Alibaba Stock Soars on AI Frenzy – Can the Rally Last?

Alibaba (BABA) Stock Today: AI Chatbot Push, Travel Boom and U.S. Security Scrutiny – November 18, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) is back under the market’s microscope today, November 18, 2025, as investors digest a powerful mix of AI product launches, strong Double 11 travel data and new legal and political risks tied to a White House memo and a fresh class‑action investigation. [1]

Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at BABA stock today, the latest headlines, and what they could mean for the shares over the coming weeks.


BABA stock price today after a huge 2025 rally

Alibaba’s ADRs closed Monday, November 17, 2025 at $157.71, according to multiple price providers. [2]

Intraday reports today suggest the stock is trading in the high‑$150s, with:

  • MarketBeat citing BABA “trading up 2.7%” and opening around $158 this morning. [3]
  • GuruFocus noting a move of roughly +1.3% to about $159.72 as investors react to Alibaba’s latest consumer‑facing AI initiatives. [4]

From a performance standpoint:

  • Simply Wall St estimates year‑to‑date gains of ~85.7% and 79.5% over the past 12 months, even after a pullback of about 5% over the last month. [5]
  • Investing.com calculates a 12‑month change of around +81%, with a 52‑week range between $80.06 and $192.67. [6]

In other words, BABA stock today is consolidating near the upper half of its 52‑week range after a powerful 2025 run, with new AI news acting as a short‑term catalyst against a backdrop of rising geopolitical and legal risk.


1. Alibaba launches free consumer AI chatbot Qwen

The headline story today is Alibaba’s push deeper into consumer AI.

Major Qwen chatbot upgrade

Reuters reports that Alibaba has launched a major upgrade to its AI chatbot “Qwen”, shifting from a mostly enterprise‑focused strategy to a direct, consumer‑facing push. The new app is based on its latest large language model and is available free of charge in China via mobile and web, with an international version planned. [7]

Key details from today’s coverage:

  • Qwen can generate full research reports and auto‑create multi‑slide presentations from a single command, showcasing Alibaba’s ambition to position it as a powerful personal productivity assistant. [8]
  • This marks a strategic shift: Alibaba had previously emphasized enterprise AI through its cloud unit; Qwen now targets mass‑market consumers directly. [9]
  • The move comes amid an intense price war in China’s AI sector, driven by rivals like DeepSeek and ByteDance’s Doubao, which have been undercutting the market with low‑cost models and aggressively priced API access. [10]

Xinhua and other Chinese outlets frame the launch as an attempt to “claim the mass market” in consumer AI, describing Qwen as an upgraded generative chatbot aimed at accelerating adoption among everyday users. [11]

Regional tech coverage (for example, The Daily Star) also highlights that Qwen Chat is being made available free via app stores and the web, removing cost as a barrier to entry and positioning Alibaba to scale user numbers quickly. [12]

Still playing catch‑up

Despite being one of the first Chinese players with a ChatGPT‑style assistant in late 2023, Qwen’s earlier incarnation (Tongyi) struggled to gain traction:

  • Tongyi reportedly had about 7 million monthly active users in September, compared with roughly 150 million for ByteDance’s Doubao and over 70 million for DeepSeek, underscoring how far Alibaba needs to climb in the consumer AI race. [13]

The upgraded Qwen, broader marketing push and free pricing are designed to narrow that gap and reinforce Alibaba’s AI narrative — a key pillar of the BABA bull case.


2. Qianwen/Qwen + Quark: analysts call Alibaba a top AI pick

Today’s AI story isn’t just about the app itself — it’s about how it slots into Alibaba’s broader ecosystem.

Quark browser + Qianwen app

GuruFocus notes that BABA shares rose about 1.3% to roughly $159.72 as the market reacted to the public test phase of the Qianwen (Qwen) app, which is tightly integrated into Alibaba’s Quark browser. Users can access conversational AI simply by swiping right inside Quark, turning the browser into a front‑door for Alibaba’s AI. [14]

An upcoming update to Quark’s PC version will introduce a full AI browser, even more deeply integrated with Qianwen/Qwen. [15]

CMSI and CMB International remain bullish

A fresh research report from CMSI (via AASTOCKS) and commentary from CMB International Securities both underscore how the Street is framing today’s launches: [16]

  • CMSI describes Qianwen (Qwen) as Alibaba’s most powerful official AI assistant, with conversational, writing and multimodal camera capabilities.
  • The broker argues that Alibaba’s self‑built full ecosystem and free‑use strategy give it an advantage versus ChatGPT‑style models that rely on third‑party app integration.
  • CMSI reiterates Alibaba (BABA‑W / 9988 HK) as a top pick with a Buy rating, saying continuous AI innovation will drive earnings and valuation.
  • CMB International similarly maintains BABA as a “top pick”, citing strong execution and ecosystem synergies, and keeps a U.S. target near $204 — implying meaningful upside from current levels. [17]

Together, these notes anchor today’s AI news in a broader investment thesis: that Alibaba’s deep integration of Qwen across apps like Quark, Taobao and cloud services could create a defensible AI moat inside China’s internet ecosystem.


3. Fliggy’s Double 11 travel boom adds to the growth story

While AI grabs the headlines, Alibaba’s travel arm Fliggy quietly reported very strong numbers today for the 2025 Double 11 Global Travel Festival.

According to an official PR Newswire release: [18]

  • Fliggy’s gross merchandise value (GMV) for fulfilled travel transactions jumped 30% year‑on‑year.
  • Users placed over six million promotional product orders, including nearly one million flight passes, about three million hotel packages and over two million attraction and leisure bundles.
  • The number of participating users rose more than 20% YoY, signalling robust travel demand.
  • Membership remains a key driver: 88VIP members grew by ~30% and contributed more than 70% of top merchants’ sales.

Alibaba’s recent 11.11 commerce release also highlighted solid growth on its core Taobao and Tmall platforms, with this year’s shopping festival described as the strongest in several years and notable for its large‑scale roll‑out of AI‑powered shopping tools. [19]

For investors, the Fliggy update reinforces the “China consumer recovery + ecosystem synergy” angle: travel, retail, membership and AI‑driven recommendations are increasingly interlinked inside Alibaba’s platform.


4. Institutional flows: big cuts from some hedge funds

Not all of today’s headlines are purely bullish.

Rockefeller Capital trims BABA by ~51%

MarketBeat reports that Rockefeller Capital Management L.P. cut its BABA stake by 51.4% in Q2, selling more than 250,000 shares and ending the period with about 239,507 shares valued at $27.16 million. [20]

The same piece notes:

  • Around 13.5% of Alibaba’s stock is held by institutions and hedge funds.
  • The consensus analyst rating compiled by MarketBeat is “Moderate Buy”, with an average price target near $190.18. [21]

A separate MarketBeat alert today says Kazazian Asset Management LLC also reduced its BABA position by ~74.6% in Q2, though the stock still ranks among its top ten holdings. [22]

These moves suggest that some professional investors are de‑risking after the big 2025 rally, even as Wall Street’s overall view on BABA remains constructive.


5. Legal and geopolitical overhang: White House memo & class‑action probe

A major cloud hanging over BABA this week is the White House national security memo that surfaced on November 14 — and the legal fallout it has triggered.

White House memo alleges military links

According to reporting by the Financial Times and Reuters, a White House national security memo based on declassified intelligence alleges that Alibaba has provided technological and data support to China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in operations that could target U.S. interests. [23]

Key points from these reports:

  • The memo claims Alibaba supplied the PLA with capabilities via cloud computing, AI‑related services and access to sensitive customer data such as IP addresses, Wi‑Fi information and payment records. [24]
  • It also alleges that employees may have shared information on unpatched software vulnerabilities (“zero‑day” exploits). [25]
  • U.S.‑traded Alibaba shares fell roughly 4% on the news. [26]

Alibaba has strongly denied the allegations, calling them “completely false” and suggesting the leak may be politically motivated. [27]

Rosen Law Firm launches securities investigation

Off the back of this controversy, Rosen Law Firm announced on November 14 that it is investigating potential securities claims on behalf of Alibaba shareholders, alleging the company may have issued materially misleading business information. [28]

The firm is preparing a prospective class action and is inviting investors who bought BABA securities to contact it regarding potential recovery of losses.

While it is far too early to know whether any case will succeed, this development adds another layer of headline and litigation risk for Alibaba — on top of long‑running concerns about U.S.–China tech tensions, data security and possible listing or export restrictions. [29]


6. Fundamentals and valuation: still “undervalued” after the run?

Despite these risks, several valuation‑focused outlets still see upside in BABA from today’s levels.

Discounted cash flow and multiples

Simply Wall St’s detailed valuation review today concludes that: [30]

  • Alibaba’s free cash flow is estimated at around CN¥83.1 billion today and projected to grow to roughly CN¥189.3 billion by 2029.
  • A two‑stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests a fair value near $260.48 per share, about 39–40% above recent market prices in the high‑$150s.
  • Alibaba scores 6/6 on their undervaluation checks, leading them to label the stock “undervalued” on their framework.

On simple valuation metrics:

  • The site estimates BABA’s current P/E at ~16.9x, versus an industry average of about 19.5x and a company‑specific “fair” P/E of 27.2x, again implying discount relative to fundamentals and peers. [31]

Street price targets

Across the Street:

  • MarketBeat’s compilation of 19 analysts puts the average 12‑month price target around $190.18, with the highest near $240 — implying roughly 20% upside from the high‑$150s. [32]
  • A TipRanks summary notes a “Strong Buy” consensus with 19 Buy ratings and two Hold ratings, and an average target around $198, or ~24% above current levels, even though an AI‑driven “analyst” model recently downgraded the stock to Hold. [33]

Independent equity research from IG and others also pegs mean fair value around the high‑$190s, pointing to AI‑driven growth in cloud and commerce segments as catalysts. [34]


7. Upcoming catalyst: earnings on November 25, 2025

Investors won’t have to wait long for hard numbers.

Alibaba has confirmed that it will report September‑quarter (Q2 FY2026) results on November 25, 2025, with a conference call scheduled before the U.S. market open. [35]

Given the latest:

  • AI push (Qwen/Qianwen, Qwen3‑series models),
  • Double 11 strength in commerce and travel, and
  • Rising regulatory uncertainty,

that earnings release and guidance will be closely watched for clues on margin trends, cloud profitability and management’s stance on U.S. national security concerns.


8. What today’s news means for BABA stock

Putting everything together, BABA stock on November 18, 2025 sits at a complicated crossroads:

The bullish side of the ledger

  • AI momentum: The free Qwen chatbot and Qianwen app integration across the Quark browser and broader ecosystem strengthen Alibaba’s AI story and could deepen user engagement if adoption accelerates. [36]
  • Consumption recovery: Fliggy’s 30% GMV growth and record Double 11 travel volumes show that Chinese consumer demand — especially for services and outbound travel — is rebounding, which should support revenue growth. [37]
  • Valuation support: Multiple independent models (DCF and P/E‑based) and Street targets still point to double‑digit upside potential from today’s price, even after an 80%+ 12‑month rally. [38]

The bearish / risk factors

  • Geopolitical and regulatory risk: The White House memo alleging PLA links, plus calls in Washington to tighten restrictions on Chinese tech firms, significantly raise tail‑risk scenarios around U.S. market access and future sanctions. [39]
  • Legal overhang: The Rosen Law Firm’s securities investigation introduces potential class‑action and disclosure‑risk headlines, even if the ultimate financial impact proves limited. [40]
  • Positioning and volatility: Big institutional holders like Rockefeller and Kazazian are locking in profits and trimming exposure, which could add to volatility if more funds follow suit. [41]
  • Competition in AI: Despite today’s launch, Alibaba still trails rivals like ByteDance and DeepSeek on user metrics; closing that gap will require sustained investment and could pressure margins in the near term. [42]

Bottom line

For now, BABA stock today is being pulled in two directions:

  • Upward, by AI optimism, strong Double 11 data and valuation support, and
  • Downward, by heightened U.S. national‑security scrutiny, litigation noise and some profit‑taking by large funds.

Whether the bulls or bears win out from here will likely hinge on November 25 earnings, the pace of Qwen/Qianwen user growth, and how the White House memo story evolves.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering BABA stock should carefully assess their own risk tolerance and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser.

Alibaba shares soar to four-year high on AI spending boost news

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.macrotrends.net, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.gurufocus.com, 5. simplywall.st, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. en.people.cn, 12. www.thedailystar.net, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.gurufocus.com, 15. www.gurufocus.com, 16. www.aastocks.com, 17. www.gurufocus.com, 18. www.prnewswire.com, 19. www.alibabagroup.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.ft.com, 24. www.ft.com, 25. www.ft.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.ft.com, 28. www.businesswire.com, 29. www.ndtv.com, 30. simplywall.st, 31. simplywall.st, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.tipranks.com, 34. www.ig.com, 35. www.alibabagroup.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.prnewswire.com, 38. simplywall.st, 39. www.ft.com, 40. www.businesswire.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. www.reuters.com

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