Adobe Stock Today: ADBE Near 52‑Week Lows Ahead of Q4 2025 Earnings

Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) is about to step into one of its most closely watched earnings reports in years. The company sits at the center of two massive trends — generative AI and e‑commerce — yet its share price is trading near the bottom of its 52‑week range.

As of the close on December 3, 2025, Adobe shares changed hands around $326–327, recovering modestly from recent lows but still far below last year’s highs and leaving the company valued around $135 billion. ^[1] Wall Street is looking for Q4 FY2025 earnings on December 10 to confirm whether Adobe’s aggressive AI push and new acquisitions can reignite investor confidence. ^[2]

Here’s a deep dive into the latest news, analyst forecasts, and key catalysts driving ADBE right now.

Adobe stock on 3 December 2025: price, performance and valuation

Despite solid fundamentals, the stock has had a rough year:

Price: about $326.78 at the latest close, up roughly 1–1.3% on the day. ^[3]
52‑week range: roughly $311–$558, putting today’s price just above the one‑year low and ~40% below the high. ^[4]
Multiples: trailing P/E ~20x, PEG around 1.2–1.5, and forward P/E near the mid‑teens — unusually low for a high‑margin software leader. ^[5]
Profitability: net margin around 30%, return on equity above 50%, and free cash flow estimated near $9.5 billion, implying a free‑cash‑flow yield of roughly 7% at current prices. ^[6]

Several recent round‑ups note that Adobe shares are down roughly 27–38% over the past 12 months, with year‑to‑date losses in the high‑20% range despite double‑digit revenue and EPS growth. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2

In other words, investors are valuing Adobe like a mature, slower‑growth software name just as the company is leaning hardest into AI.

Fresh headlines on December 3, 2025

1. Retail traders are betting on an earnings beat

A new analysis from 24/7 Wall St. highlights a sharp turn in retail sentiment ahead of the December 10 earnings release:

Adobe shares recently traded near $336, with social‑media sentiment scores in the 71–73 range over the past month.
Prediction‑market platform Polymarket is pricing in roughly a 91% probability that Adobe beats Q4 earnings estimates.
The article links this optimism to record holiday shopping data from Adobe Analytics, including U.S. Black Friday online sales of $11.8 billion, up about 9% year over year. ^[7]

Retail traders, in other words, are treating Adobe as a potential rebound story into 2026, even as traditional analysts remain more cautious.

2. Invesco boosts its stake — institutional money stays engaged

A separate MarketBeat report today shows that Invesco Ltd. increased its position in Adobe by 16.1% in Q2, buying an additional 610,215 shares to reach 4.41 million shares, or about 1.04% of the company, valued near $1.7 billion at the time of the filing. ^[8]

The same filing‑based piece reiterates several important points:

Q3 FY2025 EPS of $5.31 beat the $5.18 consensus estimate, on revenue of $5.99 billion, up 10.7% year over year. ^[9]
Adobe’s official guidance calls for FY2025 EPS of $20.80–$20.85 and Q4 EPS of $5.35–$5.40. ^[10]
Institutional investors collectively own more than 80% of Adobe’s float. ^[11]

This suggests that, while the stock has been de‑rated, large funds aren’t abandoning the name — they’re repositioning around valuation and AI exposure.

3. New bullish research: “AI fears are overblown”

Two fresh pieces of analysis published today lean strongly bullish:

Seeking Alpha argues that concerns about Adobe’s competitive moat in the generative‑AI era are exaggerated. The author notes Adobe’s consistent revenue and margin performance, a forward P/E near the mid‑teens, and a long streak of earnings beats as reasons to rate the stock a “strong buy,” with Q4 2025 flagged as a potential inflection point. ^[12]
AInvest, in an AI‑assisted note, highlights that:
- FY2024 revenue reached $21.51 billion, up about 11% year over year.
- Document Cloud revenue grew about 18%, driven by AI‑powered PDF and document features.
- Adobe’s Firefly generative‑AI platform has already generated over 3 billion images, and AI‑linked annual recurring revenue (ARR) has surpassed $5 billion. ^[13]

The AInvest piece also points out that Adobe has been aggressively shrinking its share count via repurchases, boosting EPS even as the stock price fell, and argues that a valuation of roughly 17x EV/EBIT lags slower‑growing peers. ^[14]

4. Q4 FY2025 earnings preview: expectations are high

Multiple sources agree on the broad setup for Adobe’s December 10 earnings:

Consensus Q4 expectations:
- Revenue: about $6.11 billion, ~9% year‑over‑year growth.
- Non‑GAAP EPS: around $5.39–$5.40 per share. ^[15]
Management’s own guidance essentially matches those consensus numbers, reinforcing the sense that Adobe is trying to deliver “steady but not reckless” growth. ^[16]
AlphaStreet notes that Adobe has beaten quarterly estimates for several years in a row and returned more than $2 billion to shareholders through buybacks in the most recent quarter alone. ^[17]

With the share price sitting near 52‑week lows, the bar for a “relief rally” may be lower than usual — but any disappointment on AI metrics or guidance could also hit the stock hard.

Business momentum: AI, subscriptions and M&A

Q3 FY2025: another record quarter, AI metrics front and center

Adobe’s Q3 FY2025 (quarter ended August 29) was strong by almost any fundamental measure:

Revenue:$5.99 billion, up about 11% year over year.
GAAP EPS:$4.18; non‑GAAP EPS:$5.31, ahead of consensus.
Operating performance: GAAP operating income $2.17 billion, non‑GAAP $2.77 billion; cash flow from operations $2.20 billion.
Remaining performance obligations (RPO):$20.44 billion, with current RPO at 67%, underscoring strong forward visibility. ^[18]

Segment‑level growth remains healthy:

Digital Media revenue:$4.46 billion, up around 11–12% year over year.
Digital Experience revenue: roughly $1.48 billion, up about 9%. ^[19]

Crucially, management has begun breaking out AI‑related metrics:

AI‑influenced ARR exceeded $5 billion.
AI‑first ARR, tied to explicitly AI‑native offerings, already surpassed Adobe’s prior $250 million full‑year target by Q3, forcing an upward revision. TS2 Tech+1

CEO Shantanu Narayen called AI the company’s “biggest opportunity in decades,” citing deep integration of Firefly‑powered features across Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, After Effects and new products like the Firefly app and Acrobat Studio. ^[20]

Firefly Foundry, HUMAIN and global AI expansion

Beyond core earnings, Adobe is rolling out a multi‑pronged AI platform strategy:

Firefly Foundry — announced at Adobe MAX 2025 — lets large customers build brand‑specific, private generative AI models across images, video, audio, vector and 3D, trained on their own IP and integrated into GenStudio, Creative Cloud and Express. ^[21]
A strategic partnership with HUMAIN, backed by Saudi Arabia’s PIF, aims to build culturally tuned multimodal AI models for the Arab world, leveraging HUMAIN’s Arabic‑first LLM “ALLAM” and data‑center infrastructure. Adobe plans to use HUMAIN as a Firefly Foundry inference partner, signaling a long‑term bet on region‑specific AI. ^[22]
The planned $1.9 billion acquisition of Semrush, a brand‑visibility and SEO/GEO platform, will fold search and “generative engine optimization” data into Adobe Experience Cloud and a new product called Adobe Brand Concierge. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending approvals. ^[23]

Put simply, Adobe isn’t just bolting AI onto its existing tools; it’s trying to build an AI‑native content and marketing stack that spans creation, distribution, measurement and now search visibility in LLM‑driven interfaces.

E‑commerce tailwinds: Adobe Analytics calls a $253B holiday season

Adobe’s digital‑commerce data is another underappreciated asset:

An October Adobe Analytics forecast projects U.S. holiday online sales of $253.4 billion for the 2025 season (Nov. 1–Dec. 31), up 5.3% year over year.
Cyber Monday is expected to reach $14.2 billion in online spend, with Black Friday close behind at $11.7 billion, both mid‑single‑digit growth rates. ^[24]
Adobe expects AI‑driven shopping traffic (via chatbots and AI‑powered browsers) to surge by ~520% versus last year, reinforcing the thesis that AI will be deeply embedded in shopping and discovery. ^[25]

Because Adobe’s own Experience Cloud and Analytics sit at the center of this data, stronger e‑commerce trends can directly translate to demand for its marketing, personalization and measurement tools.

What Wall Street is forecasting for ADBE

Analyst views on Adobe have become more nuanced in 2025: broadly positive on fundamentals, but divided on how quickly AI will translate into faster growth.

Consensus ratings and price targets

Different tracking services show slightly different snapshots, but they rhyme:

MarketBeat: consensus rating “Hold” from 29 analysts, with an average 12‑month price target of $428.96 (high $590, low $280), implying roughly 31% upside from the current price. ^[26]
StockAnalysis: based on 21 analysts, consensus “Buy” with an average target of $456.52, suggesting nearly 40% upside; the median target of $450 is similar. ^[27]
MarketWatch / MT Newswires: recent summaries show an “Overweight” average rating and a mean price target around $452, based on roughly 40–41 analyst opinions. ^[28]
A Benzinga review pegs the “average” target near $425, again with most analysts rating the stock a Buy but flagging competitive pressure and technical weakness. ^[29]

Independent valuation work from firms like Morningstar has suggested a fair value in the $550–560 range, implying potential upside of 70%+ from current levels if Adobe’s AI strategy plays out and multiples re‑rate closer to historical norms. ^[30]

Recent downgrades — why the tone cooled

The headline numbers mask a string of target cuts and one high‑profile downgrade:

Morgan Stanley shifted Adobe from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight”, trimming its target from $520 to $450 on concerns over the pace of AI monetization. ^[31]
Wells Fargo, BMO, Piper Sandler, Mizuho and others have all reduced targets by $30–$80 per share over the past few months, even while maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings. ^[32]
At least one boutique firm maintains a Sell rating, arguing that cheaper AI tools could erode Adobe’s creative software pricing power, echoing earlier skepticism from firms like Redburn. ^[33]

The net result: Adobe’s average rating slid from “Moderate Buy” toward “Hold”, even though the median analyst still expects 30–40% upside over the next year.

Why the market is struggling to value Adobe

So why is Adobe, with 30% net margins and a fortress balance sheet, trading at a P/E of ~20x while Salesforce fetches ~34x despite lower profitability? A recent 24/7 Wall St. comparison makes this divergence explicit:

Adobe: ~30% net margin, 36% operating margin, ROE ~53%, TTM revenue ~$23.2B.
Salesforce: ~17% net margin, 23% operating margin, ROE ~11%, TTM revenue ~$39.5B.
Yet Salesforce trades at a rich multiple while Adobe’s multiple has compressed, largely because investors are more excited about Salesforce’s agent‑based AI narrative. ^[34]

At the same time, TechStock² and other aggregators highlight that Adobe’s free‑cash‑flow yield near 7% and FCF of roughly $9.5 billion are more typical of a “value” stock than a growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑price SaaS leader. TS2 Tech+1

In short, narrative and valuation have become disconnected:

The AI story (Firefly, Firefly Foundry, Acrobat Studio, AI agents, Semrush, HUMAIN) is getting bigger. ^[35]
The stock story is cautious: compressed multiples, downgrade drift, and a “show‑me” attitude until AI‑driven ARR and Experience Cloud growth accelerate visibly. TS2 Tech+1

Key risks investors are watching

Even the bullish research notes acknowledge real risks around ADBE:

Intensifying AI competition
- Tools from OpenAI, Canva, Figma, Google and a long tail of generative‑image and video startups threaten to commoditize basic creative tasks.
- A Wedbush Sell rating and several cautious notes question whether Adobe can keep enough differentiation — and pricing power — in a world of cheap AI art and templates. ^[36]
Execution risk on Semrush and AI platforms
- The Semrush acquisition gives Adobe a powerful GEO/SEO engine but also adds integration complexity and regulatory closing risk into 2026. ^[37]
- Firefly Foundry and partner programs (like HUMAIN) require Adobe to scale AI infrastructure, ethics governance and customer‑specific model training globally — not a trivial task. ^[38]
Macro and enterprise IT budgets
- Adobe’s Digital Experience segment and large‑enterprise subscriptions are exposed to marketing and IT spending cycles. A slowdown or budget reshuffle could weigh on net‑new ARR even if AI interest is high. TS2 Tech+1
Technical and sentiment overhangs
- The stock is trading below both its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, clustered just above technical support in the low‑$310s, with heavy institutional ownership amplifying moves when sentiment shifts. TS2 Tech+1

What to watch on December 10 (and after)

For investors and traders following ADBE into Q4 FY2025 earnings, several metrics may matter even more than the headline EPS beat or miss:

AI‑linked ARR and adoption
- Growth in AI‑influenced ARR (now >$5B) and AI‑first ARR relative to Q3.
- Adoption rates for Firefly features in Creative Cloud and Acrobat AI Assistant — early data points like 70% uptake among eligible Acrobat users have impressed analysts. ^[39]
Digital Media net new ARR
- Investors will scrutinize whether Firefly and new mobile experiences (like Premiere Pro on iPhone) can keep Creative Cloud and Document Cloud growth in the low‑double‑digit range despite competition and macro noise. ^[40]
Digital Experience & Semrush roadmap
- Any color on integrating Semrush’s GEO/SEO data into Experience Cloud, as well as early performance from GenStudio and Firefly Foundry deployments, will shape how quickly analysts build AI‑marketing upside into their models. ^[41]
Capital allocation
- Pace of share repurchases after a year of aggressive buybacks.
- Updated long‑term margin and free‑cash‑flow targets in light of AI infrastructure spend and the Semrush deal.
Guidance for FY2026
- Street models already assume mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit revenue growth with stable margins. A meaningfully higher (or lower) outlook tied to AI monetization would likely move the stock sharply. ^[42]

Bottom line: Is Adobe stock attractive after the 2025 sell‑off?

From a fundamental standpoint, Adobe still looks like a textbook high‑quality franchise:

Double‑digit revenue and EPS growth. ^[43]
30% net margins, strong cash generation and one of the strongest moats in creative and document workflows. ^[44]
A rapidly expanding AI product line — Firefly, Firefly Foundry, Acrobat AI Assistant, AI agents, Experience Cloud innovations — braced by deals like Semrush and partnerships such as HUMAIN. ^[45]

From a market standpoint, the picture is murkier:

The stock is near 52‑week lows, down ~30–40% from its peak. TS2 Tech+1
Analyst ratings have cooled from “must‑own AI stock” to “Hold with upside”, even though average price targets still sit 30–40% above today’s price. ^[46]
Retail traders and some fundamental analysts now see that disconnect as an opportunity — but the market is clearly demanding proof that AI and Semrush can accelerate growth, not just support it. ^[47]

For long‑term, research‑driven investors, Adobe currently screens as:

A highly profitable software and AI platform trading at value‑stock‑like multiples,
With a balance of clear strengths (moat, margins, AI roadmap, data assets)
And real execution risks (competition, integration, narrative skepticism).

Whether that asymmetry is attractive depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and view on Adobe’s ability to turn AI buzz into durable, higher‑growth ARR.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

Quick FAQs about Adobe stock in December 2025

When does Adobe report earnings next?
Adobe is scheduled to report Q4 and full‑year FY2025 earnings on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, with the earnings call at 2:00 pm Pacific / 5:00 pm Eastern. ^[48]

What are analysts expecting for Q4 2025?
Consensus looks for around $6.1 billion in revenue and non‑GAAP EPS near $5.39–$5.40, in line with Adobe’s own guidance. ^[49]

Why is Adobe stock down so much in 2025?
A combination of multiple compression, concern that generative AI could erode Adobe’s moat, and skepticism about how quickly AI investments will translate into faster growth has pushed the stock down roughly 30–40% over the last year, even as earnings continue to rise. Seeking Alpha+3TS2 Tech+3CoinCentral+3

Is Adobe stock a buy, hold, or sell according to Wall Street?
Most data providers show more Buys than Sells, but the aggregated view sits between “Hold” and “Moderate Buy,” with average price targets in the $425–$460 range — about 30–40% above current levels. ^[50]

References

Adobe Stock Today: ADBE Near 52‑Week Lows Ahead of Q4 2025 Earnings — Is the Market Mispricing Its AI Pivot?