Aluminum prices are holding firm on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, with the global benchmark on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hovering around the $2,870–$2,885 per metric ton area—roughly $1.30 per pound—as traders weigh a new round of supply headlines against a still-choppy macro backdrop. [1]
The latest LME three‑month (3M) aluminum reference on widely followed market trackers shows the contract around $2,879.5/t. [2] Meanwhile, the LME’s own public page continues to display a day‑delayed 3‑month closing price (rather than a live feed), underscoring a key point for readers: “aluminum price today” can vary depending on whether you’re looking at official delayed exchange data, real‑time feeds, or region‑specific physical prices. [3]
What’s new on Dec 16 is not just the price print—it’s the narrative around 2026 supply tightness. Two themes are dominating today’s flow of news and research notes:
- Supply risk is back in the headlines (and it’s energy-linked). [4]
- Major banks are leaning more constructive on 2026 pricing, with forecasts clustering around and above the psychologically important $3,000/t level. [5]
Below is what matters most for anyone tracking aluminum markets today—manufacturers, traders, investors, and procurement teams alike.
Aluminum price today: where the key benchmarks stand
LME 3‑month aluminum: tracked around $2,879.5 per metric ton on Dec 16 in commonly referenced market quotes. [6]
LME (public site) reference: the LME’s public aluminum page displays a day‑delayed 3‑month closing price rather than a live quote. [7]
For additional near-term context, Reuters’ most recent base-metals market reporting (late Dec 15 into Dec 16 time zones, depending on region) also had LME aluminum trading around $2,870/t, reflecting how tightly the market has been consolidating in the high‑$2,800s. [8]
Why “today’s aluminum price” depends on where you buy it
Most physical buyers don’t pay “LME flat.” They pay LME + a regional premium (plus freight, financing, and sometimes tariffs). This is crucial in late 2025, because premiums have been doing as much work as the exchange price:
- In the United States, Reuters reported the duty‑paid Midwest premium hit record territory around 88.10 cents/lb (about $1,942/t)—a huge add-on to the underlying LME level. [9]
- In Japan, a key benchmark market for Asia, suppliers have been pitching Q1 2026 premiums around $190–$203/t, sharply higher quarter-on-quarter in reported offers. [10]
That means two buyers looking at the “same” aluminum market can face dramatically different all‑in costs depending on geography and contract structure.
What’s driving aluminum prices on Dec 16, 2025
1) Smelter economics: South32’s Mozal decision puts “power risk” front and center
One of the biggest aluminum stories today is South32’s announcement that it will place the Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique under care and maintenance by March 2026 after failing to secure a long-term electricity supply deal. The company flagged one‑time costs tied to the shutdown decision, and the news immediately refocused the market on how fragile smelter economics can be when power terms break down. [11]
Why this matters to price: aluminum is famously “electricity in solid form.” When power negotiations fail—or when hydro conditions tighten—production becomes vulnerable. Today’s Mozal news is being read as a reminder that, even with high nominal prices, the supply side can still surprise.
2) Upstream supply and geopolitics: bauxite and alumina remain part of the story
Aluminum prices aren’t just about smelters; they’re also about the pipeline feeding them.
On Dec 16, Reuters reported Guinea is in discussions with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) over a potential bauxite supply deal tied to Guinea’s state-owned Nimba Mining, after earlier disputes and license actions involving EGA’s Guinea operations. In plain terms: bauxite supply chains are being renegotiated in real time, and Guinea’s policy posture continues to shape the cost and security of upstream feedstock. [12]
Separately, Reuters also reported on a Russian court ruling involving Rusal and Rio Tinto connected to alumina assets and sanctions-era disputes—another illustration that alumina flows (and ownership rights) remain politically sensitive even years after initial sanctions shocks. [13]
Markets don’t always reprice instantly on upstream headlines, but over time, bauxite/alumina stability influences smelter costs, margins, and the incentive to restart or curtail capacity.
3) China’s export squeeze: less metal leaving China has tightened the “rest of world” balance
A critical backdrop to late‑2025 strength is that China has been shipping less refined aluminum and aluminum products into global markets.
Reuters analysis last week highlighted that China’s aluminum exports for the first 11 months fell 9.2% to 5.59 million tons, while China’s production has been running close to its annual cap and domestic demand absorbed more supply—helping push LME prices to $2,920/t on Dec 5, the highest since May 2022, and marking a steep rebound from the year’s earlier lows. [14]
In other words: even if the LME price prints in London, a major part of the “why” is structural—less Chinese metal available to balance deficits elsewhere.
4) Macro tone: a cautious market, a softer dollar, and the rate path in focus
On the macro side, Reuters’ global markets coverage on Dec 16 described investors as cautious ahead of key U.S. data and central bank meetings, with the U.S. dollar near two‑month lows—a backdrop that can mechanically support USD‑priced commodities like aluminum (all else equal), even as risk sentiment remains fragile. [15]
For aluminum specifically, macro often acts as the “volume knob” on top of the supply/demand fundamentals: a softer dollar and easier-rate expectations can support prices; risk-off waves can pressure them—even if the physical market is tight.
Today’s key aluminum headlines (Dec 16, 2025)
Here are the market-moving items dated Dec 16 that aluminum traders are actively pricing in:
- South32 to mothball Mozambique’s Mozal smelter by March 2026 after power talks collapse—raising supply-risk visibility tied to electricity economics. [16]
- Guinea and EGA in talks over a bauxite supply arrangement after earlier disputes—highlighting strategic reshaping of upstream inputs. [17]
- Morgan Stanley revises base-metals outlook and sees aluminum reaching $3,250/t by Q2 2026, citing demand outpacing supply. [18]
- Bank of America flags an aluminum deficit next year and sees prices pushing above $3,000/t, while emphasizing uncertainty around how much Indonesian capacity ultimately delivers. [19]
These are not abstract research notes: they reinforce a single market message—2026 is increasingly being framed as a deficit story, not a surplus one.
Forecasts and outlook: where analysts see aluminum going in 2026
Forecast dispersion is still wide (as always in commodities), but several large institutions are now pointing in a broadly bullish direction.
Morgan Stanley: $3,250/t by Q2 2026
Morgan Stanley’s latest update on Dec 16 projects aluminum prices reaching $3,250 per ton by the second quarter of 2026, explicitly tying the move to demand outpacing supply. [20]
Bank of America: deficit next year, prices above $3,000/t
A Reuters-fed summary of Bank of America’s view points to a deficit in aluminum next year with prices pushing above $3,000/t, while also highlighting a key swing factor: how quickly and how fully Indonesia’s smelter ramp-up translates into deliverable metal. [21]
ING: deficit framework with a Mozal “tightness kicker”
Earlier this month, ING’s commodities research argued aluminum remains in deficit into 2026 (around 200 kt in its base case), and explicitly noted that if Mozal shuts down, the deficit could widen materially (ING cited ~600 kt in that scenario). ING’s price view in that work referenced an average around $2,900/t in 2026. [22]
What’s notable today is that ING’s Mozal sensitivity is no longer hypothetical—South32 is now planning care-and-maintenance by March 2026. [23]
The practical takeaway from today’s forecasts
Even among bullish banks, the “make-or-break” variables keep repeating:
- China’s capacity discipline and how much incremental supply is actually available for export. [24]
- Indonesia’s ramp-up pace (and whether it arrives smoothly, or in starts and stops). [25]
- Energy pricing and power contracts for smelters outside low-cost regions (Mozal is today’s high-profile example). [26]
Premiums are the second “price chart” (even when the LME is flat)
If the LME is the headline number, premiums are where many real-world buyers feel the market.
U.S. Midwest premium: still historically elevated
Reuters has documented how the U.S. premium structure has been distorted by trade policy and tight local availability, with record levels implying dramatically higher delivered costs versus LME alone. [27]
Japan (Asia benchmark): Q1 2026 offers jump
Reported offers for Japan’s Q1 2026 premium—often treated as an Asian benchmark—have been in the $190–$203/t range, signaling suppliers believe the physical market tightness will extend into early 2026. [28]
When premiums rise while the LME holds steady, it’s often a sign the physical market is tighter than the paper market suggests.
What to watch next: the catalysts that could move aluminum from here
Aluminum is entering year-end with the kind of setup that can produce sharp moves in either direction. The next price leg is likely to be determined by a handful of identifiable catalysts:
- Power and production updates from large smelters
Mozal is today’s story, but the broader question is whether more operations face renegotiations or curtailments as contracts roll. [29] - China’s export availability and policy signals
The market has already reacted to reduced export flow; any reversal—or further tightening—could quickly change the tone. [30] - Indonesia’s incremental supply (the “swing factor”)
Multiple forecasts now hinge on whether Indonesian capacity arrives on time and at scale. [31] - Macro volatility (rates and the dollar)
With markets on edge around U.S. data and central bank decisions, currency and risk sentiment can overpower fundamentals in the short run. [32] - Rules and regulation in metals trading
The LME has outlined plans for proposed position-limit rule changes starting in 2026, a structural factor that could influence liquidity and positioning behavior over time. [33] - Europe’s carbon cost framework (CBAM)
A Reuters report on an EU CBAM draft suggests certain aluminum imports could face higher-than-expected emissions costs from 2026—policy that can reshape trade flows and premiums, especially into Europe. [34]
Bottom line: aluminum stays firm today, and the 2026 debate is shifting toward “deficit risk”
As of Dec 16, 2025, aluminum’s benchmark pricing remains anchored near the upper end of its recent range—around $2,880/t—but the bigger story is the growing weight of supply-risk narratives. [35]
With South32 moving toward a Mozal shutdown timeline, Guinea/EGA bauxite talks highlighting upstream uncertainty, and major banks projecting $3,000–$3,250/t territory in 2026, the market is increasingly trading as if the long era of “easy availability” is fading—at least for now. [36]
References
1. www.metal.com, 2. www.metal.com, 3. www.lme.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.metal.com, 7. www.lme.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.alcircle.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. think.ing.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.tradingview.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.alcircle.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.tradingview.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.metal.com, 36. www.reuters.com
