MENLO PARK, California, September 1, 2026, 04:52 EDT — Robinhood shares advanced 2.7% on Tuesday after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock to $150, pointing to the company's product expansion as a key driver.
Company hubNASDAQ:HOOD
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Five-minute prices: Yahoo Finance. As of . Delayed feeds can revise.
The upgrade widens the indicated return from 15.2% to 39.4%.
Rating and targets: StreetInsider. Price: Yahoo Finance. Value figures are estimates based on the $94.23 billion closing market capitalisation.
$1.31 billion total net revenue, up 32% year over year
Source: Robinhood Q2 2026 results. Components may not sum because transaction revenue includes smaller lines.
Revenue mix from Robinhood’s August 5, 2026, second-quarter release. Subcategories overlap the transaction total and therefore do not sum to total revenue.
| Metric | July 2026 | Month over month | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity notional | $332.8B | −15% | +59% |
| Options contracts | 324.2M | +2% | +66% |
| Crypto notional | $10.9B | −33% | −62% |
| Robinhood App crypto | $4.3B | −38% | −74% |
| Event contracts | 6.1B | −5% | +20× |
| Net deposits | $5.6B | 18% annualized rate | — |
The 76× ratio is a sensitivity marker. It shows how strongly investors linked Tuesday’s Bitcoin move to future trading activity, despite crypto’s small current share of Robinhood revenue.
A durable signal would pair stronger crypto notionals with continued deposit growth. Options, equities and event contracts would need to remain firm.
Bitcoin gave back part of its early rise. HOOD’s 49.64× trailing P/E leaves the shares exposed if activity fails to follow price.
| Metric | Level | M/M | Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platform assets | $355.0B | −4% | +19% |
| Equity notional | $332.8B | −15% | +59% |
| Options contracts | 324.2M | +2% | +66% |
| Crypto notional | $10.9B | −33% | −62% |
| Event contracts | 6.1B | −5% | +20× |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Vs $106.94 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | $115 | +7.5% |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $118 | +10.3% |
| Needham | Buy | $120 | +12.2% |
| Barclays | Overweight | $105 | −1.8% |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | $155 | +44.9% |
Coinbase outpaced Bitcoin last week as Binance faced fresh compliance questions. The rally is powerful. The valuation cushion is not.
Indexed from the Aug. 14 close; percent change
Three forces, one crowded trade
Targets compared with the $186.49 close
| Source | View | Target | Upside/downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | Neutral | $142 | -23.9% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | $184 | -1.3% |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | $200 | +7.2% |
| Needham | Buy | $177 | -5.1% |
| S&P Global poll | Buy | $194.97 | +4.5% |
The Dow led a broad repair rally, but every major index still lost ground for the week. Long Treasury yields remain the valuation test; Nvidia and Jackson Hole now set the next direction.
Official Friday closes and weekly changes: AP market close. Percentages are rounded; all figures are historical, not live.
| 10Y Treasury | ≈4.74% | valuation headwind |
|---|---|---|
| 30Y Treasury | ≈5.28% | duration stress |
| WTI crude | ≈$86.85 | inflation/geopolitics |
| Brent crude | ≈$94 | energy support |
| Gold futures | ≈$4,675 | safe-haven bid |
| Dollar index | ≈98.83 | weekly softness |
Historical observations around the Aug. 21 close; rounded and not executable quotes. Source ↗
Rounded historical moves at the Aug. 21 close. Catalysts: market recap ↗
The 10-year stabilizes below 4.75%, Nvidia expectations hold, and Friday’s equal-weight leadership persists. Watch S&P 7,674 as the first acceptance test.
The 30-year retests 5.30%, oil stays near $90 WTI, and semiconductors resume relative weakness. Nasdaq 26,000 is the first round-number stress marker.
NYSE/Nasdaq reopenFirst test of Friday’s rebound and rate-sensitive growth leadership.
July new-home salesHousing demand and mortgage-rate sensitivity. Official schedule; no estimate shown.
Durable goods + personal income/outlaysGrowth, capex and inflation inputs arrive together.
Nvidia Q2 FY2027 resultsCompany says commentary is expected around 16:20; call at 17:00. Consensus, not company guidance: roughly $92.2B revenue and $2.09 adjusted EPS.
Advance economic indicatorsJuly trade, retail and wholesale inventory signals.
Jackson Hole symposiumTheme: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Exact speech times were not yet published in the official calendar.
Marvell earnings callSecond read-through for AI networking and semiconductor demand.
Weekend geopolitical headlines can gap oil, yields and index futures before cash trading resumes. Futures are indications, not qualifying equity trading, and this dashboard does not imply that U.S. stocks are trading now.
Informational only; historical prices may be delayed or rounded.
That matters because crypto produced only 13% of Q2 transaction revenue.
Key test: persistence| Line | Revenue | YoY | Mix |
|---|---|---|---|
| Options | $342M | +29% | 44% |
| Event contracts | $156M | >10× | 20% |
| Equities | $129M | +95% | 17% |
| Crypto | $100M | -38% | 13% |
| Funded customers | 28.4M |
| Platform assets | $369B |
| Gold subscribers | 4.8M |
| Firm | Rating | Target | vs. close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | $105 | -2.9% |
| Cantor | Overweight | $115 | +6.4% |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $118 | +9.1% |
| Needham | Buy | $120 | +11.0% |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | $155 | +43.3% |
① Bitcoin holds Friday's breakout
② Treasury yields after expanded buybacks
③ PCE inflation and Jackson Hole
④ Any Clarity Act progress
| What changed | Current signal | Proof still needed |
|---|---|---|
| Crypto policy | White House pressure for Clarity Act | Passage and durable SEC/CFTC rules |
| Tokenized equities | Public chain + 120-country rollout | Volume, fees and compliant custody |
| Core platform | $21.7B quarterly net deposits | Cross-sell without margin erosion |
| Valuation | 46.8× earnings | Growth fast enough to defend premium |
The rally prices a regulation-and-tokenization option on top of a diversified earnings base. Crypto was only 7.6% of second-quarter revenue.
| Measure | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus: Buy | $119.82 | +10.9% |
| DBS • Buy | $120 | +11.0% |
| Goldman Sachs • Buy | $118 | +9.2% |
| Cantor • Overweight | $115 | +6.4% |
| Barclays • Overweight | $105 | -2.8% |
| Activity | Scale | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Equity notional, Q2 | $956B | +85% YoY |
| Options contracts, Q2 | 774M | +50% |
| Event contracts, Q2 | 13.6B | >10× |
| Crypto notional, Q2 | $40B | $22B from Bitstamp |
| On-chain equity volume, 2026 | $9B | Small base; +800% YTD reported |
A fresh UAE inquiry, MiCA limits and an August 23 sanctions cutoff sharpen the case for regulated crypto-market infrastructure.
Estimated from closing market capitalisation and the August 20 daily move. Correlation does not prove regulatory substitution.
Compliance pressure can redirect marginal flows toward venues with public reporting or established derivatives oversight.
| Company | Price | Market cap | Beta | Latest net margin | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase (COIN) | $172.35 | $45.47B | 3.36 | -31.14% | Highest direct trading beta |
| CME Group (CME) | $270.87 | $97.40B | 0.21 | 61.20% | Regulated derivatives durability |
| Robinhood (HOOD) | $95.10 | $85.50B | 2.35 | — | Retail mix; weaker Thursday signal |
Market data: Google Finance, August 20 close; COIN premarket at August 21, 06:22 EDT. Regulatory sources: Reuters, ESMA and Binance statements reported by The Block. Estimated market-value changes may differ from exchange-calculated figures.
Fidelity’s six-risk framework says AI agents may lift crypto activity without lifting every token. The investable question is where fees, trust and compliance margins land.
Aug. 20, 20:00:02 EDT
Thursday close
Retrieved 05:23 EDT
Market value: $21.24B
One-day moves, August 20. Crypto beta won the session.
Agents optimize for speed, price and compliance. That can route activity toward stablecoin issuers, custodians or closed fintech systems.
Volume ≠ token value Trust becomes a moat Security costs rise| Analyst / firm | View | Target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gautam Chhugani · Bernstein | Buy | $140 | Aug. 6 |
| Jeff Cantwell · Seaport | Buy | $100 | Aug. 17 |
| Bryan Bergin · TD Cowen | Buy | $87 | Aug. 12 |
| Brian Bedell · Deutsche Bank | Hold | $58 | Aug. 6 |
| James Faucette · Morgan Stanley | Sell | $37 | Aug. 6 |
| Rail choice Public chain or permissioned system? |
| Fee owner Token holders, issuer or custodian? |
| FIDD adoption Fidelity’s own stablecoin launched Feb. 4. |
| Rate sensitivity Reserve income remains central to stablecoin economics. |
The rally priced asset beta. Fidelity’s warning asks who owns the margin.
Fidelity Investments is privately held. Listed reference exposures: Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (BATS:FBTC), Fidelity Ethereum Fund (BATS:FETH), Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL), Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT).
Policy beta drove the move. Deposits, options and equities carry the operating case.
July 2026 versus July 2025. Event contracts rose 20-fold, off a much smaller base.
Options generated more than three times crypto revenue. Event contracts overtook both equities and crypto.
| Asset | Premarket move |
|---|---|
| Strategy (MSTR) | +10.0% |
| Coinbase (COIN) | +8.4% |
| Robinhood (HOOD) | +5.0% |
Read-through: HOOD is participating in the policy rally, but less violently than purer crypto exposures. That fits the operating data. The stock still has crypto optionality; the business is no longer only a crypto-volume story.
