Adobe Stock Today (ADBE): Premarket Moves After Q4 2025 Earnings, AI Outlook and 2026 Forecast

Updated: Thursday, December 11, 2025 – 5:00 a.m. ET

Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) is waking up to a mixed reaction on Wall Street this morning. After reporting record fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results and issuing an upbeat 2026 forecast driven by its generative‑AI platform Firefly, the stock is trading slightly lower in premarket as investors weigh strong growth against margin guidance and tough competition in creative software.

Adobe stock premarket on December 11, 2025

Previous close (Dec 10, 2025): Adobe shares finished Wednesday’s regular session at $343.13, down about 0.35% on the day. ^[1]
Premarket (around 5:00 a.m. ET, Dec 11): As of roughly 5:00 a.m. Eastern, Adobe is trading near $342 in premarket activity, about 0.3% below yesterday’s close. Trading so far has been light, with early prints clustered in the $341–$342 range. ^[2]

That mild dip comes even though Adobe beat expectations on revenue and earnings and guided 2026 revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates, thanks largely to strong demand for its design tools and expanding AI offerings. ^[3]

Broader tech sentiment is also fragile this morning: Oracle’s more cautious comments about the timing of returns on AI infrastructure spending have weighed on AI‑exposed names globally, adding a macro headwind to an otherwise solid Adobe story. ^[4]

What Adobe reported in Q4 2025

Adobe released its Q4 and full‑year 2025 results after the close on Wednesday, December 10. The headline: record revenue, strong cash flow and double‑digit growth, with AI front and center. ^[5]

Key Q4 2025 numbers

From Adobe’s official earnings release and follow‑up analyses: ^[6]

Revenue:
- Q4 revenue of $6.19 billion, up about 10–10.5% year over year, and ahead of the ~$6.11 billion consensus.
Earnings:
- GAAP EPS: $4.45
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$5.50, roughly $0.10 above analyst estimates (~1.9% beat).
Profitability & margins:
- Non‑GAAP operating income of about $2.82 billion, implying a 45.6% operating margin, modestly above expectations.
Cash flow & balance sheet:
- Record operating cash flow of $3.16 billion in the quarter.
- Approximately 7.2 million shares repurchased in Q4.

Segment and ARR performance

Adobe’s growth remains broad‑based across its main franchises: ^[7]

Digital Media segment (Creative Cloud, Document Cloud):
- Q4 revenue $4.62 billion, up 11% year over year.
- Digital Media Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) exiting the year: $19.20 billion, up 11.5%.
Digital Experience (Experience Cloud):
- Q4 revenue $1.52 billion, up 9% year over year; subscription revenue in this segment grew about 11%.
Total subscription engine:
- Total customer‑group subscription revenue in Q4: $5.96 billion, up 12% year over year.
Total Adobe ARR:
- Company‑wide ARR at year‑end: $25.20 billion, growing 11.5% year over year.
- After an FX‑related revaluation, management now pegs starting FY2026 ARR at $25.66 billion. ^[8]

For full‑year 2025, Adobe generated $23.77 billion in revenue (up about 11%), more than $10 billion of operating cash flow, and continued aggressive buybacks, retiring roughly 30.8 million shares over the year. ^[9]

2026 guidance: double‑digit growth, but lower margins

Where the market is really focused this morning is Adobe’s 2026 outlook. Management is leaning hard into the idea that Adobe is becoming an AI‑powered subscription and ARR machine.

From Adobe’s own financial targets and coverage by Reuters and PYMNTS: ^[10]

FY2026 guidance (company targets)

Total revenue:$25.9–$26.1 billion, modestly above analyst expectations (~$25.87 billion).
Total ending ARR growth: Targeted at about 10.2% year over year, which RBC notes is Adobe’s highest initial ARR growth target for a new fiscal year. ^[11]
Non‑GAAP EPS:$23.30–$23.50 (midpoint around $23.40), slightly ahead of consensus. ^[12]
Customer‑group subscription revenue:
- Business Professionals & Consumers: $7.35–$7.40 billion
- Creative & Marketing Professionals: $17.75–$17.90 billion
Margins:
- Non‑GAAP operating margin guidance of roughly 45%, down about 80 basis points from 2025’s ~46.2%, as the company spends more on AI, product innovation and go‑to‑market. ^[13]

For Q1 FY2026, Adobe guided: ^[14]

Revenue:$6.25–$6.30 billion (midpoint slightly above Street estimates around $6.28 billion).
Non‑GAAP EPS:$5.85–$5.90.

In other words: growth and AI momentum look solid, but margins are guided a touch lower, which is exactly what some brokers highlighted overnight as a reason for the muted share‑price reaction.

A Reuters headline captured the mood well: Adobe is signaling strong AI‑driven growth, but at the cost of some margin pressure. ^[15]

Firefly, AI agents and Semrush: Adobe’s AI story, version 2026

A big chunk of both the earnings call and fresh analysis this morning is about how AI really shows up in Adobe’s numbers.

Generative AI embedded everywhere

From Adobe’s press release, the Finviz/StockStory deep dive and Reuters: ^[16]

Firefly generative models are now woven through Creative Cloud, Express and Acrobat, boosting engagement and driving consumption of “generative credits”, which tripled quarter‑over‑quarter. ^[17]
Freemium adoption is surging: monthly active users of Adobe’s free creative tools grew about 35% year over year to more than 70 million, providing a large funnel to convert into paid subscriptions. ^[18]
Enterprise‑oriented offerings like Firefly Foundry and GenStudio are seeing strong adoption as large customers build custom AI models and automate content supply chains. ^[19]
Adobe is also deepening integrations with major platforms including AWS, Google Gemini and Microsoft Copilot, strengthening its position as a neutral layer for creative and marketing AI workflows. ^[20]

Semrush acquisition and ChatGPT integrations

Beyond the core creative suite, Adobe is moving aggressively into AI‑driven marketing and search visibility:

Adobe plans to acquire Semrush for about $1.9 billion, adding “generative engine optimization” tools designed to help brands understand how they appear in traditional search results and AI chatbots alike. ^[21]
Adobe announced that Photoshop, Adobe Express and Acrobat will be available as apps inside ChatGPT, allowing users to ask the chatbot to generate designs or edit images and PDFs using Adobe tools in the background. ^[22]

Management’s core message, repeated in both the press release and media coverage: Adobe wants its entire business to be “AI‑influenced”, with ARR increasingly tied to AI‑enhanced tiers, credits and automation workflows. ^[23]

Why the stock isn’t roaring despite a clear beat

If the numbers looked good and the AI story sounds compelling, why is Adobe only slightly down or flat premarket instead of surging?

Recent commentary from MarketWatch, Stocktwits, and several brokers points to a few pressure points: ^[24]

Margins are moving the wrong way (for now).
Even though the company is guiding to double‑digit ARR and high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit revenue growth, its non‑GAAP operating margin is expected to contract modestly in 2026 as AI and go‑to‑market investments ramp. Some investors had hoped Adobe could keep expanding margins even while building out AI, so this “spend now, harvest later” message lands cautiously.
Investors still want clearer proof of AI monetization.
MarketWatch and other outlets note that while Firefly and AI‑enabled tools are clearly popular, the market is still looking for more explicit AI revenue breakdowns and growth metrics to fully buy into the long‑term thesis. ^[25]
Competitive heat from Figma, Canva and other upstarts.
A Stocktwits editorial published early this morning argues that Adobe’s creative “crown” is under pressure as rivals gain share, particularly in collaborative product design (Figma) and lightweight graphics creation (Canva). ^[26]
Stock performance has lagged badly.
- Adobe shares have fallen over 20% year‑to‑date and about 37% over the past 12 months, materially underperforming the broader market and many software peers. ^[27]
- A recent Motley Fool piece highlighted that the stock was down roughly 27% heading into earnings, framing the current setup as a potential value opportunity but also a sign of deep investor skepticism about Adobe’s AI positioning. ^[28]
Macro AI sentiment is wobbling.
Oracle’s sharp post‑earnings sell‑off after warning that AI‑related investments may take longer to pay off has sparked questions about near‑term returns on AI across the software sector, which can spill over onto Adobe even if its own results are solid. ^[29]

Put simply: Adobe is telling a convincing growth and AI story, but it’s asking investors to trust that near‑term investment and modest margin compression will pay off later. After a difficult year for the stock, that trust still needs to be rebuilt.

What Wall Street is saying this morning

Despite the muted price action, most major analysts remain fundamentally bullish on Adobe following the results.

Goldman Sachs: Buy, $570 price target

Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating and $570 price target after the report: ^[30]

Adobe beat expectations on revenue and earnings, with Digital Media and Digital Experience both slightly ahead of forecasts.
Free‑cash‑flow margin was well ahead of expectations; Goldman notes roughly $9.6 billion in levered free cash flow over the last 12 months and a gross margin above 89%.
The bank views the 45% operating‑margin guide for 2026 as “prudent” given the need to invest heavily in AI, innovation and go‑to‑market.
It highlights tripling generative‑credit consumption across Creative Cloud, Firefly and Express, and doubling ARR in content automation as signs that AI is already driving incremental revenue.

Goldman’s bottom line: 2026 guidance is an encouraging starting point, and the current share price leaves ample upside if Adobe executes.

RBC Capital: Outperform, $430 price target

RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating and a $430 price target: ^[31]

RBC describes Adobe as the “central orchestration layer for digital assets” in creative and marketing workflows, pointing to its growing list of partner integrations.
Analysts highlight strong DMARR growth and the 10.2% total ARR growth target for 2026 as evidence that AI‑enhanced subscriptions are gaining traction.
RBC also notes that Adobe’s initial 2026 ARR target is the most ambitious starting point the company has issued, framing it as a sign of management confidence.

Morningstar and long‑term valuation

Morningstar’s fresh note on the quarter says Adobe’s Q4 revenue grew about 10.5% to $6.19 billion with a 45.6% non‑GAAP operating margin, and concludes that the stock is “significantly undervalued” at current levels. ^[32]

Stocktwits’ roundup of Street ratings shows a similar pattern: 25 of 40 analysts rate Adobe a Buy or Strong Buy, 12 call it a Hold and only 3 rate it a Sell, with an average 12‑month price target near $444, implying about 30% upside from current levels. ^[33]

Competition and the “AI loser” narrative

Not all of the commentary is rosy. Several recent pieces – including from Stocktwits, Nasdaq and Wedbush‑summarized reports – argue that Adobe’s leadership in creative software is being tested. ^[34]

Key concerns:

Growth plateau: Revenue growth has hovered around 10% for several quarters, and some analysts worry that Adobe’s AI investments haven’t yet translated into visibly faster top‑line acceleration. ^[35]
Figma & Canva:
- Figma is increasingly seen as the de‑facto standard for UI/UX design, leveraging real‑time collaboration and fast product iteration.
- Canva, while targeting a somewhat different user base, is expanding rapidly and offering more advanced tools at approachable price points. ^[36]
Investor skepticism about AI returns:
Morgan Stanley downgraded Adobe earlier this year, arguing that AI monetization appears slower than hoped and that many existing subscribers are still unsure whether generative AI is a clear net positive for them. ^[37]

One particularly blunt framing has been that Adobe risks being seen as an “AI loser” if investors conclude that new AI‑native competitors capture more of the value created by generative tools, even as Adobe invests heavily to keep up. Barron’s and Investor’s Business Daily both note this perception even while acknowledging that the latest quarter showed “rapid adoption” of Adobe’s AI features and an earnings beat. ^[38]

Sentiment from options and retail investors

Options market: preparing for big moves

Options‑market data suggests traders expect elevated short‑term volatility in Adobe: weekly contracts expiring December 12, 2025 recently implied an “expected move” of roughly ±$27 (about 7–8%) around current prices, indicating that markets are braced for sizable swings as investors digest the new guidance and AI narrative. ^[39]

Retail sentiment

Heading into yesterday’s report, retail investors were broadly optimistic:

A 24/7 Wall St analysis noted that retail traders were pricing in about a 91% probability that Adobe would beat estimates on December 10, with sentiment turning decisively bullish as the stock hovered in the mid‑$330s. ^[40]
On platforms like Stocktwits, the stock has attracted “extremely bullish” sentiment from many retail traders throughout 2025, even as the share price trended lower. ^[41]

That enthusiasm now meets reality: Adobe has delivered the beat and a constructive 2026 outlook, but the share price reaction remains muted. Whether retail buyers double down on the pullback or grow more cautious will be an important dynamic to watch over the next few sessions.

What to watch next for Adobe stock

As trading unfolds today and in the weeks ahead, several key themes could drive ADBE’s next leg:

Can Adobe prove AI is accelerating growth, not just defending it?
The company has clearly embedded AI deeply across its products and is seeing huge freemium adoption and rising generative‑credit usage. Bulls will want to see faster ARR growth, higher attach rates on AI‑enhanced tiers and more granular AI revenue disclosure to show that AI is a genuine growth engine. ^[42]
Margin trajectory vs. investment pace.
Investors will track whether Adobe can re‑expand operating margins after 2026 as AI investments scale, or whether the company will need to keep spending heavily just to stand still in an increasingly competitive market. ^[43]
Regulatory and integration risks around Semrush.
The roughly $1.9 billion Semrush acquisition is central to Adobe’s plan to dominate AI‑powered marketing and search analytics. Execution missteps, integration challenges or regulatory delays could weigh on the stock. ^[44]
Competitive response from Figma, Canva and others.
Updates from competing platforms, particularly new AI features, pricing moves or ecosystem partnerships, could influence how investors handicap Adobe’s long‑term moat. ^[45]
Macro AI sentiment and broader tech risk appetite.
As Oracle’s results reminded markets this week, AI narratives can turn quickly when big players suggest returns may be slower than expected. Adobe’s stock will likely be sensitive not just to its own execution, but to the sector‑wide view of AI monetization. ^[46]

Bottom line: Adobe stock at 5:00 a.m. ET on December 11, 2025

Going into the U.S. trading day, the picture for Adobe looks like this:

Fundamentals: A clean Q4 beat, record revenue and cash flow, and a 2026 outlook slightly ahead of expectations.
Story: A company doubling down on AI‑powered creativity and marketing, with Firefly, AI agents, Semrush and ChatGPT integrations all pulling the same direction.
Stock: Trading around $342 in premarket, modestly below yesterday’s close and still down sharply over the past year, despite a largely bullish analyst community and price targets that sit well above current levels. ^[47]

For investors, Adobe today looks less like a momentum trade and more like a trust test: do you believe that its deep product integration, massive installed base and ARR‑driven model will allow it to translate AI excitement into durable, higher‑margin growth over the next several years, even as competition intensifies?

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Anyone considering Adobe stock should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification, and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor.