TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
Here are five U.S.-listed stocks for Friday, July 31, ranked after Thursday’s close and the latest after-hours results. The model favors companies with strong earnings revisions, efficient cash conversion, and attractive valuations. Large price gaps lower the entry score.
Selective • buy resets, not gaps
+1.66%
+2.78%
+1.19%
5.21%
$258.78 • +9.89%
ECI • 08:30 ET
Thursday saw a strong but selective rally, with Microsoft climbing 15.5%. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.24%, its highest since 2007. On Friday, investors will watch the Chicago PMI at 09:45 ET and final consumer sentiment at 10:00 ET.
24% weight
Xylem
NYSE: XYL
94 / 100
Thursday’s 4.4% drop set up the clearest price-to-fundamentals scenario in the group. Orders increased by 42%, margins improved, and management raised its profit outlook. However, revenue guidance stayed flat, making backlog conversion more important than rapid sales growth.
Shares closed at $116.82. Analysts rate the stock Overweight, with an average price target of $154.94 and targets ranging from $130 to $183, implying a potential upside of 32.6%.
Orders rose 42% to $3.1 billion. Revenue grew 2% to $2.3 billion. Adjusted EPS increased 16% to $1.46. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 150 basis points to 23.3%.
The 2026 EPS outlook is $5.55 to $5.70, putting shares at a 20.8× earnings multiple based on the midpoint. Consensus 2026 EPS estimates have increased by 2.0% over the past month.
Buy the first tranche at $114–$120, add more at $108–$112, and avoid buying above $124.
Conversion of Water Solutions orders, new contracts in data centers and power projects, and achievement of a full-year EBITDA margin between 23.1% and 23.5%.
utility and industrial projects can shift between quarters.
22% weight
AerCap
NYSE: AER
92 / 100
AerCap trades at a low earnings multiple amid rising estimates, ongoing share repurchases, and strong aircraft values. The company increased its guidance, not factoring in any second-half asset sales, which could provide upside if executed. However, the business remains capital intensive.
Shares closed at $152.87, up 2.85%. The consensus rating is Overweight, with an average price target of $178.90. Targets range from $165 to $190, indicating an implied 17.0% upside.
Revenue and other income rose 15% to $2.17bn, with adjusted net income at $811m. Adjusted EPS came in at $5.14, and operating cash flow totaled $1.5bn.
The company expects adjusted EPS of around $16.80 for 2026, valuing shares at 9.1 times projected earnings and 1.28 times book value. Analyst consensus for 2026 EPS has climbed 7.9% over the past month.
Initiate first tranche at $149–$155; consider adding at $143–$147; avoid buying above $158
Lease yields, airline credit quality, aircraft sale margins, and ongoing share repurchases below the model’s estimated intrinsic value.
defaults can weaken returns. Gains on asset sales also vary by quarter.
20% weight
Visa
NYSE: V
90 / 100
Visa delivered strong quarterly results across the board, with double-digit growth in revenue, payment volume, cross-border activity, and processed transactions. While the stock is not inexpensive, its earnings outlook remains clearer than that of many peers benefiting from the current rally.
Shares closed at $366.27, down 0.67%. Analysts rate the stock a Buy on average, with a consensus price target of $416.28. Targets range from $370 to $450, suggesting a potential upside of 13.7%.
Revenue rose 14% to $11.63 billion, while adjusted EPS climbed 11% to $3.32. Payments volume increased 10%, and total cross-border volume was up 13%.
Full-year adjusted revenue is expected to grow at the lower end of the low-teens range, with adjusted EPS also projected to rise at the lower end of the mid-teens. The company trades at 27.7 times FY2026 consensus EPS and 24.4 times for FY2027.
First tranche: $358–$369. Add between $348 and $354. Avoid chasing above $375.
Fourth-quarter volumes, client incentives, and the impact of restructuring on productivity and the pace of product launches.
regulation and a planned workforce reduction add execution risk.
18% weight
Amazon
NASDAQ: AMZN
87 / 100
AWS reported its strongest growth in 18 quarters, contributing the majority of the group’s operating profit. Performance metrics are solid, but the stock surged nearly 10% after hours even as significant AI spending drove trailing free cash flow into negative territory.
Shares closed at $235.50, up 3.9%. In after-hours trading, the stock rose to $258.78, gaining 9.89%. Analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target of $317.02—implying a 22.5% upside from the after-hours level.
Sales reached $200.6bn, up 20%. Operating income rose 43% to $27.5bn. AWS revenue came in at $42.2bn, an increase of 37%, while AWS operating income jumped 64% to $16.6bn.
Third-quarter sales are projected at $197 billion to $202 billion, with operating income expected between $22.5 billion and $26.5 billion. The after-hours share price values the company at roughly 25.6 times the FY2027 consensus EPS forecast made before these results.
Consider the first tranche at $246 to $258, add between $236 and $242, and avoid buying above $263.
Key factors include AWS backlog conversion, AI capacity utilization, advertising growth, and how quickly capital spending translates into free cash flow.
was inflated by a large non-operating gain tied mainly to Anthropic.
16% weight
UPS
NYSE: UPS
84 / 100
UPS shifted focus from cost-cutting to solid earnings growth. Revenue and adjusted profit increased, guidance improved, and the valuation remains conservative. The dividend bolsters the case for entry, but the smaller weighting reflects a broad range of analyst targets and the need for strong performance in the second half.
Shares closed at $105.27, up 0.68%. Analyst consensus is Overweight, with an average price target of $116.12. Targets range from $76 to $135, implying a potential 10.3% upside.
Revenue reached $22.8 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 9.2% and adjusted EPS of $1.76. U.S. revenue rose 6.0%, while international revenue climbed 12.5%.
Projected 2026 revenue stands at $91.2 billion, with adjusted operating profit estimated at $8.65 billion and adjusted earnings per share around $7.22. The forecast implies a 14.6 times price-to-earnings ratio and an annualized dividend yield of 6.2%.
Initial buy range: $101–$106; consider adding at $96–$99; avoid buying above $109.
Domestic package volumes, revenue per shipment, execution of the $3 billion cost program, and updates following Amazon’s network pullback.
volumes and margins must improve further to support the full-year target.
| Ticker | Price | Forecast | Fwd P/E | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XYL | $116.82 | 2026 guide midpoint $5.63 | 20.8× | $154.94 | +32.6% | $114–$120 |
| AER | $152.87 | 2026 guide $16.80 | 9.1× | $178.90 | +17.0% | $149–$155 |
| V | $366.27 | FY2026 consensus $13.20 | 27.7× | $416.28 | +13.7% | $358–$369 |
| AMZN | $258.78 AH | FY2027 pre-refresh $10.09 | 25.6× | $317.02 | +22.5% | $246–$258 |
| UPS | $105.27 | 2026 guide $7.22 | 14.6× | $116.12 | +10.3% | $101–$106 |
Amazon’s reference price is the after-hours quote at 17:47 ET. The analyst target and earnings estimate were set before the latest results and are considered preliminary. Price targets represent forecasts and are not guaranteed returns.
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
Earnings and forecast updates
Cash flow and balance sheet
Valuation relative to projections
Entry quality remains after the move
Short-term event risk
Use limit orders and build each position in three tranches.
Avoid placing market orders on stocks with an opening gap higher than 5%. Review your strategy after the 08:30 ET Employment Cost Index release and during the first hour of trading. Amazon will stay underweight in the portfolio unless its price moves into the target range.
NASDAQ: MSFT
DO NOT CHASE
Shares surged 15.5% in a day on upbeat cloud outlook. While operational prospects have brightened, Friday’s gains hinge on a significant pullback.
NASDAQ: AAPL
WAIT FOR PRICE DISCOVERY
Revenue climbed 16% to $109.4 billion, but guidance for the September quarter fell short of expectations, sending shares down 7.8% in after-hours trading.
NYSE: GD
QUALITY, LIMITED DISCOUNT
Revenue came in at $14.09 billion, with guidance increasing to $16.80–$16.90 per share. The average price target of about $416 implies a high single-digit gain from the current $382.20.
6.8 / 10
Moderately elevated risk. Four picks show recent operational progress, but Amazon’s after-hours surge and high long-term yields increase entry risk.
Thursday’s rally was driven largely by mega-cap technology stocks. The 30-year yield is still above 5%. Investors are watching for wage and sentiment data on Friday, while month-end flows could amplify market swings. A strong company doesn’t always make for a strong opening trade.