Atlassian shares surge 32% on strong cloud forecast, offsetting Data Center slowdown

Atlassian shares surge 32% on strong cloud forecast, offsetting Data Center slowdown

NEW YORK, August 7, 2026, 07:05 EDT

  • The stock was recently quoted at $145.50 in premarket trade, up 32.1%. Regular U.S. trading hours had yet to start.
  • Outlook for fiscal 2027 projects cloud growth at 25.5% and a 17% decrease in Data Center revenue.
  • Bank of America raised its rating on the stock. KeyBanc and Jefferies Financial Group increased their price targets.

Shares of Atlassian Corporation were set to open 32.1% higher at $145.50 ahead of the start of U.S. regular trading on Friday.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:TEAM

The surge came after the company reported strong fourth-quarter results. Revenue surpassed the average analyst estimate by 6.4%, and adjusted earnings exceeded expectations by 24.7%.

Atlassian’s forecast for fiscal 2027 revenue shows a notable investor signal, with cloud projected to increase by 25.5% and Data Center anticipated to decline by 17%.

A rough estimate with the rounded reference shows cloud accounting for 74.5% of projected revenue for next year. This is 7.4 percentage points higher than in fiscal 2026.

Q4 results overview

MetricQ4 FY2026ComparisonInvestor signal
Revenue$1.766 billion$1.660 billion estimate6.4% above; 28% up
Adjusted EPS$1.87$1.50 estimate24.7% above
Cloud revenue$1.213 billion$928 million year earlier31% higher
GAAP operating margin12%Negative 2% year earlier14-point improvement
Remaining obligations$4.817 billion44% yearly riseImproved visibility

Reuters reports company data and analyst forecasts. Reported figures are used to determine percentage surprises.

Cloud accounted for 68.7% of revenue during the quarter. Remaining performance obligations increased by 44%, and the GAAP operating margin stood at 12%.

Chief Executive Mike Cannon-Brookes said, “Q4 closes out a year that proves our long-term strategy is paying off.” Free cash flow for the fiscal year totaled $1.319 billion, generating a 20% margin. Q4 Investor Relations

Atlassian’s deployment revenue bases allow the 13% headline to be reconstructed.

Fiscal 2027 revenue breakdown

DeploymentFY2026 revenueFY2027 growth guidePreliminary FY2027 revenueChangePreliminary mix
Cloud$4.411 billion25.5%$5.535 billion$1.125 billion74.5%
Data Center$1.831 billionMinus 17.0%$1.520 billionDown $311 million20.5%
Marketplace and other$331 million12.0%$370 million$40 million5.0%
Total$6.572 billionRoughly 13.0%$7.425 billion$853 million100%

These initial example figures are derived from approximate company-provided guidance. They do not represent extra forecasts from the company, and actual outcomes might vary.

The decrease in Data Center revenue subtracts approximately $311 million. This partially balances an increase of about $1.164 billion from cloud and marketplace operations.

The slowdown reduces overall company growth by roughly 4.7 percentage points, while the two growing segments add nearly 17.7 points to the total.

Atlassian announced March 28, 2029, as the end-of-life date for relevant Data Center products. The decrease is a result of both controlled migration efforts and client demand.

Short-term outlook came in higher. The first-quarter midpoint of $1.710 billion is roughly 3% higher than analysts’ consensus forecast. Cloud expansion is projected at 28.5%.

AI integration provided a lift. Management reported that companies using Rovo are seeing recurring revenue increase at over double the pace of those not using it. Rovo-driven actions increased by 50% compared to the previous quarter.

Cannon-Brookes intends to make open-market purchases totalling as much as $250 million under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. This amount, based on a price of $145.50 per share, would amount to roughly 1.7 million shares.

Analysts acted early ahead of the market open.

Analyst ratings

Firm and analystRecommendationNew targetPrevious targetUpside from $145.50
Bank of America , Koji IkedaUpgraded to Buy from Neutral$175$10520.3%
KeyBanc, Jason CelinoOverweight, rating unchanged$185$11527.1%
Jefferies Financial Group , Brent ThillBuy, rating unchanged$200$15037.5%

Upside reflects the most recent referenced premarket indication. Analyst moves were released early Friday.

Bank of America’s Ikeda described Atlassian as “an AI beneficiary rather than an AI victim.” Jefferies projected that medium-term revenue could grow by at least 20%. TipRanks

The updated targets maintain further potential gains following the premarket rally. However, the initial test during standard trading hours follows a movement that developed solely ahead of the market open.

Risks: The rally assumes a seamless shift to cloud. For fiscal 2027, the non-GAAP operating margin outlook is 25%, compared to 30% in fiscal 2026, and GAAP margin stands at just 4.5%. Data Center may decline more quickly, and the founder’s buy remains a stated intention, not yet executed.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

How large was Atlassian’s fourth-quarter beat?
Q4 revenue reached $1.766 billion, 6.6% above management’s guidance midpoint. Cloud revenue grew 31%, versus the prior 25.5% target. Non-GAAP earnings reached $1.87 per share, nearly double last year’s $0.98.
Does fiscal 2027 guidance confirm a real slowdown?
Yes, though the revenue mix creates a harsher headline. Atlassian guides FY27 revenue growth to 13%, down from 26%. Cloud growth is guided at 25.5%. Data Center revenue should decline 17%. Subscription ARR growth should slow from 23% to 18%.
Is enterprise demand becoming more durable?
RPO rose 44% to $4.817 billion, faster than 28% revenue growth. Subscription ARR increased 23% to $6.606 billion during the year. That combination improves visibility, though recognition timing still matters.
How much profit survives stock-based compensation?
Q4 GAAP operating margin reached 12%, while non-GAAP reached 36%. Stock-based compensation added back $394 million, equal to 22 margin points. FY27 guidance remains 4.5% GAAP versus 25% non-GAAP. The accounting gap remains material.
Is cash generation keeping pace with growth?
Q4 free cash flow rose 32% to $475 million. Full-year free cash flow fell 7% to $1.319 billion. Atlassian spent $1.800 billion on buybacks and $1.229 billion on acquisitions. Cash ended at $1.240 billion, down from $2.513 billion.
Is AI adoption translating into measurable revenue?
Atlassian’s MCP server and Teamwork Graph CLI passed one million monthly users. Usage more than doubled during the quarter, showing rapid developer engagement. The release disclosed no AI-specific revenue, pricing uplift, or margin contribution. Adoption is clear, but its financial contribution remains unquantified.
Roman Perkowski

Roman Perkowski is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Cracow University of Economics, he previously worked in investment research and corporate finance. His coverage helps readers understand the key forces driving global financial markets and emerging industries. Follow Roman Perkowski on Google News.

AI PORTFOLIO

Top Stock Picks

Today’s highest-ranked model selections.

#1 STRONG BUY

Constellation Energy

NASDAQ: CEG 95 / 100
#2 BUY

AerCap

NYSE: AER 93 / 100
#3 BUY

Walt Disney

NYSE: DIS 92 / 100
#4 ACCUMULATE

AIG

NYSE: AIG 90 / 100
#5 BUY ON PULLBACK

Cheniere Energy

NYSE: LNG 88 / 100
View full portfolio
Editorial model selection. Not personalised advice.
Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI) surges 14% premarket as production boosts lead margin gains
Previous Story

Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI) surges 14% premarket as production boosts lead margin gains

CLARITY Act delay leaves a two-sided stablecoin trade for crypto stocks
Next Story

CLARITY Act delay leaves a two-sided stablecoin trade for crypto stocks