WASHINGTON, August 7, 2026, 08:06 EDT
- The Senate’s published Friday agenda contains sanctions, nominations and funding votes. It lists no CLARITY Act vote.
- Coinbase generated $292.1 million of stablecoin revenue last quarter. That equaled 23.9% of total revenue.
- Compass Point cut its preliminary 2026 passage estimate to 35% from 55%.
The Senate’s Friday agenda omitted the CLARITY Act, leaving no scheduled vote before lawmakers’ expected departure. The floor plan instead covers Russia sanctions, nominations and a continuing resolution.
That keeps a regulatory discount on Coinbase Global NASDAQ:COIN and other U.S. crypto platforms. Yet the delay is not simply bearish. It also leaves current stablecoin distribution rules unchanged.
At 08:06 EDT, regular U.S. equity trading had not opened. Premarket trading was active. Bitcoin gained about 0.7% near $65,000.
| Company | Aug. 6 close | Daily move | Aug. 7 premarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase Global NASDAQ:COIN | $145.41 | -2.99% | $147.70, +1.57% |
| Circle Internet Group NYSE:CRCL | $63.28 | 0.00% | $64.00, +1.14% |
| Robinhood Markets NASDAQ:HOOD | $90.71 | -2.25% | $91.99, +1.41% |
| Galaxy Digital NASDAQ:GLXY | $19.54 | +2.49% | $20.09, +2.81% |
Prices reflect Google Finance snapshots before the regular market open.
The split was notable. Coinbase and Robinhood fell Thursday, while Circle held flat and Galaxy rose. Friday’s rebound recovered only part of the platform losses.
The stronger investor angle sits in stablecoin economics. Coinbase generated $292.1 million of stablecoin revenue in the second quarter. That equaled 23.9% of its $1.22 billion total revenue.
| Company | Relevant Q2 line | Total reported revenue | Calculated share | Main sensitivity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | Stablecoin revenue: $292.1 million | $1.220 billion | 23.9% | Rates, USDC balances and distribution rules |
| Circle | Reserve income: $668 million | $701 million | 95.3% | Reserve yields, USDC supply and distribution costs |
Shares are calculated from company filings. They are not company guidance.
That 23.9% is not the amount threatened by legislation. Coinbase says rates, USDC balances and product eligibility drive the revenue line. Still, rewards language can change distribution economics at the margin.
Circle’s profile is different. Reserve income supplied 95.3% of reported revenue and reserve income. A 66-basis-point decline in reserve returns offset some growth in average USDC circulation. Distribution and transaction costs reached $412 million.
Circle Chief Executive Jeremy Allaire said results reflected “the current rate environment and a crypto market that has slowed.” USDC circulation still rose 19% to $73.3 billion at quarter-end. Circle
The legislative path remains long. Even a successful Senate vote would not send the measure directly to the White House.
| Legislative gate | Verified position | Investor implication |
|---|---|---|
| Senate Banking Committee | Advanced 15-9 on May 14 | Bipartisan support exists, but remains narrow |
| Senate calendar | Eligible for consideration since June 1 | Leadership must still allot floor time |
| Senate passage | 60 votes required | Further Democratic support is necessary |
| Friday schedule | No CLARITY vote listed | Pre-recess action is now unlikely |
| 2026 passage probability | 35%, preliminary Compass Point estimate | Down from the firm’s prior 55% estimate |
Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott said Thursday: “The good news is we have the time to get it done.” The official Friday schedule nevertheless contained no CLARITY vote. Senate Banking Committee
Two disputes still divide the coalition. Banking groups want tighter limits on interest-like stablecoin rewards. Democrats want stronger ethics rules covering public officials and their digital-asset interests.
A Wall Street Journal editorial argued that the draft still leaves a stablecoin-payment loophole. That is the editorial board’s view, not a settled fact. The Senate text bars yield on idle balances but permits activity-based rewards.
Equity analysts remain broadly positive despite the policy stall. The recommendation mix is most divided at Circle.
| Company | Buy | Hold | Sell | Average 12-month target | Implied upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | 20 | 6 | 2 | $198.78 | 36.7% |
| Circle | 12 | 5 | 3 | $98.24 | 55.3% |
| Robinhood | 14 | 3 | 0 | $123.80 | 36.5% |
| Galaxy Digital | 8 | 1 | 0 | $37.50 | 91.9% |
Against Thursday’s close. Google Finance consensus covers ratings issued during the past three months.
The target ranges remain unusually wide. Circle spans $37 to $175. Coinbase ranges from $95 to $330. Those gaps reflect earnings and policy uncertainty, rather than precise valuation.
The next policy catalyst is a post-recess floor timetable. Investors will also watch whether activity-based rewards survive. Stronger ethics language could be needed to secure enough Democratic votes.
Risks remain two-sided. The Senate can alter its schedule. A later compromise may improve exchange rules while narrowing rewards. Continued delay would preserve current economics but prolong legal uncertainty.
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