Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA; HKEX: 9988) heads into the Dec. 26, 2025 U.S. trading session with a familiar mix of powerful narrative and persistent friction: AI-driven cloud momentum on one side, and e-commerce price wars + geopolitics/regulation on the other.
For investors looking to position ahead of Friday’s open, the “what matters most” list is unusually clear right now—because several of the biggest near-term catalysts are headline-driven, not spreadsheet-driven: U.S.-China chip policy, China’s tightening stance on platform pricing behavior, and the market’s appetite for “China AI” exposure as global investors hunt alternatives to a potentially overheated U.S. AI trade.
Below is what to know before the opening bell on Friday, December 26, 2025.
First: Which “market open” matters on Dec. 26?
U.S. markets are open Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, for a full regular session, even after the Christmas holiday. Reuters reported that major U.S. exchanges (including NYSE and Nasdaq) are sticking with the planned trading calendar—early close on Dec. 24, closed on Dec. 25, and a full day on Dec. 26. [1]
On the NYSE specifically, core trading is 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, and the pre-opening session begins at 6:30 a.m. ET (order entry/queueing ahead of the open). [2]
Hong Kong is different: HKEX’s Hong Kong markets are closed on Dec. 25 and Dec. 26 and re-open on Dec. 29 (with some derivatives exceptions). That means there will be no Hong Kong cash-market price discovery on Dec. 26, putting more focus on the U.S.-listed ADR (BABA) for the next “real” price signal. [3]
Why this matters: When one listing is shut, the open listing can temporarily “absorb” more of the news flow—sometimes with wider spreads and more reactive moves than usual (especially in holiday-thinned conditions).
Where Alibaba stock stands heading into Dec. 26
As of the Dec. 24, 2025 U.S. close (the early-close session ahead of Christmas), BABA was trading around $150. [4]
In recent sessions, Alibaba has remained well below its 52-week high near $192.67 (set Oct. 2, 2025), and recent trading volume has been below its 50-day average—signals that, despite bursts of optimism, conviction can still be episodic. [5]
Translation for Dec. 26: The stock is not entering Friday at an obvious “blow-off” extreme. It’s entering with a valuation debate and several catalysts that can quickly reset sentiment.
The biggest near-term catalyst: Nvidia H200 access and what it means for Alibaba’s AI ambitions
1) The U.S. “green light” for H200 exports—with a fee
In early December, Reuters reported a significant policy shift: the U.S. would allow exports of Nvidia’s H200 (a high-end Hopper-generation AI chip) to China while collecting a 25% fee on such sales. [6]
This matters for Alibaba because cloud + AI growth is increasingly compute-constrained industrywide. Access to more capable GPUs can translate into:
- faster model training,
- cheaper inference at scale (or improved capabilities at similar cost),
- more competitive cloud AI offerings for enterprise customers,
- and a stronger ecosystem around Alibaba’s Qwen family of models.
2) Reuters: Alibaba has asked Nvidia about buying H200—but supply and approvals are key
Reuters later reported that Alibaba and ByteDance have asked Nvidia about purchasing H200 chips following the U.S. signal, but that firms are concerned about supply and also watching for Chinese regulatory/official direction. [7]
3) Reuters: Potential shipments by mid-February 2026, but “nothing is certain”
The story didn’t end with “yes.” Reuters reported Nvidia has told Chinese clients it aims to begin H200 shipments to China before the Lunar New Year period in mid-February 2026, potentially fulfilling initial orders from existing stock—yet emphasized that shipments remain contingent on Beijing’s approval. [8]
The same Reuters report flagged ongoing uncertainty and described discussion of potential conditions—such as requiring H200 purchases to be bundled with a ratio of domestic chips. [9]
What to watch on Dec. 26: Any fresh headlines about:
- license approvals,
- China’s stance on procurement,
- chip shipment timelines and quantities,
- or new restrictions (from either side)
can move BABA quickly—because investors will treat them as inputs into Alibaba Cloud’s AI runway.
China’s platform pricing rules: A new regulatory “floor” under price-war tactics?
On Dec. 20, 2025, Reuters reported that China’s cyberspace authority announced new rules regulating pricing practices on internet platforms, effective April 10. The rules reiterate that platform operators must not use tactics like higher fees or search-ranking blacklisting to pressure merchants into lowering prices. [10]
This is highly relevant to Alibaba because one of the major investor worries in 2025 has been the profitability impact of the “instant retail” / quick-commerce battle—where the fight for one-hour delivery and consumer mindshare can incentivize aggressive discounts and subsidies.
The nuance: Regulation doesn’t automatically end price wars, and Reuters noted that major platforms had shown few signs of stopping instant-retail competition. But rules like these can change the “how” of competition—and potentially reduce the most coercive tactics that squeeze merchant margins. [11]
Investor takeaway: This is not a clean bullish catalyst, but it’s not trivial either. It is part of a broader effort to push toward “rational” competition—something equity investors typically prefer to uncontrolled subsidy spirals.
Alibaba’s fundamentals: Cloud acceleration is real, but commerce competition is still biting
Cloud: 34% revenue growth (and AI is a key driver)
Alibaba’s cloud narrative strengthened meaningfully in the most recent quarter (July–September 2025). AP reported Alibaba Cloud revenue rose 34%, with management pointing to AI-driven demand and emphasizing that AI demand was “accelerating.” [12]
Reuters also reported that Alibaba beat quarterly revenue estimates and highlighted “strong growth” in cloud while the company continues investing heavily. [13]
Commerce: Revenue growth modest; profits pressured by price war dynamics
AP reported that overall revenue rose 5% year-over-year in the same quarter while profit fell sharply, with fierce competition and price wars in e-commerce/food delivery weighing on short-term profitability. [14]
Reuters’ reporting similarly pointed to margin pressure tied to the quick-commerce battle and heavy subsidies/discounting. [15]
AI spending: Alibaba itself says the investment plan may be “on the small side”
Alibaba has been explicit about its AI ambition. Reuters reported Alibaba had previously pledged 380 billion yuan over three years for AI and cloud, and quoted CEO Eddie Wu suggesting the number might be “on the small side” given demand. [16]
AP also noted the three-year investment pledge and echoed the message that Alibaba could end up investing more than planned to meet demand. [17]
Bottom line: The market is increasingly valuing Alibaba as a “cloud + AI platform” again, not purely an e-commerce company—but the commerce battlefield still matters because it can absorb cash and compress margins.
Product velocity: Qwen’s consumer push and model cadence keep Alibaba in the AI conversation
Alibaba has been working to close the gap in consumer AI mindshare.
Reuters reported that in November Alibaba launched a major upgrade to its Qwen chatbot and positioned it as an aggressive move into consumer AI, with an international version planned later. [18]
Why this matters for investors:
- Consumer AI adoption can be a distribution engine (data, feedback, brand mindshare).
- Consumer traction can also support enterprise adoption indirectly—especially if developers and businesses see Qwen as a durable ecosystem, not a one-off model.
This also ties back to the chip story: stronger access to GPUs can support higher-quality models, cheaper inference, and more competitive deployment at scale.
Capital allocation: Buybacks, plus a big “AI infrastructure” funding move
Buybacks remain a pillar of the equity story
Alibaba’s own disclosures show meaningful repurchase activity. In its Share Repurchase Update as of March 31, 2025, Alibaba reported $11.9 billion repurchased in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, with $20.1 billion remaining authorized (effective through March 2027). [19]
For investors, buybacks can:
- reduce share count over time,
- signal management confidence,
- help offset dilution from compensation plans.
But Alibaba is also funding expansion: a $3.2B zero-coupon convertible bond
Reuters reported that Alibaba planned to raise $3.2 billion through a zero-coupon convertible bond, using nearly 80% of proceeds to expand data centers, upgrade tech, and improve cloud services—while also supporting international e-commerce expansion. [20]
Convertibles can be investor-friendly (low/no coupon) but come with a tradeoff:
- Potential dilution if converted
- A reminder that scaling AI infrastructure can be capital intensive
What to watch: If AI demand accelerates, capex can rise—so the market may reward cloud growth but still debate near-term margins and free cash flow.
International cloud expansion: Alibaba is building outside China—deliberately
Alibaba Cloud has been explicit about global buildout. In a September 2025 press release, Alibaba Cloud said it planned first data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, with additional data centers planned in Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Dubai, and noted it operated 91 availability zones in 29 regions globally. [21]
This matters because international growth can:
- diversify revenue away from China-only macro risk,
- expand the customer base for AI platforms and model tooling,
- and help Alibaba compete in regions where Chinese tech stacks are gaining adoption.
Geopolitics risk: Pentagon-list headlines are a real overhang for U.S. investors
On Nov. 26, Reuters reported Bloomberg News had said the Pentagon concluded Alibaba should be added to a U.S. list of companies that aid China’s military (the “Section 1260H” list), though it was unclear if the company had been formally added at that time. Reuters also noted the designation does not involve immediate bans but can damage reputations, and it included Alibaba’s statement disputing the basis and saying listing would not affect its ability to conduct business. [22]
Why it matters into Dec. 26: These headlines can reappear, evolve, or trigger institutional risk reviews. For ADR holders, “policy risk” can affect multiples even when fundamentals are improving.
Analyst forecasts: What Wall Street expects (and why the targets vary)
Analyst price targets for Alibaba remain broadly constructive, with meaningful upside implied from the ~$150 area—but there’s variation depending on methodology and which analysts are included.
- MarketBeat shows a consensus price target of $194 and a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating based on its tracked analyst set. [23]
- Investing.com shows an overall “Strong Buy” consensus and an average 12-month target around $199, and it lists recent firm actions/targets (e.g., Arete, Susquehanna, JPMorgan, Benchmark, Bernstein) with dates in late Nov. and early Dec. 2025. [24]
How to read the target dispersion:
- Bulls are underwriting cloud + AI acceleration, improving monetization, and a potential re-rating as China tech sentiment stabilizes.
- Skeptics focus on commerce subsidy intensity, regulatory and geopolitical risk premiums, and whether cloud/AI growth can sustainably offset commerce margin pressure.
The next major scheduled catalyst: Alibaba earnings on deck (Feb. 2026)
If you’re trading tactically, it’s not just about tomorrow morning—it’s also about the next “hard” fundamental checkpoint.
Market calendars list Alibaba’s next earnings date as Feb. 19, 2026 (timing may still change, as always). [25]
Why that matters now: The current debate—AI/cloud strength vs. commerce margin pressure—will likely be adjudicated by:
- cloud growth rate sustainability,
- AI-related revenue contribution and margin profile,
- and evidence that quick-commerce unit economics are improving without endless subsidies.
What to watch at the open on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025
Here’s a practical “opening playbook” for BABA watchers:
- Any new H200/export-control headlines
Expect high sensitivity to incremental details—timelines, approvals, shipment size, or new restrictions. [26] - China platform regulation chatter
Commentary and follow-ups on the April 2026 pricing rules could affect how investors handicap e-commerce margins and merchant relationships. [27] - Holiday liquidity effects
With Hong Kong closed and the U.S. coming off a holiday, price discovery can be more “headline-reactive” than usual. [28] - China AI sentiment as a style factor
Reuters recently highlighted growing global investor interest in Chinese AI plays as some investors diversify away from crowded U.S. AI exposure—Alibaba is repeatedly mentioned as a major liquid way to express that theme. [29]
The balanced takeaway for Dec. 26: Alibaba is an AI/cloud re-rating story—still chained to competition and policy
If you need the one-paragraph summary before the bell:
Alibaba (BABA) enters Dec. 26 with improving cloud/AI momentum (including strong recent cloud growth and an accelerating AI narrative), but the stock remains highly sensitive to policy headlines—especially U.S.-China chip dynamics and China’s platform regulation—while commerce competition continues to pressure margins. [30]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets involve risk, including loss of principal.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. www.hkex.com.hk, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. apnews.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. apnews.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.alibabagroup.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.alibabacloud.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.zacks.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.hkex.com.hk, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. apnews.com
