SoFi Technologies, Inc. saw its market value drop by roughly $1.45 billion on Friday. The stock declined 5.84% to end at $18.06, marking its lowest finish since August 24. Volume totaled 45.5 million shares, lower than the three-month average reported by Yahoo Finance.
NASDAQ: SOFI · latest completed session: August 28, 2026, 16:00 ET
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| 2026 guided revenue midpoint | $4.80bn |
| Market cap / guided revenue | 4.9× |
| Consensus target | $22.42 |
| Implied upside | 24.1% |
| Consensus rating | Hold |
| Metric | Q2 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| GAAP revenue | $1.219bn | +43% |
| Net income | $156.6m | +61% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $357.8m | +44% |
| Members | 15.8m | +35% |
| Products | 24.4m | +42% |
| Technology accounts | 134.8m | −16% |
| Q2 TPV | $486.4bn |
| Q2 transaction-margin dollars | $3.9bn |
| Adj. operating margin | 17.4% |
| 2026 TM-dollar outlook | ≈$15.6bn |
| Year-end savings target | ≈$400m |
| H2 transformation charges | up to $140m |
| Driver | Investor read |
|---|---|
| Bid withdrawal | Premium removed |
| Low multiple | Downside support |
| Margin contraction | Execution burden |
| Branded checkout | Share test |
Third-quarter results must show savings offsetting cloud, fraud and marketing investment. Faster transaction-margin growth would support a rerating; another margin miss could keep PayPal below the abandoned offer price.
Sources: PayPal Q2 2026 results; Reuters reports dated July 28 and August 28, 2026. Company measures include non-GAAP figures.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP net revenue | $1.219B | $854.9M | +43% |
| GAAP net income | $156.6M | $97.3M | +61% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $357.8M | $249.1M | +44% |
| Members | 15.8M | 11.7M | +35% |
| Technology Platform revenue | $84.5M | $109.8M | −23% |
Revenue guidance increased on July 29. EBITDA, net income and EPS guidance stayed unchanged.
Friday's selloff cut roughly $1.4 billion from SoFi's value despite 43% quarterly revenue growth. At about 30 times the unchanged 2026 adjusted EPS guide, faster member and lending growth must now produce a higher per-share profit outlook.
Risk monitor: consumer credit losses, deposit pricing, Technology Platform client concentration and slower fee-based expansion.
NASDAQ: PYPL · stock move and operating reset
Upside: stronger branded checkout, $1.8 billion quarterly free cash flow and a discounted multiple.
Pressure: Apple Pay and Shop Pay competition, margin contraction and limited account growth.
Next dates: ex-dividend September 4; quarterly dividend payment September 25.
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| GAAP revenue | $1.219B | +43% y/y |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $357.8M | +44% y/y |
| Net income | $156.6M | +61% y/y |
| Members | 15.8M | +35% y/y |
| Segment | Revenue | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Lending, adjusted | $711.7M | +59% |
| Financial Services | $466.3M | +29% |
| Technology Platform | $84.5M | −23% |
Galileo's account base fell to 134.8 million after a major client exited. Sequential platform revenue still rose 13%.
| Signal | Reading | Investor meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 revenue guidance | $4.75B–$4.85B | Raised after Q2; midpoint implies 4.9× market-cap-to-sales. |
| Tangible book value | $7.34/share | Friday close equals roughly 2.5× tangible book. |
| Analyst consensus | Hold; $20.02 target | Average upside is 10.9% from Friday's close. |
| Next confirmed event | Sept. 8, 10:50 PDT | CFO fireside chat at Goldman Sachs Communacopia. |
Sources: SoFi Q2 2026 SEC-filed release; StockAnalysis market data and consensus; SoFi investor-relations event notice. Multiples are calculations from disclosed values. Market data timestamp: Aug. 28, 2026, 16:00 EDT.
Fiscal Q4 2026 investor dashboard · Market data at 06:32 EDT, August 28, 2026
RLTC means revenue less transaction costs, Affirm's closest operating measure of transaction economics.
At the $64 billion floor, annual GMV would grow at least 27.6%.
The outlook still requires strong merchant distribution and consumer engagement.
| Metric | Result | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| GMV | $14.06B | +36% |
| Revenue | $1.17B | +33% |
| Revenue less transaction costs | $589M | +39% |
| Active consumers | 27.8M | +21% |
| GAAP operating income | $147.3M | Positive |
Revenue / GMV
8.3%
RLTC / GMV
4.2%
GAAP operating margin
12.6%, up six percentage points
Calculated from reported quarterly figures; rounded. Direct merchant integrations contributed about half of GMV growth.
The rally reflects three simultaneous improvements: 36% payment-volume growth, 39% growth in revenue less transaction costs and a positive 12.6% GAAP operating margin.
The market is rewarding evidence that merchant scale can lift transaction profit faster than volume. The next test is sustaining that spread while fiscal 2027 GMV moves above $64 billion.
25 Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell
34-analyst consensus. The average target implies about 5.7% upside from the $87.51 premarket quote.
30-day delinquency: 2.5%GAAP margin: 12.6%Consumers: 27.8M
The credit metric matters because faster volume growth only creates durable value if losses stay controlled.
Consumer creditFunding costsRate sensitivityMerchant concentrationCompetition
GAAP EPS of $4.62 included a $1.45 billion tax benefit. That boost is not a recurring operating result.
Sources: Affirm fiscal Q4 2026 earnings release and supplement; StockAnalysis premarket quote and analyst consensus; Barron's. U.S. dollars. Calculations may differ due to rounding.
| Metric | Q4 FY25 | Q4 FY26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GMV | $10.4B | $14.1B | +36% |
| Revenue | $876.4M | $1.166B | +33% |
| RLTC | $425.1M | $589.1M | +38.6% |
| GAAP operating income | $58.1M | $147.3M | +153.6% |
| Credit-loss provision | $156.6M | $223.2M | +42.5% |
| FY27 GMV | >$64B |
| FY27 revenue / GMV | ~8.5% |
| FY27 adjusted margin | >30.5% |
| FY27 GAAP margin | >14.5% |
| Analyst mix | 17 Buy / 5 Hold |
| Average target | $93.28 |
| Target upside vs. AH | 10.9% |
Revenue mix from Robinhood’s August 5, 2026, second-quarter release. Subcategories overlap the transaction total and therefore do not sum to total revenue.
| Metric | July 2026 | Month over month | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity notional | $332.8B | −15% | +59% |
| Options contracts | 324.2M | +2% | +66% |
| Crypto notional | $10.9B | −33% | −62% |
| Robinhood App crypto | $4.3B | −38% | −74% |
| Event contracts | 6.1B | −5% | +20× |
| Net deposits | $5.6B | 18% annualized rate | — |
The 76× ratio is a sensitivity marker. It shows how strongly investors linked Tuesday’s Bitcoin move to future trading activity, despite crypto’s small current share of Robinhood revenue.
A durable signal would pair stronger crypto notionals with continued deposit growth. Options, equities and event contracts would need to remain firm.
Bitcoin gave back part of its early rise. HOOD’s 49.64× trailing P/E leaves the shares exposed if activity fails to follow price.
Tokenized stocks expand Base — scale is the next test
Snapshot: Aug. 24, 2026, 10:07 EDT / 16:07 CEST
The tokenized-equity market equals about 11.5% of average USDC held in Coinbase products. Market size is not revenue.
Subscription and services revenue reached $555M in Q2 2026.
Price sits about 18% above the 52-week low and 53% below the high.
Consensus is Buy, yet the wide target band signals high regulatory and cycle risk.
Monday's tokenized-stock launch gives Base a fresh use case alongside a broader crypto-equity rally. The share move was modest, however. Investors are treating the product as long-dated distribution optionality because access excludes the U.S. and the addressable market is still small.
| Metric | Level | M/M | Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platform assets | $355.0B | −4% | +19% |
| Equity notional | $332.8B | −15% | +59% |
| Options contracts | 324.2M | +2% | +66% |
| Crypto notional | $10.9B | −33% | −62% |
| Event contracts | 6.1B | −5% | +20× |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Vs $106.94 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | $115 | +7.5% |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $118 | +10.3% |
| Needham | Buy | $120 | +12.2% |
| Barclays | Overweight | $105 | −1.8% |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | $155 | +44.9% |
The rally prices a regulation-and-tokenization option on top of a diversified earnings base. Crypto was only 7.6% of second-quarter revenue.
| Measure | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus: Buy | $119.82 | +10.9% |
| DBS • Buy | $120 | +11.0% |
| Goldman Sachs • Buy | $118 | +9.2% |
| Cantor • Overweight | $115 | +6.4% |
| Barclays • Overweight | $105 | -2.8% |
| Activity | Scale | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Equity notional, Q2 | $956B | +85% YoY |
| Options contracts, Q2 | 774M | +50% |
| Event contracts, Q2 | 13.6B | >10× |
| Crypto notional, Q2 | $40B | $22B from Bitstamp |
| On-chain equity volume, 2026 | $9B | Small base; +800% YTD reported |
NYSE: CRCL · Investor dashboard
Circle Internet Group · Price captured August 20, 2026, 10:04 EDT (16:04 CEST)
USDC usage grew 21.6 times faster than revenue. Scale is arriving; revenue capture is lagging.
Reserve income was $668m in Q2. This simple scenario applies a 25-basis-point annual yield change to $73.3bn of quarter-end USDC.
The 27-analyst consensus is Buy. Targets span $37 to $243, a sign that assumptions matter more than the average.
| Segment | Q2 revenue | YoY | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lending, adjusted | $711.7M | +59% | Strong |
| Financial Services | $466.3M | +29% | Strong |
| Technology Platform | $84.5M | -23% | Drag |
The bull case works if 51% cross-buy turns customer acquisition into repeat revenue, while cheap deposits protect margins. The bear case is simple: higher marketing, weaker technology revenue and tighter credit absorb the benefit.
Policy beta drove the move. Deposits, options and equities carry the operating case.
July 2026 versus July 2025. Event contracts rose 20-fold, off a much smaller base.
Options generated more than three times crypto revenue. Event contracts overtook both equities and crypto.
| Asset | Premarket move |
|---|---|
| Strategy (MSTR) | +10.0% |
| Coinbase (COIN) | +8.4% |
| Robinhood (HOOD) | +5.0% |
Read-through: HOOD is participating in the policy rally, but less violently than purer crypto exposures. That fits the operating data. The stock still has crypto optionality; the business is no longer only a crypto-volume story.
