New York, January 20, 2026, 06:50 ET — Premarket
U.S. artificial intelligence stocks were mixed in premarket trading on Tuesday as stock index futures slid to one-month lows after President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats against Europe in a standoff over Greenland. Trump said extra 10% import tariffs would start on Feb. 1 and rise to 25% on June 1 unless a deal is reached, pushing up volatility after the long U.S. holiday weekend. (Reuters)
The AI complex has become a shorthand trade for risk appetite, with investors using chipmakers, cloud giants and server suppliers as a proxy for data-center spending. When tariffs and geopolitics move the macro dial, the sector tends to feel it first — and sometimes too much.
The International Monetary Fund on Monday forecast global growth of 3.3% in 2026, pointing to a continuing AI investment boom as one support for activity, even as it flagged trade flareups as a downside risk. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas also warned that if AI productivity hopes fall short, “this could spark a correction in high market valuations.” (Reuters)
Among U.S.-listed AI bellwethers, Nvidia fell about 0.5% to $186.23 while Alphabet slipped 0.9% to $330.00 in premarket trade. Microsoft rose 0.7% to $459.86, AMD gained 1.7% to $231.83, Broadcom added 2.6% to $351.71 and AI-server maker Super Micro jumped 11.0% to $32.64; the Invesco QQQ Trust, an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100, was down about 0.1%.
Nvidia drew extra scrutiny after Taiwanese server maker Inventec said a decision on whether Nvidia’s H200 AI chip can be sold in China “appears to be stuck on the China side.” “It depends on the political direction,” Inventec President Jack Tsai told a Taipei press conference, underscoring how export rules and Chinese enforcement remain a live risk for AI chip supply chains. (Reuters)
On the demand side, Microsoft-backed OpenAI offered investors a different datapoint: CFO Sarah Friar said the company’s annualized revenue — a run-rate measure — surpassed $20 billion in 2025, up from $6 billion in 2024, alongside a jump in computing capacity. Friar said OpenAI’s next phase will lean into agents and workflow automation, and that it will prioritize “practical adoption” in 2026. (Reuters)
Overnight data out of Asia also leaned supportive for the AI supply chain, even if it did little to calm tariff nerves. Taiwan said 2025 export orders rose 26% to a record $743.73 billion, with December orders up 43.8% from a year earlier, as demand tied to AI and high-performance computing expanded; the ministry flagged trade policy and geopolitical risks as uncertainties. (Reuters)
Still, there were early signs of caution around the hardware spend that sits behind many AI revenue forecasts. Morgan Stanley downgraded its view of North American IT hardware to “cautious,” calling out a “perfect storm” of slowing demand, rising component costs and rich valuations; it cut ratings on Logitech and NetApp, while Dell, HP and Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell 2%-3% in premarket trade. The bank also pointed to value-added resellers — middlemen that bundle equipment and services for corporate buyers — reporting a pullback in customer spending plans. (Reuters)
In Europe, the tone stayed brittle. TD Cowen analysts called the Greenland tariff threat “the most unusual and potentially serious shift” they have seen in U.S. foreign policy, adding: “There’s no playbook for this,” while investors watched for cues from the World Economic Forum in Davos and for the next U.S. Supreme Court rulings due later on Tuesday. (Reuters)
The risk for AI names is a two-front hit: tighter trade and export frictions on one side, and a chill in corporate budgets on the other if the tariff fight turns into a wider trade war. European leaders have discussed retaliatory options in response to the proposed tariffs, adding another layer of uncertainty for companies with global supply chains. (AP News)
For the next catalyst, traders will sift earnings and guidance for any read-through to growth multiples and tech spending. Netflix said it will post its fourth-quarter 2025 results and business outlook at about 1:01 p.m. Pacific Time on Tuesday, followed by a live management interview — an early checkpoint for the market’s tolerance for high-priced growth shares, including AI-linked stocks. (Netflix)
