New York, Jan 11, 2026, 19:24 EST — Market closed.
- AGNC shares ended Friday up about 2% as a U.S. mortgage-bond purchase plan took shape. (Reuters)
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the buying is aimed at matching the Fed’s monthly mortgage-bond runoff pace. (Reuters)
- Traders head into Monday watching for more detail on the program and Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) shares closed at $11.41 on Friday, up about 2%, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s mortgage-bond purchases are designed to offset the Federal Reserve’s monthly runoff. “What is happening is the Fed has about $15 billion of roll-off every month,” Bessent told Reuters. (Reuters)
That matters for AGNC because it sits right on the plumbing. The mortgage REIT owns mortgage-backed securities, then borrows against them and hedges interest-rate risk to generate income. Small swings in bond prices and funding costs can turn into big moves in book value — and that is what investors trade.
The new wrinkle is supply and demand. If a large buyer leans into agency mortgage bonds while the Fed keeps letting holdings shrink, it can change the price of the same bonds AGNC holds and the spread it earns. “Spread” here is just the gap between what the assets pay and what it costs to fund them.
Bessent said the administration’s goal is to match the Fed’s MBS roll-off, and that the purchases — ordered by President Donald Trump and overseen by the Federal Housing Finance Agency — would be funded by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s own balance sheets. FHFA Director William Pulte said an initial $3 billion round of purchases had begun, Reuters reported. (Reuters)
Housing-linked stocks jumped Friday after Trump ordered $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases, and analysts at TD Cowen wrote the move “is not a surprise” and could narrow the spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield. “Every little bit will help push mortgage yields lower,” Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, told Reuters. (Reuters)
Rates are the other moving part. A soft U.S. jobs report on Friday left investors debating whether the Fed stays on hold this month, with the 10-year Treasury yield last around 4.177%, Reuters reported. “The Fed will likely hold course for now,” Lindsay Rosner at Goldman Sachs Asset Management wrote in an email. (Reuters)
AGNC also remains a dividend trade for many holders. The stock carries an annual dividend of $1.44 a share and a yield around 12.6%, with the next ex-dividend date listed as Jan. 30. (The ex-dividend date is when shares begin trading without the right to the upcoming payout.) (StockAnalysis)
Peers moved with the group on Friday. Annaly Capital Management, MFA Financial, Invesco Mortgage Capital and PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust all closed higher, with PennyMac up about 2.5% and Invesco Mortgage up about 1.5%.
For Monday’s session, investors will be looking for clearer mechanics: how fast the buying program runs, what securities it targets, and whether it meaningfully tightens agency mortgage spreads — the price gap that matters for REIT book values.
But the setup cuts both ways. If Treasury yields jump or mortgage spreads widen instead of tightening, AGNC’s asset values can fall even if the company is hedged. And if mortgage rates drop sharply, faster loan prepayments can pressure returns on mortgage bonds, blunting the benefit of higher prices.
The next hard catalyst is Tuesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index report for December 2025, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday. The Fed’s next rate decision is scheduled for Jan. 27-28. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Until then, AGNC holders are left with two live inputs: headline inflation and the pace of government-backed mortgage-bond buying — both of which can move mortgage REIT prices before the opening bell on Monday.
