AI Stocks Soar as $100B Nvidia-OpenAI Deal Sparks Frenzy

Key Facts:

Nvidia drives market: Nvidia announced it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI ^[1], sending NVDA shares to new highs (the stock rallied to records before a slight pullback ^[2]). On Sept 29 tech indexes rose: NVDA +2%, Microsoft +0.6% ^[3].
Broad chip and memory rally: AI-focused chipmakers led gains. AMD jumped ~2.7% on reports of AI-enhanced “Zen6” CPUs ^[4]. Memory suppliers surged – Western Digital, Seagate and Micron all climbed 5–9% – as Morgan Stanley cited an AI-driven hard-drive cycle ^[5].
Chinese AI race: Alibaba’s shares +10% on its AI push (trillion-parameter Qwen3-Max model, Nvidia partnership and global data-center plans) ^[6]. Meanwhile, China’s DeepSeek released a new LLM (DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp) with “Sparse Attention” to cut compute costs and slashed API prices by ~50% ^[7], intensifying competition with Alibaba’s Qwen and OpenAI.
New regulations: U.S. and global regulators moved on AI. California Gov. Newsom signed SB 53, requiring big AI companies (e.g. OpenAI, Google, Meta, Nvidia) to disclose risk/safety plans ^[8]; Colorado and New York have enacted similar laws ^[9]. In Europe, the AI Act is moving ahead (effective Aug 2025) with no full pause ^[10], though the EU is discussing limited delays on “high-risk” provisions ^[11].
Fund flows and sentiment: Global equity funds saw ~$28.4B inflow (week to Sept 24) on renewed AI optimism ^[12]. U.S. funds drew $12.1B that week – snapping 2 weeks of outflows – as Nvidia’s news bolstered sentiment ^[13]. Analysts note big-cap “Magnificent Seven” tech remained in favor, while small/mid-caps lagged.
Analysts’ bullish calls: Wall Street firms raised targets on AI leaders. Barclays lifted NVIDIA’s target to $240 (from $200), calling NVDA “the most attractive” play amid a massive $2 trillion+ AI spend outlook ^[14]. Morgan Stanley made Microsoft a “Top Pick” with a $625 price target, citing broad AI and cloud growth ^[15].
Caution from experts: Despite the rally, some strategists warn of overheating. Reuters Breakingviews noted that trillions in AI capex may not yield proportional returns ^[16]. U.S. strategists advise focusing on earnings and policy (rate cuts) over hype ^[17] ^[18], as even Fed Chair Powell said equity prices were “fairly highly valued.”

Tech Stocks Fuel an AI-Led Rally

Wall Street’s late-Sept surge was led by big-tech on AI expectations. The Nasdaq rose ~0.5% on Sept. 29 as investors looked past US fiscal jitters and focused on growth. Nvidia was a standout: after Monday’s $100B OpenAI announcement ^[19], NVDA shares reached all-time highs. The stock then pulled back slightly (down ~2.8% on Sept. 23) but rebounded +2% on Sept. 29 ^[20] ^[21]. Other “Magnificent Seven” names also rose: Microsoft gained +0.6% and Amazon +1.1% on the day ^[22] ^[23]. (In the prior week all had dipped on Powell’s policy comments ^[24], but the AI news restored momentum.) Even smaller AI plays like AppLovin (+6.3%) and Lam Research (+2.8%) climbed on investor enthusiasm ^[25]. In sum, strategists observed that “technology provided the biggest boost as investors bet on growth from AI” ^[26].

Chipmakers and Memory Suppliers Surge

Chip and hardware companies saw some of the biggest moves. On Sept. 29, AMD surged ~2.7% ^[27] amid reports its next-generation “Zen6” CPUs will feature advanced on-chip AI acceleration (leveraging die-to-die memory links to speed neural processing) ^[28]. Similarly, GPU and AI-infrastructure stocks rallied: ASML and KLA ticked higher, and Lam Research rose after an upgrade. Notably, memory stocks exploded: Western Digital, Seagate and Micron each jumped 5–9%, led by Western Digital ^[29]. Morgan Stanley analysts raised their targets on WD and Seagate, forecasting a firm hard-drive cycle boosted by AI data-center demand ^[30]. (This ties to Micron’s own outlook: on Sept. 23 Micron forecast Q1 revenue well above estimates thanks to booming HBM AI-chip demand ^[31], and its shares have been bid up on those forecasts.) In short, companies that supply AI chips or data-center hardware saw significant gains as investors priced in “accelerating demand for AI infrastructure” ^[32].

Big AI Partnerships and Deals

Several major deals underscored the fervor. Nvidia’s pact with OpenAI was the headline: it agreed to supply chips and commit funding (initially $10B up to $100B) to OpenAI’s next-gen data center (“Stargate”) ^[33]. The news lifted not only Nvidia (+4.4% intraday) but also Oracle (+6%), as Oracle is a key partner in that $500B AI data-center project with OpenAI, SoftBank and Microsoft ^[34]. In cloud and data centers, Alibaba announced at its Sept. 24 Apsara Conference a partnership with Nvidia and a multi-country data-center expansion, unveiling its new trillion-parameter Qwen3-Max AI model ^[35]. Hong Kong-traded Alibaba stock spiked ~9.7% on the announcements ^[36]. In aerospace, Boeing’s defense unit said it will standardize AI analytics via Palantir’s platform – a tie-up that sent Palantir shares up ~2% ^[37]. These deals (along with other rumors of M&A) highlighted that both tech giants and industrial companies are doubling down on AI-enabled products and services.

New Regulations and Policy Moves

Regulators also took center stage. On Sept. 29, California passed SB 53, the nation’s first law forcing big AI companies (like OpenAI, Google, Meta, Nvidia, Anthropic) to publicly disclose safety and risk-mitigation plans for potential “existential” threats ^[38]. The law (effective 2026) mandates assessments for runaway AI risks or biothreat generation, and allows fines up to $1 million per violation ^[39]. This follows similar measures: Colorado and New York have enacted AI oversight bills this year ^[40]. In Europe, the landmark AI Act remains on schedule; EU officials insist there will be no outright pause ^[41], though Brussels is consulting on targeted simplifications. Reports indicate the Commission may delay enforcement of some “high-risk” rules (e.g. for critical sectors) by 6–12 months ^[42] to help businesses adapt. In sum, regulators worldwide are beginning to shape the AI landscape – an important factor as investor enthusiasm grows.

Market Commentary and Investor Flows

Experts and fund managers are weighing in. Many analysts have reaffirmed bullish outlooks: e.g. Barclays said NVDA is the “most attractive name” in semis given a projected $2 trillion AI spending wave ^[43]. They see Nvidia’s earnings per share roughly doubling by FY2027 on these trends ^[44]. JPMorgan and others are likewise highlighting AI-era winners (Microsoft’s cloud growth, Nvidia’s GPUs, memory stocks, etc.). However, some voices urge caution. Reuters Breakingviews noted that trillion-dollar capex in AI may not yield commensurate returns, warning of a possible “AI investment bubble” ^[45]. MIT research cited by Breakingviews found 95% of firms see no AI ROI yet ^[46], suggesting the rally rests largely on future promises.

On the trading floor, the AI news triggered notable fund flows. According to LSEG data, $28.4 billion poured into global equity funds in the week to Sept. 24 – the first inflow in three weeks ^[47]. U.S. stock funds alone netted $12.1B in that week ^[48], as investors reloaded big-cap tech after selling off in prior weeks. In Asia, some tech ETFs saw gains as Hong Kong and mainland China shares climbed on AI developments. Overall, money is rotating back into AI and tech segments (and away from defensive, volatile sectors), reflecting renewed risk appetite. Some hedge funds and quantitative traders reportedly boosted their “Magnificent Seven” and semiconductor positions on the rally ^[49]. Yet institutional investors also note that valuations are rich: as one strategist put it, “the market is not going to shoot to the moon” – earnings and macro will ultimately need to justify these prices ^[50].

Global AI Trends Influence Markets

Worldwide, AI developments continue to shape markets. In Asia, China’s tech giants are aggressively pursuing AI: besides Alibaba’s news, the DeepSeek model launch on Sept. 29 ^[51] highlights that smaller Chinese AI labs are pushing boundaries. DeepSeek’s price cuts and architectural advances could pressure local rivals (like Qwen) and even U.S. firms if it succeeds ^[52]. In Europe, companies are prepping for the EU AI Act; some analysts speculate that AI compliance costs will favor big players, potentially benefiting incumbents like SAP or Siemens in the long run. No major AI stock news emerged from Japan or India in this window, but analysts note that governments in those regions are also rolling out AI strategies (which will bear watching).

Bottom line: The Sept. 29–30 period saw a clear rebound in AI stock enthusiasm. Nvidia’s headline $100B deal and related chip/tech buy-side pressure lifted markets, and strong flows into equity funds confirmed investors are back in a “growth from AI” mindset ^[53] ^[54]. But the simultaneous regulatory moves and expert warnings serve as a reminder that the AI boom carries risks as well as rewards. Market watchers will be closely monitoring upcoming earnings, Fed signals, and how these vast AI projects translate into real revenue in the quarters ahead.

Sources: Market and analyst reports from Reuters, Morningstar/Investing.com, GuruFocus, and associated outlets (see citations) ^[55] ^[56] ^[57] ^[58] ^[59] ^[60] ^[61] ^[62] ^[63].