Adobe Stock Today: AI Fears, Semrush Deal and Q4 2025 Earnings

As of December 9, 2025, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) is heading into its crucial Q4 and full‑year 2025 earnings report with its share price in the mid‑$340s, down roughly a quarter year‑to‑date and nearly 40% over the last 12 months. ^[1]

Investors are trying to decide whether Adobe is an “AI loser” at risk of disruption, or a mispriced compounder that’s already monetizing generative AI at scale.

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts, and analysis as of December 9, 2025, to give a clear, up‑to‑date picture of Adobe stock for Google News and Discover readers.

Where Adobe Stock Stands on December 9, 2025

At midday U.S. trading on December 9, 2025, Adobe stock trades around $346–347 per share, with a 52‑week range of $311.59 to $557.90. The company’s market capitalization is about $145 billion, and it trades at roughly 21.6x trailing earnings and 15.2x forward earnings, according to StockAnalysis. ^[2]

Total return data shows just how rough the last two years have been:

YTD 2025 total return: about ‑23–24%
1‑year total return: around ‑38%
2024 total return: roughly ‑25% ^[3]

By contrast, Adobe’s 10‑year total return is still strongly positive, reflecting its long run as a high‑quality growth compounder. ^[4]

A Simply Wall St valuation review published today highlights that, despite a 5% gain over the last week, Adobe shares are still down 23.1% year to date and 38.1% over the last 12 months, underscoring how far sentiment has swung. ^[5]

Earnings Countdown: What to Expect From Adobe’s Q4 2025 Report

Adobe will report Q4 and full‑year 2025 results after the market close on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, followed by an investor conference call from 2–3 p.m. Pacific Time. ^[6]

Company Guidance

From its Q3 FY25 earnings release (for the quarter ended August 29, 2025), Adobe issued the following Q4 guidance: ^[7]

Total revenue: $6.075 – $6.125 billion
Digital Media revenue: $4.53 – $4.56 billion
Digital Experience revenue: $1.495 – $1.515 billion
GAAP EPS: $4.27 – $4.32
Non‑GAAP EPS: $5.35 – $5.40

For the full fiscal year 2025, Adobe raised its targets to:

Total revenue: $23.65 – $23.70 billion
GAAP EPS: $16.53 – $16.58
Non‑GAAP EPS: $20.80 – $20.85 ^[8]

These targets imply low double‑digit revenue growth and robust margin performance despite higher AI investment.

Wall Street Consensus for Q4

Several recent previews (Zacks, TipRanks, Benzinga and others) point to expectations broadly in line with Adobe’s guidance:

Wall Street is looking for roughly $6.1 billion in Q4 revenue and about $5.40 in non‑GAAP EPS, up around 9–12% year over year. ^[9]

The key question is not whether Adobe can meet guidance—it has a long history of beating consensus—but whether management’s commentary on AI demand, pricing, and margins is strong enough to change the story around the stock.

How the Business Is Actually Performing

Despite the share‑price drawdown, Adobe’s operating performance remains strong.

In Q3 FY25, Adobe reported: ^[10]

Record revenue: $5.99 billion, up 11% year over year
GAAP EPS: $4.18
Non‑GAAP EPS: $5.31
Digital Media revenue: $4.46 billion, up 12%
Digital Media ARR: $18.59 billion, up 11.7%
Digital Experience revenue: $1.48 billion, up 9%
Operating margin: mid‑30s (GAAP) with even higher non‑GAAP margins
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): $20.44 billion, indicating a strong backlog

Crucially, management disclosed that AI‑influenced ARR has surpassed $5 billion, and “AI‑first” ARR already exceeds the company’s prior year‑end target of $250 million, highlighting that generative AI isn’t just a marketing slogan—it’s beginning to show up in the numbers. ^[11]

Trefis estimates that Adobe’s operating margin across the last four quarters sits around 36%, with an operating cash‑flow margin above 40%, and net income margins near 30%, far above the S&P 500 averages. ^[12]

The AI Narrative: “Loser” Label vs. Undervalued Compounder

Why Some Analysts Call Adobe an “AI Loser”

A widely circulated Wedbush report, highlighted in Investor’s Business Daily and MarketWatch, placed Adobe on an “AI loser” list alongside Uber, Intel, Pinterest and others. ^[13]

The core bear arguments:

AI‑native tools and platforms could erode Adobe’s pricing power and challenge its SaaS model.
Cheaper AI design apps, template‑driven tools, and browser‑based competitors might chip away at Creative Cloud in the consumer and small‑business segments. ^[14]

This “AI fear” narrative has clearly impacted sentiment. Multiple outlets (Trefis, Benzinga, The Motley Fool) note that Adobe’s stock is down roughly 27% year‑to‑date and more than 50% below its pandemic‑era highs, even as earnings and free cash flow hit new records. ^[15]

Why Many Others See an AI‑Powered Opportunity

Bullish analysts argue that the AI narrative is backward: Adobe is using AI to deepen its moat, not lose it.

Key points often cited:

Record revenue and raised guidance: Despite the stock drop, Adobe keeps posting all‑time‑high revenue and has raised FY25 revenue and EPS targets. ^[16]
Multi‑billion‑dollar AI ARR: AI‑influenced ARR > $5B, with AI‑first products like Firefly, Acrobat AI Assistant and GenStudio already material to growth. ^[17]
Enterprise stickiness: Virtually all Fortune 100 companies rely on Adobe’s creative and experience tools, making mass switching to cheaper AI alternatives less likely in the near term. ^[18]

A recent TipRanks article framed Adobe as a “thriving business mispriced by AI panic”, noting that Q3 revenue rose ~11% with non‑GAAP EPS up ~14%, hardly the profile of a disrupted incumbent. ^[19]

Several Seeking Alpha contributors and Trefis likewise describe Adobe as undervalued, pointing to strong fundamentals, high margins, and a forward P/E in the mid‑teens—levels typically associated with slower‑growing, more cyclical companies. ^[20]

Firefly, GenStudio and Agentic AI: Monetizing Creativity

Adobe’s AI strategy centers on Firefly, its family of generative models, and a broader push into agentic AI across Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud.

Key AI Growth Drivers

Firefly in Creative Cloud
Firefly powers features like Generative Fill in Photoshop, AI‑assisted design in Illustrator and new image, video and audio tools across Creative Cloud. These are monetized via credit‑based usage models layered on top of existing subscriptions, creating incremental revenue rather than simply giving AI away. ^[21]
GenStudio and the Content Supply Chain
At Adobe MAX 2025, the company announced major GenStudio enhancements, promising “scaled content production” and deeper customization through Firefly Foundry, plus a growing network of ad‑delivery partners. ^[22] AInvest reports that GenStudio has already surpassed $1 billion in ARR and is growing north of 25% year‑on‑year, positioning it as a meaningful AI growth engine within the Digital Experience business. ^[23]
AI‑First Document Workflows
Acrobat AI Assistant and related tools are pulling Adobe’s document cloud further into AI‑powered workflows—summarizing documents, extracting key data, and automating approvals. Management has repeatedly linked this to higher ARPU and retention. ^[24]

Collectively, these initiatives support the bull case that Adobe is embedding AI inside an already dominant ecosystem, rather than fighting from the outside.

The Semrush Deal: Owning Visibility in an AI‑Search World

One of the most important strategic moves this year is Adobe’s planned acquisition of Semrush Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SEMR).

Deal Terms

Price: $12.00 per share in cash
Equity value: about $1.9 billion
Status: Definitive agreement signed; boards approved
Expected close: First half of 2026, pending regulatory approval and a shareholder vote at Semrush. ^[25]

Strategic Rationale

Semrush is a leading platform for SEO and “Generative Engine Optimization” (GEO)—helping brands stay visible not only in classic search but also inside large language models like ChatGPT and Google Gemini. ^[26]

Adobe’s pitch is that, together with Adobe Experience Manager, Adobe Analytics and the new Adobe Brand Concierge, integrating Semrush will allow marketers to: ^[27]

Understand how their brands appear across web, owned channels, search engines and LLMs
Optimize content and campaigns for both search and AI‑driven “answer engines”
Tie creative production (via GenStudio and Creative Cloud) directly to real‑time visibility data

In its latest quarter, Semrush reported 33% year‑over‑year ARR growth in its enterprise segment, underlining the demand for these tools among large brands like Amazon, JPMorgan and TikTok. ^[28]

Risks Around the Deal

The transaction still requires regulatory approval, and several shareholder‑rights law firms have already announced investigations into whether Semrush’s board secured a fair price, highlighting execution and headline risk around the acquisition. ^[29]

Given regulators forced Adobe to abandon its planned Figma takeover in 2023 (a separate, earlier deal), investors are understandably focused on antitrust risk—though the Semrush transaction is much smaller and in a more fragmented market.

Analyst Ratings, Targets and Valuation

Street Consensus

Across major aggregators, the numbers differ slightly but tell a similar story: fundamentals solid, sentiment mixed, upside implied.

StockAnalysis: 23 analysts, average rating “Buy”, average 12‑month price target $453.48, implying about 31% upside from current levels. Target range: $280 – $600. ^[30]
QuiverQuant analyst tracker: 17 recent price targets with a median around $430. Recent moves include Stifel at $450 (Dec 9), Citi at $366 (Dec 4), DA Davidson at $600, Mizuho at $390, Wells Fargo at $420, and Morgan Stanley at $450. ^[31]
Benzinga forecast piece: consensus rating Buy, with a mean target near $460 and a broad $280–$590 range, reflecting both optimism and concern. ^[32]
MarketBeat: suggests a more cautious picture—1 strong buy, 14 buys, 11 holds, and 3 sells—yielding a consensus “Hold” rating and average target around $425. ^[33]

In other words, no clear bearish consensus, but a wide dispersion of views and very different implied upside depending on the firm.

Fresh Analyst Commentary

Stifel (Buy, PT cut from $480 to $450): Stifel remains bullish despite AI headwinds, highlighting Adobe’s improved AI messaging and its integration of third‑party AI models into Creative Cloud. They note that shares have fallen about 23% in 2025, but believe the company is better positioned heading into Q4. ^[34]
Citi (Neutral, PT cut to $366): Citi expects a modest beat in Q4 but trimmed margin assumptions due to higher spending, particularly in sales, marketing and R&D. ^[35]
Simply Wall St: A fresh DCF model estimates fair value near $525.66 per share, about 35.5% above current levels, and notes Adobe trades at ~20.4x earnings vs a software industry average around 32x. Their framework flags the stock as undervalued on both cash‑flow and P/E metrics. ^[36]

Institutional and Insider Positioning

A new MarketBeat filing summary shows State Street Corp, one of Adobe’s largest shareholders, trimmed its stake slightly in Q2, selling fewer than 5,000 shares while still holding over 20.27 million shares (about 4.78% of the company). Institutional investors and hedge funds collectively own roughly 82% of the float, underscoring the stock’s deep institutional following. ^[37]

On the insider front, Adobe’s CAO Jillian Forusz sold 149 shares in late October for roughly $50,000—tiny relative to overall insider holdings and not unusual for executive compensation management. ^[38]

Congressional trading trackers also show mixed activity in Adobe shares over the past six months, with several U.S. lawmakers making both purchases and sales, but no clear directional signal. ^[39]

Valuation Check: Cheap or Still a Value Trap?

Several independent analyses converge on the idea that Adobe now looks cheap relative to its history and peers, even after accounting for AI risk.

AInvest notes that Adobe trades at a P/E around 21.5, well below its 10‑year average near 32.5, and highlights an average analyst target close to $455, implying mid‑30s percentage upside. ^[40]
Simply Wall St’s DCF model estimates fair value in the $520+ range, labeling the stock roughly 35% undervalued, while its fair‑value P/E model suggests Adobe deserves a multiple closer to 35.8x vs. the current 20.4x. ^[41]
Trefis explicitly calls ADBE a “compelling buy opportunity” at around $320, citing strong growth, very high margins and a modest debt load—about $6.6 billion of debt versus a market cap of roughly $134–145 billion—and estimates ~39% upside to a fair value of $470. ^[42]

That said, valuation is only attractive if Adobe delivers on AI monetization and growth; otherwise the multiple could compress further.

Key Risks Heading Into Earnings

1. Generative AI Competition

Cheap or freemium AI design tools from Canva, Google’s Gemini, and a swarm of startups could pressure Adobe’s pricing, especially in the non‑enterprise segment. ^[43]
If customers conclude that AI‑assisted creativity is “good enough” without Adobe’s premium ecosystem, subscriber growth or ARPU could slow faster than current forecasts assume.

2. Execution on AI Monetization

Investors want clear proof that AI features drive higher revenue per user, not just increased usage. Multiple analysts are watching whether Firefly credits, Acrobat AI Assistant and GenStudio upsells translate into ARR growth above historical levels. ^[44]

3. Regulatory and M&A Risk

The Semrush acquisition must clear regulators and a shareholder vote; law‑firm investigations into the deal price highlight the risk of delays or changes. ^[45]
The failed Figma deal showed that large creative‑software acquisitions can face intense antitrust scrutiny, something investors are keenly aware of.

4. Macro & Marketing Budgets

Adobe’s Digital Experience and GenStudio businesses are tightly linked to marketing and advertising budgets, which are cyclical and sensitive to macro slowdowns.
Several analysts flag the risk that enterprises tighten spending in 2026 even as Adobe is ramping AI investments. ^[46]

Bull vs. Bear: What the Market Will Focus on December 10

Going into the Q4 report, here’s what the bulls want to see:

Revenue and EPS at or above the high end of guidance. ^[47]
Double‑digit Digital Media ARR growth with a clear contribution from AI features. ^[48]
Evidence that AI‑driven tools (Firefly, GenStudio, Acrobat AI Assistant) are raising ARPU, not just engagement. ^[49]
Solid commentary on the Semrush integration roadmap and early GEO demand signals. ^[50]
Stable or improving non‑GAAP operating margins despite heavy AI R&D. ^[51]

The bears, by contrast, will be looking for:

Any downward tweak to FY26 expectations, especially on growth or margins.
Signs of pricing pressure in Creative Cloud or Document Cloud subscriptions.
Negative updates on the Semrush deal, or hints of regulatory friction. ^[52]

If Adobe checks most of the bullish boxes, there is plenty of room for multiple expansion from a mid‑teens forward P/E. If not, the “AI loser” label could stick for longer.

FAQ: Adobe Stock in Late 2025

When is Adobe’s next earnings call?

Adobe reports Q4 and FY2025 results on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, after market close, with a conference call scheduled from 2–3 p.m. Pacific Time. ^[53]

What is the current consensus price target for ADBE?

Most aggregators cluster in the low‑ to mid‑$400s, with:

StockAnalysis: $453.48 average (Buy). ^[54]
MarketBeat: about $424.74 average (Hold). ^[55]
Benzinga: around $460, based on 25 analyst ratings. ^[56]

These targets imply roughly 30–35% upside from current prices, but the range runs from around $280 to $600, reflecting uncertainty.

Is Adobe stock considered cheap or expensive right now?

Relative to its history and many software peers, Adobe currently trades at: ^[57]

~21–22x trailing earnings
~15x forward earnings
Well below prior years’ multiples and lower than many high‑growth software names

Several independent models (Simply Wall St DCF, Trefis, AInvest) suggest the stock is 20–40% undervalued if Adobe sustains double‑digit growth and monetizes AI effectively. But that depends on execution.

Bottom Line

On December 9, 2025, Adobe stock sits at the intersection of fear and opportunity:

The fear: generative AI will commoditize creative tools, cannibalize Adobe’s premium pricing, and leave it as a mature, ex‑growth software vendor.
The opportunity: Adobe is already posting record results, raising guidance, generating billions in AI‑related ARR, and using deals like Semrush to own not just creativity, but brand visibility in an AI‑search world. ^[58]

Whether ADBE ultimately proves to be an “AI loser” or a mispriced AI platform leader will hinge on the details that emerge from tomorrow’s earnings call—particularly around AI monetization, customer adoption and the forward outlook.

For now, the market has priced in a lot of skepticism. Many analysts and valuation models argue that if Adobe simply keeps doing what it has been doing—growing at ~10–12% with elite margins—today’s multiples look too low. ^[59]

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

References

Adobe Stock Today: AI Fears, Semrush Deal and Q4 2025 Earnings – Is ADBE a Buy Before Results?