with whether software shares can stabilize before the weekend. Looking ahead, Adobe’s earnings on March 12 stands out as the next major event.
