Amazon (AMZN) Stock Outlook After November 21, 2025: AI Mega-Deals, AWS Growth and Wall Street Price Targets

Updated: December 11, 2025

Meta description: Amazon (AMZN) stock has bounced modestly since November 21, 2025, as Wall Street leans into AI, AWS and advertising growth. Here’s what the latest news, forecasts and analyst calls say about Amazon’s outlook.

1. Where Amazon Stock Stands Now

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is trading around $231–232 per share as of mid‑December 2025. StockAnalysis and Benzinga data show a last close of $231.78 on December 10, 2025. ^[1]

On November 21, 2025, Amazon closed at $220.69, up about 1.6% on heavy volume of roughly 68.5 million shares. ^[2]

From November 21 to December 10, the stock has climbed roughly 5%, modestly outperforming the broader market over that span and recovering part of a late‑November pullback that briefly erased its 2025 gains. MarketWatch noted that by late November, AMZN’s earlier +16% year‑to‑date rally had been completely unwound, leaving the stock about 1% down for 2025 as investors reassessed AI valuations. ^[3]

Key trading context:

52‑week range: about $161.38 to $258.60, with the high set on November 3, 2025. ^[4]
Valuation snapshot (late November): MarketBeat data put Amazon at a P/E ratio near 33, P/E/G ~1.5, and a market cap around $2.3 trillion, with roughly 72% institutional ownership. ^[5]

In short, AMZN is trading well below its early‑November highs but above its late‑November lows, with sentiment oscillating between enthusiasm for AI‑driven growth and concern about heavy capital spending.

2. What Happened Around November 21, 2025?

2.1 Share-price volatility and profit-taking

The days leading into November 21 were volatile. On November 20, MarketBeat reported that Amazon shares fell about 2.5% to roughly $217, with trading volume running about 10% above the stock’s average. ^[6]

Despite the drop, the same report highlighted that analysts continued to lift price targets following Amazon’s better‑than‑expected third‑quarter results:

Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”, with most firms rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy. ^[7]
Average price target at that time: roughly $294–295 per share. ^[8]

By November 21, the stock stabilized and closed higher on the day, even as broader markets were buffeted by debates over whether AI spending and mega‑cap tech valuations had gone too far. ^[9]

2.2 Small insider sale: VP Shelley Reynolds

On November 21, Amazon Vice President Shelley Reynolds filed a Form 144 with the SEC, indicating an intention to sell 2,695 shares of AMZN through Morgan Stanley Smith Barney under a pre‑arranged 10b5‑1 trading plan. ^[10]

This is a relatively small transaction in the context of Amazon’s executive share ownership and does not necessarily indicate a change in the company’s fundamental outlook. It does, however, add to the backdrop of modest insider selling after a multi‑year rally. ^[11]

3. Fundamentals: Q3 2025 Earnings and AI-Heavy Capex

Although Q3 2025 earnings landed before November 21, they are central to every forecast and analyst note published since.

3.1 Headline Q3 FY 2025 results

Independent analysis from Futurum and Amazon’s own investor materials show that for Q3 FY 2025 Amazon delivered: ^[12]

Revenue:$180.2 billion, up ~13% year‑on‑year, beating Wall Street expectations of about $177.8 billion.
Segment revenue:
- North America: $106.3B (+11% YoY)
- International: $40.9B (+14% YoY)
- AWS: $33.0B (+20% YoY), marking a clear reacceleration.
Operating income: about $17.4B (margin ~9.7%) including $4.3B in special charges. Adjusted for those charges, operating income would have been roughly $21.7B.
Net income:$21.2B, up around 38% YoY.
Diluted EPS:$1.95, up ~36% YoY and well ahead of consensus estimates. ^[13]

Management guided Q4 2025 revenue to a range of $206–213B and operating income to $21–26B, signaling confidence in holiday‑quarter demand despite ongoing heavy investment. ^[14]

3.2 AWS: reaccelerating growth and enormous backlog

The Q3 report and subsequent analyst commentary paint AWS as Amazon’s primary growth and profit engine going into 2026: ^[15]

AWS revenue growth reaccelerated to ~20% YoY, supported by surging demand for AI workloads.
Run rate: AWS is running at roughly $132B in annualized revenue. ^[16]
Backlog: AWS’s contract backlog hit about $200B, with management noting that October bookings alone exceeded total Q3 deal volume, pointing to strong forward demand. ^[17]
Capacity build‑out: AWS has added more than 3.8 gigawatts of power capacity in the last 12 months and plans further additions, with overall capacity expected to roughly double by FY 2027. ^[18]

Futurum highlights the company’s focus on custom silicon (Trainium), agentic AI infrastructure (AgentCore) and Amazon Bedrock as the core of a multi‑year AI monetization runway. ^[19]

3.3 Retail and advertising: the AI flywheel

Beyond cloud, Amazon’s stores and advertising businesses are also being reshaped by AI and logistics enhancements: ^[20]

Ads revenue in Q3 reached about $17.7B, up ~22% YoY, powered by sponsored products, video ads and new inventory via partnerships with Netflix, Spotify and SiriusXM. ^[21]
The Rufus AI shopping assistant has been used by roughly 250 million customers this year; customers who use Rufus are significantly more likely to complete purchases, with management expecting over $10B in incremental annualized sales from Rufus alone. ^[22]
Same‑day/next‑day delivery has expanded to over 1,000 U.S. cities and towns, with plans to reach 2,300+ locations by the end of 2025, and rural communities with fast delivery access have increased by about 60% in four months. ^[23]
Over 1.3 million third‑party sellers are using generative‑AI tools to create product listings, supporting a 62% third‑party unit mix and broadening selection. ^[24]

These dynamics underpin the bullish view that Amazon’s retail, logistics and advertising businesses form a self‑reinforcing flywheel, particularly as AI improves search, recommendations and fulfillment efficiency. ^[25]

4. New AI and Cloud Catalysts Since November 21, 2025

4.1 A $38 billion AWS–OpenAI partnership

One of the most significant recent developments is the multi‑year strategic partnership between AWS and OpenAI, announced in early November and heavily referenced in late‑November and December analyst reports. ^[26]

Key points:

Deal size: AWS and OpenAI agreed to a $38 billion, seven‑year commitment for OpenAI to run its advanced AI workloads on AWS infrastructure. ^[27]
Scale: OpenAI will leverage clusters comprising hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs and the ability to scale to tens of millions of CPUs on Amazon EC2 UltraServers. ^[28]
Timeline: Capacity deployment is expected to complete by the end of 2026, with options to expand into 2027 and beyond. ^[29]

Morgan Stanley’s Brian Nowak cites this deal as a major factor behind his $315 price target and forecasts for 25–27% AWS growth, arguing that it materially expands AWS’s backlog and reinforces its position in AI infrastructure. ^[30]

4.2 AWS re:Invent 2025: Graviton5, Trainium3 and Nova

At AWS re:Invent 2025 (Nov. 30–Dec. 4), Amazon unveiled a flood of AI‑ and cloud‑focused innovations that directly influence medium‑term profitability and differentiation: ^[31]

Graviton5 custom CPU

New Graviton5 processors power the latest M9g EC2 instances, delivering up to 25% higher performance than the previous generation and packing 192 CPU cores with a cache that is roughly 5x larger. ^[32]
Over half of new AWS CPU capacity added in the last year is Graviton‑based, and 98% of the top 1,000 EC2 customers already use Graviton in some form, underscoring broad adoption and cost advantages. ^[33]

Trainium3 UltraServers (AI accelerators)

Trainium3 UltraServers combine up to 144 of AWS’s first 3nm AI chips in a single system, delivering up to 4.4x more compute and 4x greater energy efficiency than Trainium2 UltraServers. ^[34]
Customers like Anthropic and others are cutting AI training and inference costs by as much as 50% and reducing training times from months to weeks. Amazon Bedrock is already serving production workloads on Trainium3. ^[35]

Nova 2 models, Nova Forge and frontier agents

Amazon expanded its Nova model family with new models targeted at reasoning, multimodal input (text, image, video, audio), code generation and conversational AI, touting industry‑leading price‑performance for many workloads. ^[36]
Nova Forge introduces “open training,” letting enterprises blend pre‑trained checkpoints with their own data to create tailored frontier‑grade models without starting from scratch. ^[37]
AWS also announced three “frontier agents”—Kiro, AWS Security Agent and AWS DevOps Agent—designed to act as virtual developers, security consultants and SRE/on‑call teams that can run autonomously for hours or days. ^[38]

AWS AI Factories and AgentCore

AWS AI Factories allow customers to deploy dedicated AI infrastructure (NVIDIA GPUs, Trainium, Bedrock, SageMaker) inside their own data centers, addressing data‑residency and latency needs while still tapping AWS services. ^[39]
Amazon Bedrock AgentCore added new policy, evaluation and memory capabilities, helping developers build safer, more reliable AI agents at scale and already seeing uptake from enterprise customers like PGA TOUR, MongoDB and Swisscom. ^[40]

Collectively, these announcements are central to the bullish thesis that AWS can grow faster than overall cloud spending, monetize AI more efficiently than GPU‑only rivals and gradually expand margins as custom silicon ramps. ^[41]

4.3 Google–Amazon multicloud network to curb outages

On December 4, 2025, AndroidCentral reported that Amazon and Google have teamed up on a new multicloud networking service designed to improve “reliable connectivity” and “network interoperability”, with the explicit goal of reducing the impact of major outages like the October 20 AWS incident that briefly took down large parts of the internet. ^[42]

For investors, this move:

Addresses a key operational risk—large‑scale cloud outages.
Signals that AWS is willing to collaborate in a multi‑cloud world, rather than assuming every customer will standardize on one provider.

While it’s too early to quantify revenue impact, it adds another piece to Amazon’s reliability and enterprise‑readiness story.

5. How Wall Street Sees Amazon After November 21, 2025

Analyst activity has been intense since mid‑November, and the tone is overwhelmingly positive, even as some highlight valuation and AI‑profitability risks.

5.1 Consensus: Strong Buy with double‑digit upside

StockAnalysis aggregates data from 47 analysts and shows: ^[43]

Consensus rating:Strong Buy
Average 12‑month price target:$284.19
- Implies about +22–23% upside from roughly $231–232.
Target range:$195 (low) to $340 (high).

Analysts also expect robust fundamental growth:

2025 revenue: about $729B (up ~14% vs. 2024).
2026 revenue: roughly $811B (up ~11% vs. 2025).
2025 EPS: around $7.28 vs $5.53 in 2024 (up ~32%).
2026 EPS: about $8.13, implying ~12% EPS growth in 2026. ^[44]

Benzinga’s analyst‑rating dashboard, based on 39 analysts, similarly shows: ^[45]

Consensus rating:Buy
Average price target:$291.44
High target:$340 (Wedbush, Dec. 3, 2025)
Low target:$230 (Bernstein, May 2025)

The three most recent calls (Guggenheim, Rosenblatt, Wedbush) have an average target of about $315, implying roughly 35–37% upside from current levels. ^[46]

In Kiplinger’s list of top‑rated S&P 500 stocks using S&P Global Market Intelligence data, Amazon sports a consensus recommendation score of 1.33 on a 1–5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy, placing it firmly in the “elite” Strong Buy cohort alongside Microsoft and Nvidia. ^[47]

5.2 TD Cowen: “Best idea” among mega‑cap internet stocks

A MarketWatch‑syndicated report from TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge (December 10, 2025) names Amazon his top mega‑cap internet stock idea heading into 2026, citing three main pillars: ^[48]

AWS reacceleration and AI backlog
- AWS revenue growth has re‑accelerated to around 20% YoY.
- TD Cowen highlights the $38B OpenAI deal and AWS’s $200B backlog as reasons to raise long‑term AWS revenue estimates, with some projections pointing to over $350B in AWS revenue by 2030. ^[49]
Advertising scale and profitability
- Amazon’s ads business has grown over 20% annually since 2019, and TD Cowen sees it reaching roughly $68B in revenue and contributing around one‑third of Amazon’s operating income by the mid‑2020s. ^[50]
E‑commerce and grocery expansion
- The firm emphasizes Amazon’s same‑day grocery push, with a target of 2,300 U.S. sites by the end of 2025, and ongoing investments in automation and robotics to improve margins. ^[51]

Blackledge maintains a Buy rating and a $300 price target, implying roughly 30% upside from recent levels. ^[52]

5.3 Morgan Stanley: Rebound potential after 2025 gains were “wiped out”

Another widely cited MarketWatch piece, summarizing Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak’s view, argues that Amazon’s 2025 stock gains being “wiped out” may be an opportunity rather than a warning sign. ^[53]

Highlights from that analysis:

Nowak maintains an Overweight rating and a $315 price target.
He sees AWS as the key driver of a 2026 rebound, modeling 25–27% AWS growth depending on how quickly backlog converts to revenue.
The OpenAI partnership and expanding AI backlog are central to his thesis that AWS can sustain above‑market growth. ^[54]
At the same time, the note acknowledges that some on Wall Street question the profitability of AI workloads compared to traditional cloud services, and that AI infrastructure spending has led to bouts of risk‑off trading in 2025. ^[55]

The core message: the fundamentals are improving faster than the stock price, in Morgan Stanley’s view.

5.4 Other notable recent calls and targets

GuruFocus aggregates a series of late‑2025 updates: ^[56]

BofA Securities – Justin Post
- Rating: Buy
- Price target raised from $272 to $303 (Dec. 3, 2025), an 11.4% increase.
Wells Fargo – Ken Gawrelski
- Rating: Overweight
- Price target increased from $292 to $295 (Dec. 2, 2025).
Oppenheimer – Jason Helfstein
- Rating: Outperform
- Price target raised from $290 to $305 (Dec. 1, 2025).
Rosenblatt – Barton Crockett
- Rating: Buy, with a $305 target reiterated on Nov. 25, 2025.
Mizuho – Lloyd Walmsley
- Rating: Outperform
- Price target lifted from $300 to $315 on Nov. 4, 2025.
Rothschild & Co – Alex Haissl
- Downgraded to Neutral on Nov. 18, 2025, with a $250 target, highlighting valuation concerns and execution risk.

GuruFocus also notes that across 71 analysts, the average one‑year price target is about $290 (high $360, low $227), implying ~25% upside from a reference price around $231. ^[57]

6. Risks and Bearish Talking Points

Despite the overwhelmingly bullish analyst tone, several risks and concerns appear repeatedly in recent commentary: ^[58]

Massive capital expenditures
- Amazon expects about $125B in CapEx in 2025 and likely more in 2026, heavily skewed toward AI and cloud infrastructure. Elevated spending can compress free cash flow and operating margins in the near term, especially if demand lags capacity. ^[59]
AI workload profitability uncertainty
- While AI demand is strong, some analysts question whether AI workloads generate margins comparable to traditional cloud services, given the higher hardware and energy costs, especially if pricing pressure intensifies. ^[60]
Competitive pressure from other hyperscalers
- Amazon faces aggressive competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, both of which are racing to roll out their own custom chips, AI agents and model ecosystems. The Google–AWS multicloud partnership, while positive for reliability, also underscores that many large customers will spread workloads across clouds, limiting any single provider’s share. ^[61]
Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny
- Amazon continues to operate under intense regulatory attention globally, from antitrust to labor and data privacy issues. Adverse rulings could affect business practices or profitability, particularly in advertising and marketplace operations. (This is a structural, ongoing risk rather than a November‑specific one.)
Valuation sensitivity to sentiment
- With a P/E in the low‑30s and expectations for double‑digit revenue and EPS growth, Amazon’s valuation is sensitive to any slowdown, disappointment in AWS growth, or renewed risk‑off moves in AI‑linked names. ^[62]

7. Bottom Line for Investors

From November 21, 2025 through mid‑December, the story around Amazon stock has crystallized into a few key themes:

AWS is reaccelerating with ~20% revenue growth, a $200B backlog, and a deepening AI stack (Trainium, Nova, Bedrock, AgentCore) designed to capture the next wave of AI workloads. ^[63]
The $38B OpenAI deal and a string of AI‑infrastructure announcements at re:Invent 2025 have reinforced the narrative that AWS will be a central player in frontier‑model training and inference – and that Amazon is willing to spend aggressively to stay ahead. ^[64]
Retail, logistics and ads are benefiting from AI features like Rufus and Help Me Decide, faster same‑day delivery, and expanded media partnerships, lifting both engagement and monetization. ^[65]
Wall Street’s stance is strongly positive, with consensus ratings in the Buy / Strong Buy range, average price targets around $285–$295, and several high‑profile firms (TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Wedbush, Rosenblatt) projecting 20–30%+ upside over the next 12 months. ^[66]

At the same time, investors face real trade‑offs:

The stock’s recent pullback reflects concerns that AI and cloud spending booms can overshoot, especially when they require tens of billions in annual CapEx. ^[67]
Amazon’s valuation assumes that these investments will translate into sustained double‑digit growth and improving margins over the next several years. If that fails to materialize, the downside could be meaningful. ^[68]

For readers and potential investors, the key questions now are:

Do you believe AWS can maintain a 15–20%+ growth trajectory as AI workloads scale, despite intensifying competition?
Are you comfortable with Amazon’s willingness to prioritize long‑term AI infrastructure spending over near‑term margin maximization?
Does the current price—roughly 10–11% below its November high and trading at a discount to some Big Tech peers—offer enough margin of safety for your risk tolerance?