December 24, 2025 — Almonty Industries Inc. has become one of the more closely watched “critical minerals” names on U.S. markets as investors try to price a rare combination: a Western-aligned tungsten supply story, a major mine transitioning from development into operations, and a fresh round of growth capital that management says fully funds its current expansion plans.
On Dec. 24, 2025, Almonty’s Nasdaq-listed shares (NASDAQ: ALM) traded around the mid-$9 range during the session. [1]
Below is a full roundup of the current stock-moving news, forecasts, and market analysis available as of 24.12.2025, including the latest company releases, capital-markets actions, and what the analyst community is modeling into 2026.
What’s driving Almonty (ALM) stock attention right now
Three developments dominate the late-December narrative around Almonty stock:
- A major operational milestone at the Sangdong Tungsten Mine in South Korea
- A sizable U.S. equity financing that raised gross proceeds of $129.375 million
- A follow-on step to withdraw its base shelf prospectus and registration statement, signaling no near-term intent to raise additional capital under that shelf
Each item matters on its own. Together, they shape the market’s core question: How smoothly can Almonty ramp from “builder” into “producer,” and what does that mean for cash flow and valuation as tungsten supply risks escalate globally?
Sangdong update: from “development” to “active mining operations”
First ore delivered to the ROM pad
Almonty’s most consequential December operational headline is tied to Sangdong, its flagship tungsten project in South Korea.
In a Dec. 16, 2025 release, the company said the first truckload of ore was delivered to the Run-of-Mine (ROM) pad at Sangdong—describing it as a pivotal shift from early-stage development into active mining operations and the final step before commercial production. [2]
The company also outlined the downstream processing path (crushing, grinding, flotation, concentration, drying, packaging) and framed the milestone as part of a broader effort by the U.S., EU, and Korea to diversify away from a tungsten market it described as China-dominated. [3]
Dec. 24 analysis: commissioning timing and commercial production expectations
A key nuance for investors on Dec. 24 is timing.
On Dec. 24, 2025, metals-market outlet SMM reported that Almonty had updated the plan for Sangdong, stating that concentrator commissioning had been postponed into 2026, with commercial production targeted for H1 2026, while mining has begun and first ore was delivered. [4]
That distinction matters for the stock because “mining started” is not the same as “steady-state concentrate shipments.” In mining projects, the market often reprices the story multiple times: first ore, commissioning milestones, first concentrate, first customer deliveries, and then sustained throughput.
The $129.375 million equity raise: what Almonty sold and why it matters
Pricing details: $112.5 million upsized deal at $6.25 per share
On Dec. 8, 2025, Almonty announced the pricing of an upsized U.S. underwritten offering of 18,000,000 common shares at $6.25 per share, for $112.5 million in gross proceeds, with an over-allotment option for an additional 2,700,000 shares. [5]
The company stated proceeds would support:
- the Gentung Browns Lake tungsten project in Montana
- expansion work at Portugal’s Panasqueira mine
- exploration at the Sangdong Molybdenum project
- plus working capital and general corporate purposes [6]
Closing details: full over-allotment exercised, $129.375 million gross
On Dec. 10, 2025, Almonty reported the offering closed with the full exercise of the over-allotment option: 20,700,000 shares sold at $6.25, totaling $129.375 million in aggregate gross proceeds. [7]
The underwriter syndicate was led by BofA Securities as lead bookrunning manager, with Cantor Fitzgerald, D.A. Davidson, and A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners also named. [8]
Market interpretation: dilution vs. de-risking
Big equity raises usually create a tug-of-war in the stock:
- Bear case: dilution and financing overhang
- Bull case: project de-risking, stronger balance sheet, and a clearer runway to execute commissioning and growth plans
Almonty’s messaging leaned heavily toward the second interpretation, with management saying it was fully capitalized for the outlined project work and had no present intention of further offerings under the shelf it had just used. [9]
Shelf withdrawal: a capital-markets signal investors noticed
On Dec. 15, 2025, Almonty announced it was voluntarily withdrawing its short form base shelf prospectus (dated Oct. 31, 2025) and the corresponding Form F-10 registration statement, specifically because—after completing the $129.375 million offering—it did not intend to complete further offerings under those documents. [10]
For stock-watchers, this can be read as a “financing chapter closed (for now)” signal—though it does not eliminate the possibility of future capital raises through other structures if conditions change.
Analyst forecasts for Almonty stock: where 2026 price targets cluster
Because Almonty now trades on multiple exchanges (and because small- to mid-cap miners can have sparse coverage), you’ll see different consensus figures depending on the data provider, timing, and ticker used.
Here’s what the major public aggregators were reporting into late December:
MarketBeat consensus (NASDAQ: ALM)
MarketBeat’s analyst snapshot for ALM listed:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Consensus price target:$10.17
- High / low targets:$12.00 / $6.50
- Covered by: a set including DA Davidson, Oppenheimer, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Weiss Ratings [11]
Fintel-based summaries distributed via Nasdaq.com
Two Nasdaq-hosted pieces attributed to Fintel data showed a lower average target in early-to-mid December:
- Average one-year price target:$6.79 (as of Dec. 6, 2025)
- Range:$1.85 to $10.17 [12]
These figures can diverge from MarketBeat due to methodology (which ratings are considered “current,” timing of updates, and normalization of targets).
TradingView targets (TSX: AII)
For the Toronto listing (TSX: AII), TradingView displayed:
- Price target:14.65 CAD
- Max / min estimates:16.88 CAD / 13.24 CAD
- Overall rating: calculated as Strong Buy based on a group of analysts [13]
Bottom line: public consensus indicators leaned generally constructive on the story, but with wide dispersion—typical for mining companies at (or near) a production inflection point.
The macro backdrop: tungsten prices, China risk, and why “non-China supply” is suddenly a stock catalyst
Almonty’s equity story is tightly coupled to an uncomfortable global reality: tungsten supply is heavily concentrated, and geopolitics are increasingly shaping industrial commodities.
A Reuters report in October highlighted how tungsten prices surged (with knock-on effects for industrial users) following Chinese export controls, noting China’s outsized role in supply. [14]
A separate Reuters analysis earlier in 2025 emphasized the strategic nature of tungsten for civilian and military applications, and referenced the push to secure non-Chinese sources—explicitly including the restart of Sangdong in South Korea by Almonty. [15]
This backdrop helps explain why Almonty press releases repeatedly frame Sangdong not only as a mine, but as part of a broader allied supply-chain strategy. [16]
Fundamentals check: what Almonty reported in Q3 2025
In its Q3 2025 financial results (for the period ended Sept. 30, 2025), Almonty emphasized that Sangdong construction was substantially complete and that ramp-up activities were underway, positioning the company for final commissioning and commercial production. [17]
Notable reported figures and items included:
- Revenue:C$8.7 million in Q3 2025 (up versus the prior-year quarter), attributed largely to tungsten prices and output from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal [18]
- Net income:C$33.2 million, driven primarily by a non-cash warrant liability revaluation gain [19]
- Cash and cash equivalents:C$111.6 million as of Sept. 30, 2025, compared with C$7.8 million as of Dec. 31, 2024, with the increase largely tied to the company’s earlier U.S. financing around its Nasdaq listing [20]
Management also referenced the strategic logic of its Nasdaq presence and the defense/industrial importance of tungsten. [21]
Growth pipeline beyond Sangdong: Panasqueira and U.S. expansion
Panasqueira (Portugal): drilling aimed at output and mine life
Almonty announced a drilling program at Panasqueira designed to define an expansion into a new production level (“Level 4”), support potential annual output increases, and potentially extend mine life. The program described ~14,000 meters of drilling over ~12 months with an estimated €2.5 million investment. [22]
Gentung Browns Lake (Montana): a U.S. tungsten pillar
In November, Almonty announced it had completed the acquisition of a 100% interest in the Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten Project in Beaverhead County, Montana, positioning it as a potential U.S. supply-chain asset and targeting potential production readiness as early as H2 2026 (per company statements). [23]
The company also pointed to existing infrastructure and metallurgy expectations, while referencing historic technical-report figures for resources and recovery. [24]
Risks and pressure points investors are weighing
Even with a strong thematic tailwind, miners at this stage carry real execution risk. The key categories investors typically watch—and that apply here—include:
- Commissioning and ramp-up risk: moving from ore-on-ROM to stable concentrate production is where timelines and costs can slip. [25]
- Commodity and policy risk: tungsten pricing is sensitive to export controls, downstream demand, and substitution; policy shifts can cut both ways. [26]
- Financing/dilution risk: the December raise improves runway, but mining and processing expansions can remain capital intensive. [27]
- Legal and reputational noise: the company has pursued legal action related to statements it characterized as false and misleading, which can distract markets even when not operationally material. [28]
What investors will watch next for ALM stock
From here, the most market-relevant checkpoints are straightforward (and unforgiving):
- Commissioning updates at Sangdong and clarity on commercial production timing (especially after Dec. 24 reporting that commissioning is pushed into 2026). [29]
- Evidence of repeatable throughput and concentrate quality during ramp-up, plus the cadence of customer deliveries. [30]
- Progress on Panasqueira expansion drilling and how quickly it translates into production planning. [31]
- Concrete steps on the U.S. Gentung development path, particularly if Almonty can align timelines with Western procurement demand. [32]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.businesswire.com, 3. www.businesswire.com, 4. news.metal.com, 5. www.businesswire.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. almonty.com, 18. almonty.com, 19. almonty.com, 20. almonty.com, 21. almonty.com, 22. almonty.com, 23. almonty.com, 24. almonty.com, 25. www.businesswire.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.businesswire.com, 29. news.metal.com, 30. www.businesswire.com, 31. almonty.com, 32. almonty.com
