Alphabet Inc. (Google) Class C shares (NASDAQ: GOOG) ended Thursday, December 11, 2025 sharply lower, then steadied in after‑hours trading as investors digested a Waymo robotaxi recall, OpenAI’s launch of GPT‑5.2, and growing worries about an AI spending bubble. Here’s what happened after the bell – and what traders and long‑term investors should watch before the market opens on Friday, December 12, 2025.
1. How Alphabet Traded on December 11, 2025
Regular session: worst of the “Mag 7” on a down AI day
- Closing price & move: Based on multiple price feeds, Alphabet Class C stock finished Thursday around $313 per share, down roughly 2.4% from Wednesday’s close near $321. [1]
- Intraday range: GOOG traded in a wide range from about $309.9 (low) to $322 (high) as volatility swept through mega‑cap tech and AI names. [2]
- A Wall Street Journal live blog noted that Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) fell around 2.5%, making it the weakest performer among the “Magnificent Seven” growth stocks on the day. [3]
The broader backdrop was unusually mixed:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 650 points to a record high, while the Nasdaq slipped ~0.3% as Oracle’s disappointing earnings and heavy AI capex guidance hammered AI‑linked tech stocks. [4]
So Alphabet didn’t fall in a vacuum – the entire “AI trade” came under pressure.
After-hours: modest bounce
After the closing bell:
- On Public.com’s after‑hours feed, GOOG traded around $314.73 at 4:30 p.m. ET, up about 0.3% from its regular‑session close (cited there as $313.70). [5]
- An options‑market snapshot from Investing.com implied an underlying GOOG price of about $314.06 around 8:07 p.m. GMT, consistent with that mild after‑hours rebound. [6]
In other words, the stock clawed back a sliver of the daytime loss but stayed well below Wednesday’s levels – classic “damage control” trading rather than a full‑blown relief rally.
2. The Three Big Stories Hitting Alphabet Right Now
2.1 Waymo recall rattles the robotaxi narrative
The single most tangible stock‑specific headline on December 11 was Waymo’s safety recall:
- Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous‑driving unit, recalled 3,067 vehicles in the U.S. after a software flaw in its fifth‑generation automated driving system caused cars to improperly pass stopped school buses with extended stop arms and flashing red lights, raising crash risk. [7]
- The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said Waymo fixed the issue via a software update and that all affected vehicles were updated by November 17. [8]
A GuruFocus piece (heavily syndicated via Yahoo Finance and TradingView) linked the recall directly to Alphabet’s share price:
- It reported Alphabet shares were down about 2% on Thursday morning as investors processed the recall news and its reputational overhang. [9]
Why it matters:
- Safety & regulation risk: Waymo’s long‑term value depends on regulators and the public trusting its safety record. School‑bus violations are a worst‑case optics scenario.
- Optionality vs. overhang: Robotaxis remain a high‑risk, high‑reward option on Alphabet’s balance sheet. Recalls like this don’t destroy the thesis, but they raise questions about timelines, liability, and margin impact.
2.2 OpenAI’s GPT‑5.2: the newest shock to Google’s AI story
The second punch came from OpenAI, not a traditional stock market rival but Alphabet’s fiercest competitor in generative AI mindshare:
- On Thursday, OpenAI launched GPT‑5.2, calling it its “most capable model” for professional work, with big improvements in coding, spreadsheets, presentations, long‑context tasks and image understanding. [10]
- GPT‑5.2’s release was framed explicitly as a counter to Google’s Gemini 3, which had won praise in November for outscoring earlier OpenAI models on academic reasoning and screen/video tasks. [11]
- MarketWatch and TechCrunch both described GPT‑5.2 as OpenAI “striking back” in the chatbot race after a reported “code red” memo inside OpenAI responding to Google’s recent AI momentum. [12]
Investor takeaway:
- A report from Investor’s Business Daily noted that Google stock fell more than 2% to around $312.44 on Thursday, blaming GPT‑5.2’s debut and broader tech weakness for the move. [13]
- This reinforces a bigger narrative: Alphabet is no longer the clear AI front‑runner, and every high‑profile OpenAI release now invites questions about Google’s future AI moat and monetization.
2.3 AI‑spending jitters and broader market nerves
The third headwind: AI‑related macro worries, particularly around Oracle’s results:
- Oracle’s stock plunged roughly 15% after it reported weaker‑than‑expected revenue and operating income and laid out a huge AI datacenter capex plan (~$50 billion), triggering fears of an AI capex bubble funded by debt. [14]
- Those results “hammered AI stocks,” with Nvidia, Micron and others trading down ~2% and the Nasdaq sliding even as the Dow hit a record. [15]
For Alphabet, this is more about sentiment than fundamentals:
- The market is asking, “Are we overpaying for AI dreams?”
- When one AI heavyweight disappoints, investors de‑risk across the whole AI complex, and Alphabet gets swept into that basket.
3. Fresh Bullish Takes: Forecasts and Long‑Term Analyses
Despite Thursday’s sell‑off, a wave of recent research and commentary remains broadly bullish on Alphabet’s multi‑year outlook.
3.1 “Code Red” — but still a Buy
On December 11, Seeking Alpha published “Alphabet: ‘Code Red’ Is Why I Am Going All‑In At The Top”, highlighting:
- Q3 2025 was a record quarter: Alphabet’s quarterly net revenue topped $100 billion, with earnings up 35% year over year, driven by AI‑powered search, YouTube and Google Cloud. [16]
- Google Cloud Platform grew 34% year over year and built a $155 billion backlog, outpacing both AWS and Azure in growth. [17]
- The author cited a forward P/E of roughly 28x and rated Alphabet a Buy, arguing that AI‑led growth plus strong profitability limit downside. [18]
3.2 Path to a $5 trillion market cap?
A separate analysis syndicated via Finviz and The Motley Fool, “Prediction: Alphabet Could Reach This Valuation by 2028,” lays out a simple but powerful thesis: [19]
- Alphabet’s current market cap is roughly $3.8 trillion.
- To reach $5 trillion by the end of 2028, the stock needs about 9.6% compound annual growth – only slightly above long‑run U.S. equity returns. [20]
- The case rests on a “reasonably valued” megacap with:
- Moderate valuation vs. other Magnificent Seven names,
- Strong revenue growth,
- The highest quarterly net income within the group,
- Healthy margins and massive AI tailwinds.
The author stresses that Alphabet isn’t an “AI lottery ticket” – it’s a cash machine with AI upside.
3.3 Analyst consensus: still a Buy, but upside looks more modest at today’s price
Recent consensus numbers show supportive but not euphoric expectations:
- For GOOG (Class C), MarketBeat tracks 41 analysts with an average 12‑month price target of about $310.54, implying ~1% downside from a reference price of $313.70, with a range from $210 to $400. [21]
- For GOOGL (Class A), a similar sample of analysts points to an average target around $313.33, only a touch above a current price near $312.22. [22]
- MarketWatch lists an average target near $332 and an overall “Buy” recommendation for GOOG, reflecting a broader set of 70+ analysts. [23]
In plain language: Wall Street still likes Alphabet, but at current levels many analysts see solid, not spectacular, 12‑month upside – consistent with a megacap that has already doubled over three years.
3.4 Big‑money vote of confidence: Berkshire Hathaway
One datapoint many investors love to see:
- A recent Nasdaq article highlighted that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought about 17.8 million Alphabet Class A shares (GOOGL) in Q3 2025 at an average price around $209, a stake now up roughly 50% and representing 1.8% of Berkshire’s portfolio. [24]
Buffett’s team isn’t buying Alphabet as a meme stock – they’re buying it as a durable cash compounder.
4. Technical Picture and Quant Forecasts Going Into December 12
For traders eyeing the very short term, several quantitative tools updated on December 11 give a flavor of the risk/reward.
4.1 Support, resistance and momentum
From a pure price standpoint:
- GOOG’s 52‑week range runs from about $140.5 to $328.7, so Thursday’s close near $313 keeps it within ~5% of its all‑time high. [25]
- That means the stock is still in a long‑term uptrend, even after Thursday’s drop.
On the technical indicator side:
- Investing.com’s technical summary for Alphabet Class C currently labels the stock a “Strong Buy” on the daily horizon, with multiple moving‑average and momentum indicators in buy territory. However:
- The 14‑day RSI sits around 43, a neutral‑to‑slightly‑bearish reading.
- The MACD is negative, signaling short‑term downside momentum despite the overall bullish composite. [26]
- Another Investing.com technical sheet (for a related GOOG instrument) flags a “Strong Sell” on several oscillators, underscoring how overbought conditions from Alphabet’s big run have started to cool and volatility remains elevated. [27]
Translation: the trend is still your friend, but the chart is no longer “easy mode” – pullbacks and whipsaws are likely.
4.2 Short-term price channels
- CoinCodex’s model projects that in December 2025, Alphabet will likely trade in a channel between about $308.76 and $321.79, with an average price near $316.72, implying a modest 2.6% annualized return from current levels. [28]
That projected band brackets Thursday’s intraday low and previous resistance, reinforcing the idea that $309–$322 is the near‑term “battle zone” for GOOG.
4.3 Options clues for December 12
Looking at options expiring December 12, 2025:
- Investing.com’s options table shows heavy activity and open interest around the $315 and $320 call and put strikes, with at‑the‑money 315 calls last trading near $2.33 and 315 puts around $3.09 as of the evening snapshot. [29]
This clustering suggests many traders are positioning around the low‑$310s to mid‑$310s as the “pivot zone” for Friday’s session.
5. Fundamental Storylines Beyond the Day-to-Day Noise
Even as traders focus on intraday swings, several medium‑term themes are evolving in the background.
5.1 Data centers, energy and AI infrastructure
On December 8, Reuters reported a major energy and data‑center expansion deal:
- NextEra Energy and Google Cloud are expanding their partnership, which already covers 3.5 gigawatts of generation capacity powering Alphabet operations. [30]
- The companies will develop multiple new U.S. data‑center campuses with dedicated power plants and plan an AI‑powered grid-management product by mid‑2026 to predict equipment problems and improve reliability. [31]
For investors, that underscores two points:
- Alphabet is doubling down on AI‑driven infrastructure, not dialing back.
- The AI boom is tightly coupled to energy markets, which introduces both cost risk and strategic leverage.
5.2 DeepMind’s “automated science laboratory” and AI research push
Multiple outlets (via GuruFocus and Yahoo Finance) note that Alphabet’s DeepMind unit plans to open its first “automated research lab” in the U.K. in 2026, aimed at materials discovery and other science applications. [32]
Combined with Google’s Gemini 3 model and its internal AI infrastructure reorg (including naming Amin Vahdat to lead AI infrastructure build‑out), the company is clearly trying to:
- Accelerate AI R&D,
- Integrate AI deeper into products (from Workspace to YouTube), and
- Control more of its compute stack rather than relying solely on third‑party chips and cloud partners. [33]
5.3 Emerging markets and AI product monetization
Recent GuruFocus coverage also highlights:
- A cheaper “AI Plus” plan in India, signaling Alphabet’s intent to monetize generative AI at multiple price tiers in high‑growth markets. [34]
This matters because:
- Alphabet’s long‑term valuation depends not just on “having powerful models” but on turning those models into recurring, global subscription and advertising revenue.
5.4 Ongoing regulatory and IP pressure
The news tape around Alphabet remains full of legal and regulatory skirmishes, including:
- Reports that Disney issued a cease‑and‑desist letter to Google alleging “massive” copyright infringement related to AI training data. [35]
- Reuters coverage indicating the EU may fine Google next year for favoring its own services, adding to Alphabet’s long list of antitrust challenges. [36]
- A court‑driven resolution bringing Fortnite back to Google Play in the U.S., underscoring the ongoing app‑store regulatory debate. [37]
None of these look existential on their own, but together they reinforce a core risk: Alphabet is permanently under a global regulatory microscope, which can impact margins, product design, and strategic freedom.
6. What to Watch Before the Opening Bell on December 12, 2025
Here’s a concise checklist for the Friday open.
6.1 Pre-market price action and key levels
- Real‑time feeds like TradingView show Alphabet currently trading around $313.5, down about 0.3% over the last 24 hours, suggesting a flat-to-slightly-soft tone ahead of the open. [38]
- Watch how GOOG behaves around:
- $310–$312: short‑term support near Thursday’s low and the lower end of quant‑modeled December ranges. [39]
- $320–$322: recent resistance and the upper bound of that same short‑term channel.
A decisive break below the low‑$310s could invite momentum selling, while a recovery above $320 would signal the dip is being bought aggressively.
6.2 Follow-up headlines on Waymo and GPT‑5.2
Before and after the open, keep an eye out for:
- Further NHTSA commentary or additional incidents related to the Waymo recall. Any sign that regulators see systemic issues could extend the overhang. [40]
- Early enterprise and developer reactions to GPT‑5.2 – if OpenAI’s new model quickly becomes the default for professional workflows, investors may re‑price Google’s AI advantage. [41]
6.3 Sector moves and “AI bubble” narrative
Since Thursday’s pressure on GOOG was partially sympathy selling:
- Watch how Oracle, Nvidia, Microsoft and other AI bellwethers trade in pre‑market and at the open. If the AI complex stabilizes, Alphabet could rebound with the group; if AI‑spending fears intensify, further downside is possible. [42]
6.4 Options expiration dynamics
With significant open interest at the 315 and 320 strikes for weekly options expiring December 12, pinning effects could influence the closing price:
- A drift toward $315 would be consistent with max‑pain scenarios for many option holders. [43]
Short‑term traders should be aware that options flows, not fundamentals alone, may dominate intraday moves on Friday.
7. Alphabet Stock: Big Picture Going Into Friday
Putting it all together:
- Near term (hours to days): GOOG is digesting a sharp pullback driven by Waymo recall headlines, GPT‑5.2 competition, and AI‑spending concerns sparked by Oracle. Volatility is elevated, and the stock is hovering near the lower end of its recent range.
- Medium term (months): Fundamental and sell‑side commentary still paints Alphabet as a profitable AI leader with strong cloud momentum, hefty buybacks/dividends, and potential to approach a $5 trillion valuation by 2028, albeit from a starting point where 12‑month upside looks moderate rather than extreme. [44]
- Key risks: Regulatory and IP battles, ongoing Waymo scrutiny, intense AI competition from OpenAI and Anthropic, and the possibility that AI returns don’t fully justify the sector’s capex boom.
- Key supports: Dominant position in search and YouTube ads, rapidly scaling cloud business, robust balance sheet, and high‑profile institutional backing (including Berkshire Hathaway). [45]
As always, this article is for information and education only and is not personalized investment advice. Anyone considering trading or investing in Alphabet should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation – and, ideally, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
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