AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) Stock: 52‑Week High, 13%+ Yield and 2026 Outlook

As of the weekend of December 7, 2025, AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC) sits near a fresh 52‑week high around $10.6 per share, after touching roughly $10.65 on December 5. Over the last year the stock has delivered around 25–30% total return, yet still offers a double‑digit dividend yield near 13–14%, making it one of the most talked‑about high‑income plays heading into 2026. ^[1]

At the same time, Wall Street’s view is nuanced: consensus 12‑month price targets now sit slightly below the current share price, Zacks assigns the stock a Rank #4 (Sell), and several research houses continue to flag dividend sustainability and interest‑rate risk. ^[2]

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analyses up to December 7, 2025, to help you understand where AGNC stands right now. (Nothing here is personal investment advice.)

1. What AGNC Investment Corp Actually Does

AGNC Investment Corp is an internally managed real estate investment trust (REIT) that provides private capital to the U.S. housing market. The company:

Invests primarily in Agency residential mortgage‑backed securities (Agency RMBS) whose principal and interest are guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. ^[3]
Finances those assets on a leveraged basis, mainly through repurchase agreements, and uses derivatives to hedge interest‑rate risk. ^[4]
Targets “favorable long‑term stockholder returns with a substantial yield component,” effectively positioning itself as a high‑income, agency‑focused mortgage REIT. ^[5]

Because AGNC owns securities, not physical properties, it behaves very differently from equity REITs such as Realty Income or apartment landlords. Its results are driven by:

The spread between yields on its MBS assets and its short‑term funding costs
The level and shape of the interest‑rate curve
Changes in the market value of Agency MBS (which affect book value per share)

Credit risk is relatively low thanks to the government and GSE guarantees, but interest‑rate and spread volatility can be brutal – which is why AGNC tends to have a high yield and a volatile share price. ^[6]

2. December 2025 Stock Performance: New 52‑Week High

Price action

On December 5, 2025, AGNC closed around $10.62 on the Nasdaq, with intraday trades near $10.65–$10.66, setting a new 52‑week high. ^[7]
An Investing.com recap notes the stock delivered about 27.6% total return over the last 12 months and roughly 30.6% year‑to‑date, underscoring a strong rebound from the rates‑driven selloff of prior years. ^[8]
MarketBeat’s coverage similarly highlights the fresh 1‑year high, with AGNC trading around $10.63 in heavy volume and up about 1.5% on the day of the breakout. ^[9]

Zacks‑authored research published on Nasdaq in late November pointed out that AGNC’s share price had already outpaced its mortgage REIT peers over the past year as investors rotated back into income plays amid falling mortgage rates. ^[10]

Valuation snapshot

Recent analyses paint a picture of a stock that is no longer “dirt cheap”:

Zacks estimates AGNC trades around 1.16× trailing price‑to‑book, versus roughly 0.97× for the broader mortgage REIT group, and about 1.2× price‑to‑tangible book versus a 1.0× sector norm. ^[11]
A Zacks/TradingView note at mid‑November pegs AGNC’s dividend yield at ~14.2%, versus an mREIT industry average around 12.7%, and comments that the stock appears expensive on book‑value metrics despite its high income. ^[12]

In short, the price has caught up to the story: AGNC has rerated from distressed levels to a mild premium to peers, while still offering a very high yield.

3. Dividend: 0.12 USD per Month and a 13–14% Yield

Current payout

AGNC is best known for its monthly dividend:

On November 12, 2025, the board declared a $0.12 per share cash dividend for November, payable December 9, 2025 to shareholders of record as of November 28, 2025. ^[13]
At the current share price near $10.6, that works out to an annualized dividend of $1.44 and a forward yield of about 13.5–13.7%, in line with estimates from Yahoo Finance, DividendMax and other trackers. ^[14]
AGNC has paid dividends for roughly 18 consecutive years, according to InvestingPro data cited by Investing.com’s December 5 report. ^[15]

Kiplinger’s November list of top monthly dividend stocks notes AGNC’s yield around 14.1% and emphasizes that, unlike landlords, mortgage REITs such as AGNC are “designed to be income vehicles,” with capital gains a secondary consideration. ^[16]

How safe is the payout?

This is where views diverge:

MarketBeat’s December 6 article calculates a payout ratio above 200% (about 214.9%), based on GAAP earnings, calling out sustainability concerns even as the yield looks extremely attractive. ^[17]
A Zacks/TradingView piece titled “Does AGNC Investment’s 14.2% Dividend Yield Look Sustainable?” argues that strong liquidity of roughly $7.2 billion, a $1 billion share‑repurchase authorization running through 2026, and easing funding pressures help support the dividend policy for now. ^[18]
The same analysis notes AGNC’s forward price‑to‑tangible‑book multiple of ~1.2× and assigns the stock a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), signaling caution despite the high yield. ^[19]

Kiplinger and SureDividend both stress that mortgage REIT dividends are inherently cyclical. If the yield curve were to invert again or spreads blow out, AGNC could be forced to trim the payout, though even a reduced dividend would likely remain high versus most equities. ^[20]

4. Q3 2025 Results: Book Value Rebuild and Positive Economic Return

AGNC’s third‑quarter 2025 report – covering the period ended September 30, 2025 – is central to understanding why the stock has rallied.

Headline numbers

From the company’s Form 10‑Q and related summaries: ^[21]

Interest income: about $903 million for Q3 2025.
Net interest income:$148 million, a big improvement from a net interest expense in the prior‑year quarter.
Net income:$806 million, or $0.72 per diluted common share.
Dividends declared:$0.36 per common share for the quarter (three monthly payments of $0.12).
Comprehensive income available to common shareholders: about $825 million.
Total assets: roughly $109 billion; stockholders’ equity of about $11.4 billion.

SureDividend’s deep dive adds color that management itself emphasizes: ^[22]

Comprehensive income of $0.78 per common share.
Economic return on tangible common equity of 10.6% for the quarter, consisting of $0.36 in dividends plus a $0.47 increase in tangible book value per share.
Tangible net book value per share increased to roughly $9.84.
Net spread and dollar‑roll income of $0.35 per share, slightly lower than earlier due to maturing swaps and timing of new capital deployment.
Liquidity around $7.2 billion, equivalent to about two‑thirds of tangible equity.

Third‑party coverage generally characterizes Q3 as “mixed but improving”: AGNC missed the EPS consensus by a few cents (around $0.35 versus a $0.38 expectation) but beat revenue estimates and showed a solid rebound in net interest margins and book value as agency MBS spreads stabilized. ^[23]

From an income‑investor standpoint, the important takeaway is that GAAP earnings and economic return covered the dividend in Q3, and book value rose, reversing some of the prior years’ damage.

5. Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Quant Forecasts

Street ratings

Across major data providers, the Street’s stance is cautiously constructive:

MarketBeat aggregates 10 analysts with 6 Buy and 4 Hold ratings, calling AGNC a “Moderate Buy” with an average 12‑month price target around $10.18 (range roughly $9.75–$11.00). That implies low‑single‑digit downside from the current price. ^[24]
StockAnalysis finds a similar picture: about 10 analysts, overall Buy rating, and a consensus target near $10.16 – again just below where the stock trades now. ^[25]
Public.com reports a Buy consensus from seven analysts as of early December 2025, in line with the broader data. ^[26]

In contrast, Zacks focuses more heavily on earnings momentum and currently assigns AGNC a Rank #4 (Sell). Zacks’ November research notes that the consensus EPS projections for 2025 and 2026 have been flat in recent weeks, with estimates implying an ~18.6% earnings decline in 2025 followed by only ~1.3% growth in 2026. ^[27]

Numerical forecasts

A sampling of recent price‑target and model forecasts shows limited expected price appreciation:

MarketBeat & Zacks price‑target pages both cluster around $10–$10.2 average 12‑month targets, with most analysts in a $9–$11 band. ^[28]
Algorithmic and quant sites such as PandaForecast and CoinCodex project AGNC hovering in the $10–$11 range over the next year, with relatively modest volatility and no explosive upside scenario. ^[29]

In other words, the consensus view is that most of AGNC’s near‑term price upside has already been realized after the 2025 rally. The main part of the return is expected to come from the dividend, not capital gains, at least under base‑case assumptions.

6. Macro Backdrop: Fed Cuts and Mortgage Rates

Mortgage REITs like AGNC live and die by the level and direction of interest rates.

The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00% at its October 29, 2025 meeting, following a similar 25‑basis‑point cut in September. ^[30]
Markets are now pricing in another cut at the December FOMC meeting, with odds around 85–90% according to futures‑based tools tracked by Morningstar and others. ^[31]
Freddie Mac data cited by Zacks shows the average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate at about 6.23% in late November 2025, down from roughly 6.81% a year earlier, signaling an easing but still‑elevated rate environment. ^[32]

For AGNC, this environment has several implications:

Lower funding costs and a less hostile yield curve support net interest spreads over time.
Falling rates can boost the market value of existing MBS, helping book value and economic return.
However, sustained rate declines also increase prepayment and refinancing risk, which can shorten asset lives and compress future returns.

AGNC’s Q3 commentary and Zacks’ analysis highlight that the company is running roughly 68% interest‑rate hedge coverage and leverage around 7.6×, suggesting a careful balance between capturing spread and limiting book‑value volatility. ^[33]

7. Capital Structure and Preferred Offering

Beyond common shares, AGNC has been actively managing its capital stack:

On September 3, 2025, the company priced a $300 million public offering of 8.75% Series H Fixed‑Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (ticker AGNCZ), issued via 12 million depositary shares at $25 each. ^[34]
Proceeds are earmarked to fund additional Agency and non‑Agency securities and related hedges, and for general corporate purposes. ^[35]

Preferred stock adds fixed obligations and can modestly increase leverage, but also locks in long‑term capital at defined rates. For common shareholders, it’s another reminder that AGNC is actively optimizing its funding to navigate a changing rate environment.

8. Key Opportunities and Risks for AGNC Investors

Bull case: Why income investors still like AGNC

Recent research highlights several positives:

Government‑backed collateral
AGNC invests almost exclusively in Agency MBS, which carry guarantees from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. This dramatically reduces credit risk compared to non‑Agency mortgage REITs. ^[36]
Stabilizing book value and strong liquidity
After painful book‑value hits during the rate spike, 2025 has seen book value rise back toward the high‑$9s, with solid economic returns and liquidity exceeding $7 billion. ^[37]
Double‑digit monthly income
With a 13–14% yield, monthly payout and decades‑long dividend history, AGNC remains one of the highest‑yielding, widely followed income stocks in U.S. markets. ^[38]
Fed easing tailwind
Multiple rate cuts in 2025 and expectations for further easing in 2026 support lower funding costs and potentially tighter MBS spreads, which can bolster earnings and book value if volatility remains contained. ^[39]

Bear case: What could go wrong

On the other side, analysts and commentators flag meaningful risks:

Valuation premium and limited upside
AGNC now trades at a premium to peers on price‑to‑book, while consensus price targets mostly sit below the current share price, suggesting limited capital‑gains potential from here. ^[40]
Dividend risk despite strong recent coverage
While Q3 earnings covered the dividend, earlier periods did not, and metrics like the >200% payout ratio on GAAP earnings keep sustainability in question. Mortgage REITs have a long history of cutting dividends when conditions turn, and both Kiplinger and Zacks emphasize this possibility. ^[41]
Interest‑rate and spread volatility
AGNC’s performance is tightly linked to mortgage spreads and the shape of the yield curve. Zacks’ Nasdaq article notes that persistent rate swings and spread risk have already pressured tangible book in recent years, and hedging strategies can’t fully protect against all scenarios. ^[42]
Leverage and preferred obligations
With leverage around the mid‑single‑digits to high‑single‑digits and new 8.75% preferred stock outstanding, AGNC must continue to navigate market turbulence carefully to avoid eroding equity through mark‑to‑market losses or funding squeezes. ^[43]
Mixed earnings outlook
Zacks’ EPS projections call for lower earnings in 2025 vs. 2024 and only modest growth in 2026, which underpins its Sell ranking even as other firms rate the stock a Buy. ^[44]

9. Is AGNC Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell Right Now?

Putting all of this together:

Income‑focused investors who understand mortgage‑REIT risk may still find AGNC compelling as a high‑octane yield vehicle, especially given recent evidence of improving book value and solid liquidity.
Total‑return or risk‑averse investors, however, should note that the stock already trades near or above most 12‑month price targets, carries a double‑digit yield that markets clearly treat as risky, and operates in a segment that is highly sensitive to Fed policy, yield‑curve shifts and spread shocks.

The consensus narrative from recent research is that AGNC in December 2025 offers:

“High income, modest expected price upside, and meaningful macro and dividend risk.”

Whether that trade‑off is attractive depends entirely on your objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance. Any decision should be made in the context of a diversified portfolio and, ideally, with guidance from a qualified financial professional.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security.