NEW YORK, July 28, 2026, 12:01 p.m. EDT
Shares of Robinhood Markets NASDAQ:HOOD dropped 2.6% early in Tuesday’s U.S. trading, ahead of its second-quarter earnings due the following day. The main focus has shifted from increased customer trading activity to whether prediction markets might offset crypto revenue without impacting margins.
Shares were last at $93.17 as of 11:46 a.m. EDT, after earlier falling to $88.22. That session low represented a 7.8% drop. The stock’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio was close to 45.
Robinhood is set to announce results following the market close on Wednesday. The company’s earnings call starts at 5 p.m. EDT.
Projected revenue is seen at $1.21 billion to $1.22 billion, with earnings expected between 39 cents and 41 cents per share. This suggests sales growth of 22%-24%, but earnings per share are forecast to decrease by 2%-7%.
| Second-quarter measure | 2025 actual | 2026 estimate | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $989 million | $1.21 billion-$1.22 billion | up 22% to up 24% |
| Diluted earnings per share | $0.42 | $0.39-$0.41 | down 7% to down 2% |
| Transaction-based revenue | $539 million | $723.6 million | up 34% |
| Crypto transaction revenue | $160 million | $83.5 million | down 48% |
| Other transaction revenue | $48 million | $171 million | up 256% |
The numbers for 2026 represent published projections, not official company guidance. The overall range reflects forecasts from both Zacks and Benzinga; category-specific figures are the Zacks consensus.
The difference is clear. Transaction revenue could increase by 34%, but annual earnings might decline. As a result, investors want to see proof of profit margins rather than just another volume milestone.
Robinhood’s activity filings indicate a significant change in customer trading behavior. As of June 25, equity volume totaled approximately $906.8 billion, already 75% higher than the entire second quarter of 2025.
Options contracts climbed to 729.9 million, marking a 42% increase from the same quarter last year. Robinhood-app crypto volume stood at $17.3 billion, representing a 38% decrease compared to the entire previous-year quarter. The final days of June are expected to further close the gap.
June data is still subject to revisions and has not been audited. The figures do not cover the last five days of the month.
Event contracts accounted for the most pronounced offset. Combined volume for April, May and early June reached approximately 12.3 billion contracts, outpacing the whole first quarter by close to 40%.
However, volume does not equate to revenue. Equity data reflect notional values, whereas event markets tally contracts. Revenue is determined by pricing, incentives, and the mix of products traded.
Zacks projects other transaction revenue will rise to $171 million, up from $48 million. In its first-quarter filing, Robinhood reported $104 million in event-contract revenue separately. Crypto transaction revenue is estimated to decline by almost 48%.
Higher costs may offset gains. Operating expenses for the first quarter increased 18% to $656 million. Robinhood anticipates a $28 million restructuring charge following the elimination of around 290 positions.
Chief Executive Vlad Tenev stated the company had “never been stronger.” He additionally emphasized the need for a “lean, hyper-focused team.” Reuters
Robinhood Chain launched on July 1, following the end of the quarter. Crypto head Johann Kerbrat laid out the approach simply, saying the firm was “bringing the best of traditional finance and DeFi together.” The rollout will not impact revenue for the second quarter. Robinhood
Key numbers to be reported on Wednesday include event-contract revenue, customer deposits, and expenses. Investors are expected to monitor margin balances and net interest revenue as well. These results will indicate if earnings quality is benefitting from diversification.
Risks are evident. Event contracts are subject to lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny at the state level. Cryptocurrency remains volatile, and tokenization introduces further legal and execution risks. Ongoing investments may result in elevated expenses following restructuring.
Surpassing revenue forecasts may fall short. Robinhood needs to demonstrate that quicker trading leads to sustained profitability.
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