Affirm’s Rollercoaster: Profit Milestone, Insider Sell-Off & Big BNPL Bets

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Stock and Business Analysis as of September 24, 2025

Stock Price & Performance: Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ: AFRM) traded around $83 per share as of September 24, 2025, after a volatile week. The stock plunged ~8% on Sept 23 to close at $82.73 amid insider selling news ^[1], but remains up over 50% year-to-date and near recent highs (52-week high ~$100 ^[2]).
Q4 Earnings Beat & Profitability: AFRM shattered expectations in its fiscal Q4 2025 (quarter ended June 30, 2025), swinging to a profit. EPS came in at $0.20 (versus a -$0.14 loss a year prior) on revenue of $876 million, topping analyst forecasts of $0.11 and $837M ^[3]. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) surged 43% to $10.4 billion, fueling a 17% post-earnings stock jump ^[4] ^[5]. CEO Max Levchin noted “consistent execution” led to achieving operating income profitability in Q4’25 “right on the schedule we committed to a year ago” ^[6].
Insider Sales Shake Confidence: A Form 144 filing on Sept 22 revealed co-founder/CEO Max Levchin’s plan to sell ~651,713 shares (worth ~$58M) ^[7]. This was in addition to ~$54M in stock he sold over the prior month ^[8]. News of the sizeable insider sales spooked investors, contributing to a stock pullback as such sales can signal insiders feel the stock may be fully valued ^[9].
Strategic Partnerships & Expansion: In mid-September, Affirm unveiled a “trifecta” of partnerships expanding its BNPL reach. It integrated with Apple Pay for in-store purchases on iPhone (launched Sept 15), letting shoppers split payments at physical checkouts ^[10]. It also announced multi-year deals with ServiceTitan (home contractors platform) and Vagaro (salons/fitness platform), bringing Affirm’s pay-over-time plans to thousands of home service contractors and nearly 100,000 wellness and beauty businesses nationwide ^[11] ^[12]. These moves broaden Affirm’s footprint across retail, home improvement, and wellness sectors.
Analyst Sentiment & Forecasts: Wall Street has grown more bullish on Affirm. In fact, analysts recently raised the average 12-month price target to $87, up 22% from ~$71 prior ^[13]. Targets range from ~$70 on the low end to $108 high ^[14]. Big names are optimistic: JPMorgan reiterated an Overweight rating and lifted its target to $94, noting Affirm’s record GMV growth and guidance that beat expectations on key metrics ^[15] ^[16]. Truist Securities likewise hiked its target to $95 (Buy). In total, Affirm carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus with ~18 Buy ratings vs 11 Holds ^[17]. Still, a few analysts urge caution given rising competition and Affirm’s rich valuation (the stock’s market cap hovers ~$27B ^[18]).
Industry & Competition: Affirm is a leader in the booming Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) arena, but faces intensifying competition. Klarna’s recent IPO (Sept 2025) valued the Swedish BNPL rival at ~$15–19B ^[19], underscoring the sector’s growth. Tech giants are encroaching too: Apple’s Pay Later and PayPal’s BNPL offerings are expanding, and even PayPal’s CEO highlighted BNPL as a key growth driver amid Klarna’s debut ^[20]. Despite the crowded field, Affirm’s exclusive partnerships (e.g. with Amazon, Shopify), its real-time underwriting tech, and a no-late-fee model give it a competitive edge. The company’s focus on 0% APR loans (funded by merchants) has been a double-edged sword – driving user growth though with slimmer margins, but executives insist these promotional plans are “still profitable” in the long run by converting new users into repeat customers (per the earnings call commentary).
Outlook: Looking ahead, Affirm issued strong guidance for fiscal 2026. It forecasts Q1 FY2026 revenue of $855–$885M and GMV $10.1–$10.4B ^[21], and projects full-year GMV to exceed $46B (vs ~$39B in FY25) ^[22]. Adjusted operating margins are expected to improve to ~26%+ ^[23], signaling a focus on profitable growth. Some analysts note that Affirm’s full-year earnings may still be near breakeven (MarketBeat consensus sees a slight loss for FY26 ^[24]), as the company reinvests for growth. However, management has emphasized a pivot to “profitability from now on” and maintaining discipline on credit quality and expenses. Overall, the growth trajectory remains robust – Affirm’s active merchants jumped 24% to 377,000, and repeat transactions are soaring ^[25] – but sustaining profits will be key.

Stock Price & Recent Performance

After a strong rally through mid-2025, Affirm’s stock has experienced whiplash in recent days. Shares of AFRM were trading around $82–$83 on September 24, 2025, off about 8% from the prior week’s high ^[26]. The pullback was largely sparked by an insider sale disclosure (more on that below) and some broader market turbulence. Despite this dip, Affirm’s stock is still up dramatically year-to-date (roughly +38% YTD as of late September ^[27]) and not far from its 52-week peak near $92–$100 ^[28] ^[29].

Just weeks earlier, bullish momentum sent AFRM surging. The stock hit new highs in mid-September, fueled by a one-two punch of stellar earnings and optimism around new partnerships. On August 29, shares jumped 17% in a single day after Affirm’s blowout quarterly report and first-ever profit (sending AFRM into the high-$80s) ^[30] ^[31]. By mid-September, the stock briefly touched the $90s, bringing its 2025 gain to over 50%. This marked a remarkable turnaround from 2022’s doldrums – though it also meant high expectations were baked into the price.

However, the volatility that BNPL stocks are known for has returned. On Tuesday Sept 23, AFRM tumbled 8.2% in one session ^[32], its worst drop in months, after revelations of insider selling unsettled investors. The slide erased about $2 billion in market value, reminding shareholders that this is still a high-beta, sentiment-driven stock (Affirm’s 1-year beta is 3.6, reflecting outsized swings ^[33]). Some broader factors contributed – that afternoon, Fed Chair Powell’s cautious comments sparked a market pullback, which compounded Affirm’s decline. By Sept 24, the stock stabilized in the low-$80s, as bargain hunters weighed the news.

Contextualizing the price: Even after the dip, AFRM is trading near levels last seen in early 2022, showcasing a major recovery. At ~$83, the stock is nearly triple its 52-week low of ~$30 ^[34] (hit during late-2022’s tech selloff). Its market capitalization sits around $27 billion ^[35], which actually eclipses the ~$15–19B valuation of Klarna’s IPO (Affirm’s closest rival) ^[36]. That signals that investors currently value Affirm as the premier BNPL pure-play in U.S. markets. Price-wise, AFRM now trades at roughly 6.5x forward sales, a rich multiple reflecting high growth and improving margins – but also leaving little room for disappointment.

Going forward, traders should expect elevated volatility to persist. As StockStory noted, Affirm has had “56 moves greater than 5% over the last year,” underlining its susceptibility to news-driven swings ^[37]. Catalysts on the horizon (like economic data, earnings, or competitor news) could easily send AFRM swinging again. Long-term investors, meanwhile, are focusing on the bigger picture trend: Affirm’s stock is rebounding on newfound profitability and execution, albeit with occasional speed-bumps.

Blockbuster Earnings Mark a Turning Point

The recent quarter proved to be a breakout moment for Affirm financially. On August 28, the company reported fourth fiscal quarter 2025 results that handily beat Wall Street’s expectations and, importantly, showed GAAP profitability for the first time as a public company ^[38]. This was a major milestone in Affirm’s path to sustainable growth.

By the numbers: Affirm’s Q4 FY25 (Apr–Jun 2025) revenue was $876.4 million, up 32.9% year-over-year ^[39] and above the $834–$845M guidance range. This 33% growth was driven by surging BNPL usage:

Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): $10.4 billion for the quarter, up 43% YoY ^[40]. This blew past management’s $9.4–$9.7B forecast, marking the first quarter since pre-pandemic that GMV growth topped 40% ^[41]. The upside came from strength with Affirm’s largest merchant partners (like Amazon), higher uptake of 0% APR installment offers, and robust repeat usage via the Affirm app and card ^[42] ^[43].
Active Consumers: Although Q4 user metrics weren’t explicitly in this summary, Affirm ended FY25 with approximately 16.5 million active consumers (per prior reports), with repeat transactions comprising ~85% of volume – indicating strong customer loyalty and frequency.
Transactions: 37.5 million transactions were processed in the quarter, a 52% YoY increase, reflecting more users using Affirm more often ^[44].

On the profitability side, Affirm surprised even the optimists:

Earnings: Net income was $69.2 million (GAAP) versus a loss of $45.1M in the year-ago quarter ^[45]. Earnings per share came in at +$0.20, a sharp swing from -$0.14 and well above the $0.11 consensus estimate ^[46]. This beat turned many bears into believers, as one MarketBeat headline put it, by proving Affirm can make money ^[47].
Operating Margin: Adjusted operating income hit $237M, soaring +58% YoY, with a 27% adjusted operating margin – exceeding the 23–25% guidance ^[48]. Even on a GAAP basis, operating income was $58M (versus a loss of $73.5M last year) ^[49]. This indicates significant operating leverage, as revenue growth far outpaced expense growth (opex was up only ~12% YoY ^[50] thanks in part to cost controls and a 41% drop in marketing spend).
Credit metrics: Provision for credit losses did rise 33% to $156.6M ^[51], reflecting growth in loans and macro factors, but remained proportional to the lending growth. Notably, Affirm has been managing credit risk carefully – its delinquency rates have stabilized despite a mixed economy, aided by its focus on prime borrowers and ability to adjust approval criteria quickly via its real-time underwriting platform (often touted as a tech advantage).

The earnings announcement was accompanied by a confident tone from management. Founder/CEO Max Levchin highlighted that during FY2025, Affirm expanded its merchant network, increased transaction frequency, and prioritized “excellent credit performance,” all while sticking to a profitability roadmap ^[52]. “This consistent execution led Affirm to achieve operating income profitability in FQ4’25 – right on the schedule we committed to a year ago,” Levchin wrote in his shareholder letter ^[53]. In other words, a year ago Affirm promised investors it would reach break-even on an operating basis by this time – and it delivered. This credibility boost has strengthened investor trust in the team’s ability to balance growth with the bottom line.

Wall Street responded with upgrades and applause. The stock’s 17% spike post-earnings was a clear vote of confidence. JPMorgan analysts, raising their target price to $94, noted that Affirm’s guidance was stronger than expected across most metrics, and that GMV growth hitting record levels was a very positive surprise ^[54]. Market observers also pointed out that Affirm’s operating metrics (revenue, GMV, transactions) all hit record highs, while expenses grew much more slowly – a recipe for ongoing profitability if sustained.

One slight caution in the earnings release was the Q1 and FY26 outlook (detailed in the Outlook section below), which some saw as just in-line with expectations rather than a huge beat. Affirm guided Q1 revenue at a ~$870M midpoint (just a hair below consensus ~$882M ^[55]) and FY26 GMV a bit shy of some aggressive estimates ^[56]. This perhaps tempered some of the post-earnings euphoria. Nonetheless, the overall picture is that Affirm’s financial trend is markedly improving, with growth + margin expansion happening together – a powerful combination.

Insider Selling & Investor Sentiment

In the midst of Affirm’s fundamental upswing, news of insider stock sales injected some uncertainty. On September 23, an SEC filing made headlines: Affirm’s co-founder and CEO, Max Levchin, filed a notice to sell 651,713 shares of AFRM (worth over $58 million) ^[57]. This Form 144 filing (dated Sept 22) was a signal that Levchin intended to unload a significant chunk of his holdings. Perhaps more concerning to investors, the filing revealed this wasn’t an isolated sale – it noted Levchin had already sold ~$54 million worth of shares in the past month across three separate transactions ^[58].

Such sizeable insider selling from the figurehead of the company raised eyebrows. Typically, when a founder/CEO cashes out a large position, the market can read it as a lack of confidence in the stock’s near-term upside or an indication that the share price may have peaked. As Yahoo Finance reported, “large sales by key insiders might suggest [they believe] the stock’s value has peaked,” and consistent selling by a founder can weigh on investor sentiment ^[59]. In Affirm’s case, Levchin remains a major shareholder (even after these sales he owns a considerable stake), but the timing and scale of his selling did cause some knee-jerk selling pressure on AFRM.

It’s worth noting that insiders sell for many reasons (diversification, tax obligations, personal liquidity) and Levchin’s moves were likely part of a pre-arranged plan – indeed, executives often set up 10b5-1 trading plans to systematically sell shares. The company hasn’t indicated any operational reason for the sales. Still, for a growth stock that trades heavily on confidence, the optics weren’t ideal. The stock’s 3% drop in the morning of Sept 23 immediately following the news ^[60] snowballed to an 8% drop by day’s end, illustrating how sensitive the market is to sentiment.

Outside of Levchin, other insiders have trimmed holdings as well. CFO Rob O’Hare sold ~31,400 shares on Sept 2 at ~$83.30 (about $2.6M worth) ^[61]. Levchin himself had an earlier sale of ~499,000 shares on Aug 28 at ~$80 (around $40M) ^[62] – notably, that sale occurred the same day as the earnings release, when the stock spiked (a savvy bit of timing, presumably under a trading plan). In total, insiders sold ~1.27 million shares (~$102M) over the past quarter ^[63]. Insiders still retain roughly 11.8% ownership of Affirm ^[64], but clearly some have taken the opportunity of the stock’s big 2025 rally to realize gains.

The key question for investors: Do these insider sales signal anything fundamentally wrong, or just normal profit-taking? At present, most analysts aren’t interpreting the sales as a red flag on Affirm’s business. No negative catalyst (e.g. worsening credit metrics or loss of a partner) accompanied the filings – in fact, they came on the heels of positive news. Some observers point out that Levchin has been selling in measured amounts and still has plenty of skin in the game. Additionally, the sales were disclosed transparently (via required SEC filings), not hidden.

Nonetheless, in the short term the insider selling has likely contributed to stock price resistance around the high-$80s to $90. It may impose a psychological ceiling if investors suspect more selling will occur on rallies. Going forward, clarity from management could help; for example, if these were part of a planned program, Affirm might communicate that. Absent that, the best cure will be continued strong results – robust performance can overcome insider jitters. As one market commentator put it, “the market considers this news meaningful but not fundamentally business-changing” ^[65] – hence the stock drop, but not a collapse. Long-term, what will matter is whether Affirm can keep executing (and whether Levchin’s sales indeed prove to be just routine monetization rather than prescient timing).

Strategic Moves: Partnerships and Expansion

Affirm’s recent strategic initiatives show a company aggressively extending its reach – both online and in the physical world, and into new industry verticals. In September 2025, Affirm announced a series of partnerships that management dubbed a “trifecta” of expansions across retail, home services, and wellness.

Apple Pay In-Store Integration: Perhaps the most high-profile move was Affirm’s integration with Apple Pay for in-store purchases. Effective September 15, U.S. iPhone users can now choose Affirm’s pay-over-time plans when checking out in brick-and-mortar stores via Apple Pay ^[66]. This builds on Affirm’s existing role in Apple’s online checkout (introduced in 2022), but significantly widens Affirm’s presence to physical retail. Shoppers simply add Affirm in their Apple Wallet and can split eligible purchases into biweekly or monthly installments (including 0% APR options) at any merchant that accepts Apple Pay ^[67] ^[68]. Affirm’s SVP of Product Vishal Kapoor highlighted that this gives Apple Pay users “added flexibility and transparency at even more checkouts” ^[69] – whether it’s the grocery store, a clothing boutique, or other everyday scenarios. For Affirm, this partnership taps into Apple Pay’s massive user base and $4+ trillion of annual card spend, potentially unlocking a $12B+ growth opportunity if even a small fraction of Apple Pay purchases convert to BNPL ^[70] ^[71]. Evercore ISI analysts cheered the move, seeing a significant GMV boost as Affirm bridges the gap between digital and in-person spending ^[72]. In short, Affirm is embedding itself where the shoppers are – now not just online, but in the real world via a seamless mobile experience.
ServiceTitan Partnership (Home Services/Trades): On Sept 16, Affirm announced a multi-year partnership with ServiceTitan, a leading software platform used by home service contractors (plumbers, HVAC, electricians, etc.) ^[73]. For the first time, the “trades” industry will have BNPL financing integrated into its billing. ServiceTitan will embed Affirm’s flexible payment options into its digital payments system used by thousands of contractors ^[74]. This means when a homeowner gets a big repair bill – say a $5,000 furnace replacement – they can opt to pay with Affirm over time instead of shelling out upfront. It’s a win-win: consumers get budget flexibility (helping tackle the ~$8,800 average annual home improvement cost ^[75]), and contractors can close more sales by offering financing, without carrying the credit risk. ServiceTitan’s fintech VP noted this aligns with their values, giving customers a “responsible way to spread out costs of essential services” with transparency ^[76]. For Affirm, this opens a new high-ticket use case (home repairs) and taps into the huge home services market. It’s a savvy expansion beyond retail into a sector where BNPL was not widely available until now.
Vagaro Partnership (Wellness/Beauty): Rounding out the week’s news, Affirm also teamed up with Vagaro on Sept 16 ^[77]. Vagaro is a popular platform for ~100,000 businesses in the beauty, wellness, and fitness space (think salons, spas, yoga studios, gyms). Through this partnership, those businesses can now offer Affirm at checkout (online or in-person) for services like haircuts, massages, or gym memberships ^[78] ^[79]. Customers might, for example, finance a pricey spa package or personal training sessions in installments, often at 0% APR promotions. This move brings Affirm into the booming health & wellness market (projected $3.7T by 2034) ^[80] ^[81]. It also aligns with post-pandemic trends of consumers investing in self-care, and it helps small businesses attract clients who might appreciate a pay-over-time option. Vagaro’s CEO praised Affirm’s “commitment to trust and transparency” as a natural fit ^[82], and Affirm’s CRO projected that flexible payments will help these businesses capture more growth as the wellness sector expands ^[83]. Strategically, this partnership deepens Affirm’s penetration into everyday services, beyond merchandise.

Collectively, these partnerships demonstrate Affirm’s growth strategy: integrate wherever consumers spend money, and do so in a way that offers value to merchants. Affirm isn’t just chasing volume; it pitches that its presence boosts sales for partners. (For instance, merchants often report higher conversion and average order values when offering Affirm at checkout.) By adding Apple Pay, ServiceTitan, and Vagaro, Affirm is widening its funnel of potential users and ensuring it doesn’t miss out on key verticals.

It’s also notable that Affirm continues to focus on zero-percent APR financing, funded by merchant subsidies, as a carrot for consumers. In the Apple, ServiceTitan, and Vagaro rollouts, Affirm highlighted no hidden or late fees and the availability of 0% plans ^[84] ^[85]. This consumer-friendly approach is a differentiator versus credit cards. The flip side is that Affirm must ensure these 0% loans (which generate merchant fees but no interest from users) are sustainable. So far, Affirm says yes – these loans are “still profitable” because merchants effectively pay for them, and they drive customer adoption of Affirm’s broader platform ^[86]. It’s a strategy of land-and-expand: acquire users via an attractive 0% offer at a merchant, then potentially earn interest from those users on other purchases down the line.

Overall, the market has reacted positively to Affirm’s strategic moves. Analysts see these partnerships as shoring up Affirm’s competitive moat. Each deal extends Affirm’s network effects (more merchants → more consumers → more data → better underwriting). And importantly, it helps Affirm keep growth humming even as rivals proliferate. By being first to embed in certain platforms (like ServiceTitan, Vagaro), Affirm gains an early-mover advantage that competitors might find hard to dislodge, especially if merchants see tangible benefits.

Competitive Landscape & Industry Context

The Buy Now, Pay Later industry has exploded in scale – and competition – over recent years, and Affirm sits at the heart of this fintech revolution. Investors need to view Affirm’s prospects in light of the broader BNPL and digital payments arena, which is undergoing rapid developments:

Key competitors and dynamics:

Klarna: The Swedish BNPL giant (and arguably Affirm’s top international rival) made waves with its U.S. IPO in September 2025. Klarna’s IPO priced at $40/share for a ~$15 billion valuation ^[87] – a steep drop from its peak $45B private valuation in 2021, but its stock popped ~15% on debut amid BNPL hype ^[88]. Klarna is known for its ubiquity in Europe and a strong Pay-in-4 product. Its public listing brings more transparency to the BNPL space and could ratchet up competitive pressure in the U.S. if Klarna uses newfound capital to push promotions or expand partnerships. Initially, news of Klarna’s IPO plans in early September even knocked Affirm’s stock down ~6% ^[89], as investors mulled intensifying competition. However, many analysts note that the market is big enough for multiple winners – and Affirm’s higher valuation (>$25B vs Klarna $15B) suggests investors see it as the leader in the U.S. market. Indeed, Affirm’s revenue growth and profitability are now outpacing Klarna’s, which may give it an edge. Still, Klarna’s public status means BNPL pricing and consumer credit trends will be closely watched across the industry, and Affirm will need to stay on its toes.
Apple Pay Later: Tech behemoth Apple entered the BNPL fray by launching Apple Pay Later in 2023, offering iPhone users interest-free split payments for online purchases. While still limited in scale (and U.S.-only), Apple’s move was a wake-up call – as one of the world’s largest companies with deep pockets, Apple can integrate Pay Later into millions of devices effortlessly. Notably, Affirm’s partnership with Apple (for Apple Pay in-store) indicates a coopetition approach: Affirm is working with Apple in one domain even as Apple develops its own BNPL solution. Why would Apple allow Affirm? Likely because Affirm offers longer-term installments and a full credit platform, complementing Apple’s shorter-term Pay Later product. Nonetheless, over time, if Apple expands aggressively, it could disintermediate some of Affirm’s user interface on Apple devices. For now, though, Apple’s entry has arguably validated BNPL (bringing it into the mainstream) more than it has hurt incumbents. Affirm’s job will be to remain the preferred BNPL option at key merchants and for high-value tickets that Apple’s service doesn’t cover.
PayPal (and other fintechs):PayPal, a payments giant, has its own BNPL offering (“Pay in 4”) and reported strong growth in usage. PayPal’s CEO recently affirmed BNPL is a “growth driver” for them ^[90], and PayPal has the advantage of 400M users and integration into countless online stores. However, PayPal’s BNPL is more of a feature, whereas Affirm is a dedicated platform with deeper lending capabilities (loans up to 60 months, etc.). There are also players like Afterpay (owned by Block/Square), Zip, Sezzle, and others carving niches. The competitive field is crowded, but so far Affirm has differentiated itself by focusing on prime credit consumers (higher average FICO scores), longer-duration financing (not just 4-pay), and big-ticket partnerships (Amazon, Shopify, Peloton, etc.). This has helped Affirm avoid a pure race-to-the-bottom on fees and loan terms.
Credit Cards & Banks: BNPL’s rise has prompted incumbent banks to adapt. Many credit card issuers now offer installment plans on existing credit lines (e.g. Amex Plan It, Chase My Chase Plan) – effectively BNPL-like options on credit cards. While these compete for the same consumer installment dollars, Affirm counters that its model is more transparent (no revolving debt or compounding interest). With interest rates high, Affirm’s 0% or fixed-rate loans can be appealing versus a 20% APR card. Banks are also tiptoeing in via partnerships (e.g. many banks fund BNPL loans behind the scenes). Affirm’s challenge is to continue proving its value proposition over credit cards, especially as regulators scrutinize BNPL. The CFPB has raised some concerns about BNPL (around consumer debt accumulation and lack of uniform disclosures), so Affirm and peers may eventually face regulatory guidelines more akin to credit cards. Affirm, which never charges late fees and touts its transparency, could likely navigate such rules, but regulation remains a wildcard in the industry landscape.

In summary, Affirm operates in a hotly contested arena, but it has carved out a leading position in North America. Its partnerships with the likes of Amazon (exclusive BNPL provider since 2021), Shopify, and now platforms like ServiceTitan/Vagaro, give it distribution and scale advantages. The recent Klarna IPO and moves by Apple/PayPal underscore that BNPL is here to stay – and growing. Indeed, even in a high interest rate environment, consumer demand for split-pay options remains robust (often seen as a budgeting tool). Affirm’s latest results show BNPL usage can surge without a spike in defaults, suggesting the model can be resilient through economic cycles if managed prudently.

One external factor to monitor is the macro economy: If inflation, interest rates, or employment shift, it could impact consumer spending and credit performance. For example, Affirm’s funding costs have risen with interest rates, but it has passed on rates or adjusted terms accordingly. So far, credit metrics have been stable, but a downturn could test BNPL providers’ underwriting rigor. Investors seem comforted that Affirm’s average customer is higher income than some competitors’ and that Affirm leverages data (including its partnership with Cross River Bank and others) to manage risk. The company’s AI-driven underwriting was even highlighted as a differentiator by Zacks analysts ^[91].

In the big picture, the fintech convergence of payments and lending is accelerating. Affirm finds itself in a sweet spot of that trend – offering point-of-sale credit in a tech-savvy way that appeals to younger consumers. The BNPL industry is still in “early days” in the U.S., as one CEO commented ^[92], which means substantial growth runway remains. Affirm’s task is to keep its leadership position as the market expands and competitors (old and new) jostle for users.

Analyst Commentary & Forecasts

Wall Street’s view on Affirm has evolved notably in recent months, skewing more bullish as the company proved its profit potential. Here’s a rundown of what financial experts are saying and predicting about AFRM:

Price Targets & Ratings: According to a compilation of 20 analyst opinions in mid-September, the average 12-month price target for AFRM was ~$87, which is about 22% above where the stock traded after earnings ^[93]. This average was revised upward from around $71 previously, reflecting increased optimism following Affirm’s strong quarter. Price targets span a wide range (low ~$70 to high $108 ^[94]), highlighting differing views on how much growth is left. As noted, heavy hitters have high targets: JPMorgan $94 ^[95], Truist $95 ^[96], and Deutsche Bank $78 (which initiated coverage with a Buy rating) ^[97]. The consensus rating is roughly Moderate Buy, with 18 Buys, 11 Holds, and no Sell ratings ^[98]. That said, some firms have cooled a bit: e.g. Zacks Investment Research downgraded AFRM to Hold in August (after a big rally) ^[99], likely on valuation concerns.
Bull Case: Bulls argue that Affirm is at an inflection point – having achieved profitability, it can now expand earnings rapidly on top of strong revenue growth. Many point to the network effects of Affirm’s platform: as more merchants and users join, Affirm gathers more data to refine underwriting, which can lower credit losses and enable further expansion. Morgan Stanley (noted via MarketBeat) has highlighted Affirm’s potential to become a mainstream payments alternative, not unlike how PayPal did in the 2000s, but for credit. Some even compare Affirm’s model to a next-generation Amex or Visa, leveraging technology and millennial preferences (Max Levchin himself mused that Affirm’s goal is to be as trusted as Amex in the long run ^[100]). The secular growth of cashless payments and e-commerce also provide tailwinds. Importantly, the bull case sees Affirm’s take rate (revenue as % of GMV, currently ~8.4% ^[101]) as sustainable or even improvable through new services, and expects credit metrics to remain in check due to Affirm’s prudent approach (the company has moderated loan approvals in subprime segments).
Bear/Cautious Case: More cautious analysts focus on competition and valuation. They note that Affirm’s stock, even after the recent dip, is not cheap on traditional metrics. The forward P/E is sky-high (in the hundreds) because GAAP profits are just starting – meaning the stock’s performance will hinge on delivering rapid earnings growth to justify the price. Bears worry that competitive pressures (like needing to offer 0% loans or higher merchant subsidies to fend off rivals) could squeeze margins. There’s also the risk that consumer credit normalization could increase loss rates – BNPL hasn’t really been tested in a severe recession with high unemployment. If delinquencies were to rise, Affirm might have to boost its loss provisions, hurting earnings. Regulatory overhang is another factor: any move by the CFPB to impose strict rules on BNPL (e.g. treating it more like credit cards) could introduce additional compliance costs or slow user growth. Some analysts also flag concentration risk – for instance, Affirm’s reliance on a few big partners (Amazon was ~18% of its revenue last year ^[102]). If any major partner were to not renew or shift to a competitor, it would be a blow. That said, Affirm has locked in multi-year agreements with key partners (Amazon through 2025, Shopify through 2024+, etc.), so no immediate threats are known.
Quotes & Commentary: We already mentioned JPMorgan’s upbeat note lauding Affirm’s “highest ever” volume growth and better-than-expected outlook ^[103]. Another perspective comes from Canaccord Genuity, whose analysts reportedly reaffirmed a Buy rating ahead of Affirm’s September investor event, saying they see a path to sustainable growth and that Affirm is “demonstrating operating discipline without sacrificing growth” (paraphrased from a StockStory piece). Meanwhile, on the skeptic side, Jim Cramer commented that while he thinks highly of Affirm, “nothing [really] changes until earnings” justify the enthusiasm ^[104] – suggesting that sustained profitability will be the proof in the pudding for long-term investors. Now that Affirm has delivered one profitable quarter, the onus is on it to string together many more.
Estimates: For the current fiscal year 2026, analyst consensus (per Zacks and MarketBeat) is that Affirm will roughly break even on the bottom line – with a small adjusted loss of perhaps -$0.15 to -$0.20 per share ^[105]. Revenue for FY26 is expected around $3.9–$4.0 billion, implying ~20% growth over FY25’s ~$3.3B. Notably, Affirm’s own revenue outlook (8.4% of >$46B GMV ≈ $3.9B) aligns with that ^[106]. So analysts see growth decelerating from the torrid 30-40% range to a still-healthy 20%+, which likely factors in a bit of macro caution and competition. In subsequent years, growth is projected to stabilize in the 20% area, with EPS turning decisively positive in FY27 and ramping up thereafter as operating leverage kicks in. By FY27–28, some forecasts have Affirm earning $1+ per share if all goes well, though visibility that far out is limited.

In summary, expert opinion on Affirm is cautiously optimistic. The company has answered a key question (can it make money?), and now the focus shifts to execution amid competition. Analysts will be watching metrics like take rate, credit loss rates, and operating expense discipline in coming quarters to ensure the profitability trend holds. They’ll also watch user metrics (active customer growth, repeat rates) as a sign of continued demand. So far, the narrative on Wall Street is that Affirm is doing a lot right – it’s in the right places (partnering with huge platforms), at the right time (secular shift to BNPL), and now has a proven business model. As long as those pieces stay intact, many believe the stock can grind higher over the next year. But any stumble on growth or a hint of credit issues could introduce volatility, so investors should stay tuned to the company’s regular updates (including the next earnings and any commentary at fintech conferences or investor days).

Outlook and Conclusion

Affirm’s outlook appears bright, though not without challenges. The company itself struck an upbeat tone in guidance for the new fiscal year:

For FY2026, Affirm expects to exceed $46 billion in GMV (vs ~$35B in FY25), and to maintain a revenue take rate of ~8.4% of GMV ^[107] – which would yield roughly $3.9 billion revenue at the midpoint, about 20% growth YoY. It also forecasts an adjusted operating margin >26% ^[108], slightly above last year’s level, implying that it aims to stay profitable on an operating basis all year.
For the immediate quarter (Q1 FY26), revenue is guided at $855–$885M and GMV $10.1–$10.4B ^[109]. The GMV guide suggests ~30% growth vs Q1 last year, indicating momentum remains strong into the fall season. Notably, the revenue guidance midpoint ($870M) is only a tad below analyst consensus, which the market interpreted as realistic if not conservative.

Beyond the numbers, Affirm’s management emphasizes a focus on profitable growth and scaling responsibly. Max Levchin stated in a post-earnings interview that “profits will be the name of the game from now on” ^[110], signaling a strategic pivot from the “growth at all costs” approach of some past fintech darlings. This doesn’t mean Affirm will stop growing – rather, it will pursue growth avenues (like the new partnerships) that also drive the bottom line, and continue improving automation and credit models to keep costs in check.

A key driver for the outlook is macroeconomic conditions. If consumer spending remains solid (especially during the holiday season), Affirm could see upside, as BNPL is increasingly popular for holiday shopping. Conversely, if inflation or other headwinds hit consumer demand, Affirm’s volumes might moderate. Interest rates too play a role: rising rates increase Affirm’s cost of capital (for funding loans), but Affirm has managed this by adjusting APRs and because a significant portion of its loans are funded by issuing ABS (asset-backed securities) to investors who still have appetite for consumer credit yields. So far, Affirm’s funding channels have been open and diversification into shorter-term loans (which turn over quickly) helps manage interest rate risk.

Investor bottom line: Affirm is no longer just a high-growth story – it’s now a growth and earnings story. The company’s ability to maintain its first profitable quarter as a trend will likely determine stock performance in 2026. The path forward includes executing on those new Apple/ServiceTitan/Vagaro integrations, continuing to land big partnerships (perhaps more in travel or healthcare finance?), and expanding internationally (Affirm has modest presence in Canada and Australia, and could eye Europe or others possibly via partnerships rather than direct competition with Klarna).

Analysts generally foresee robust growth ahead for BNPL usage, with some estimating the BNPL share of U.S. ecommerce payments could double in the next few years. Affirm, as a market leader, is poised to capture a good slice of that – provided it differentiates on trust and tech. The company’s insistence on no late fees and transparent terms could also curry favor if regulators impose standards; Affirm would already be compliant in many respects, potentially making it a preferred partner for merchants wary of regulatory risk.

There are certainly risks: a deteriorating economy or credit crisis could hit Affirm disproportionately, given its loans to consumers. However, with a current ~$1.4 billion cash war chest on the balance sheet and relatively low debt ^[111], Affirm has a solid liquidity cushion. Its high current ratio of 11.5 indicates short-term assets far exceed liabilities ^[112], so it can withstand shocks or fund growth initiatives comfortably for now.

In conclusion, Affirm Holdings, Inc. stands at a pivotal moment in 2025. The company has transitioned from a fast-growing disruptor to a more mature fintech proving its business model’s viability. The stock’s recent rollercoaster – soaring on great news, dipping on insider sales – reflects both the excitement and the caution around its future. Moving ahead, investors will be watching if Affirm can keep up the balancing act: driving strong volume growth (through expansion and partnerships) while maintaining credit quality and widening profitability. If it can, AFRM’s current price may be justified or even have further upside, as some analysts suggest ^[113]. If not, the richly valued stock could be vulnerable.

For now, the narrative is one of momentum: Affirm is riding tailwinds of consumer adoption, posting record numbers, and gaining Wall Street’s nod. As the crucial holiday quarter approaches and with new partnerships coming online, the next few quarters will be telling. Will Affirm continue to “affirm” investors’ faith? The stage is set, and both Wall Street and Main Street will be closely watching this fintech frontrunner’s next moves.

Sources: Financial filings and press releases; BusinessWire and Crowdfund Insider partnership announcements ^[114] ^[115]; StockStory and InsiderMonkey analyst reports ^[116] ^[117]; Investopedia and Zacks earnings coverage ^[118] ^[119]; SEC insider trade disclosures ^[120]; Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance market data.